Nadeau: Churchill Play of the Day Thurs 5.18.23
| “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau | |
| Date: | 5/18/2023 |
| Featured Track/Race: | Churchill Downs – Race 5 |
| Race overview: | A deep 30k MCL sprinting on the main going 6 ½ Fs, in a race that serves as a swing race in all the horizontal exotics. |
| Pace: | It looks hot and contested, as there are a trio on that want to motor early, which should put #8 KUPP (4-1) in a good spot from close range towards their outside. |
| Trends: | With a few exceptions, the main track was very speedy last week when fast (it was an off-track Sunday), so leaning towards horses with tactical speed, at the very least, seems the play. |
| Best Play: | #8 KUPP (4-1): Class dropper was a bit uncontrollable on the lead at OP last time but has been freshened and returns as a first-time gelding, did well to draw outside the other speed, and looks poised off that recent bullet drill to finally break through. |
| Bet Types: | Aggressive WP bet and single to end the early Pk5/Pk4, in the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well. |
| Meet/POD Stats: | CD Meet: 105-15-13-11 ($1.23/$4.27 ROI through 5/14)
CD POD: 10-2-1-0 ($2.12/$4.21 ROI through 5/14)
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