Applebee: Closer look Mother Goose/Forty Niner BAQ Sat 10.26.24
Happy Mother Goose Day!
There are three graded stakes that anchor a nice card at the Big A today. After finishing second and third behind Thorpedo Anna respectively Gun Song and Tarifa run in the Mother Goose.
Trivia Question: Next week is the Breeders’ Cup. When is the last time New York hosted this championship event?
Race 8 – The Forty Niner – Grade III
One Mile on the Dirt for Three Year Olds and Upward
- Repo Rocks: Last out he was impressive in the two turn Parx Dirt Mile where he was up on a hot pace early and still hung on for second as Coastal Mission came running to get the W (91 Beyer). Definitely enjoys a one turn mile with big monster performance including a 109 Beyer in the 2023 Westchester. The Pick.
- Messier: Rick Dutrow enters this one here off a five plus month layoff as Messier is coming back from surgery for chip in his knee. When we last saw him, he was winning the one turn mile Westchester Stakes in May with a 97 Beyer. That followed a win in the Excelsior Stakes (94 Beyer). Has several sharp works leading up to this with a maintenance work on Tuesday. Should be up on the pace. Win candidate.
- Stage Raider: Has not been in great form since returning in June from a six month layoff. He faded in the slop last out in the Ack Ack and was no threat two back in the Monmouth Cup. Beyers are lite and he needs to recapture his performance levels from a year ago. Passing.
- Jefferson Street: Three year old tackles elders as he stretches out from 7F to the flat mile. He won a high priced allowance race at the Spa with a 102 Beyer but hasn’t repeated that level in three starts since. Blinkers go ON. Prat picks up the mount. Possible piece.
- Winit: Gelding has primarily been running in optional claiming company. Performs best when he can set the pace – that does not appear likely today. Lasix comes OFF. Looking elsewhere.
- Nelson Avenue: Wayne Potts has moved this gelding forward since claiming him in August. The last two efforts had Dylan Davis in the irons and both were wins as he scored on the front end with a 94 Beyer in his last race. Two for two going a mile. Lasix comes OFF. Value play.
- Coastal Mission: Won the Parx Dirt Mile last out with a sweeping run on the turn and then hung on to hold off several challengers (92 Beyer). Moves back to graded stakes company today where he has been competitive but hasn’t gotten a top prize. Versatile runner who will probably stalk in this field. Hits the board.
- 8. Film Star: Bested by Coastal Mission and Repo Rocks in Parx Dirt Mile where was off the pace and didn’t His three races during his five year old season haven’t measured up to his four year old campaign and now he moves to open company. Irad stays aboard for Lind Rice. Would be a surprise.
Picks 1-2-7-6
Race 10 – The Mother Goose – Grade II
One Mile and One Furlong on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies
- Dorothy’s Dream: Broke her maiden over this track and has had quite a year with five wins from seven starts primarily running at Finger Lakes. Last out she was game at Delaware Park to win by head after swinging wide. Her best performances have come with Lasix which comes off today – plus she is far deeper water with this field. Demand a price.
- Call Another Play: Comes out of an ill-fated attempt on the turf in the Virginia Oaks. Her best recent effort was in the Delaware Oaks where she saved ground the whole way but was boxed in the rail (79 Beyer). She has shown she can get nine furlongs with a decent third in the Black Eyed Susan where she was behind Gun Song. Possible slice.
- Tarifa: Brad Cox trainee was great earlier in the year with wins in the Rachel Alexandra and Fairground Oaks. Took some time off after a poor Kentucky Oaks performance when she returned in August, she was outrun in an overnight stake at Ellis Park but then was decent in the Cotillion but no match for Gun Song and Thorpedo Anna (88 Beyer). Cox barn is hot and this is the third race of the form cycle. Dangerous.
- Pretty Ana: Chad Brown ran this filly on the turf twice after picking her up from the Asmussen barn. She was a decent third in her most recent turf try but was had no excuse. Dirt figs do not impress. Not sure what the plan is here. Lasix comes OFF. Passing.
- Gun Song: Was excellent in the Cotillion last out at Parx where she battled Thorpedo Anna in the stretch only losing by a neck (93 Beyer) at 44-1. A repeat of that effort puts her in the winner’s circle. Six of eight in the exacta this year with wins in the Cathryn Sophia Stakes at Parx and Black Eyed Susan. Should press the pace and pounce in the lane. The Pick.
- Life Talk: Had a promising two year old season with a win in the Demoiselle but that form hasn’t carried over to her three year old season. She started the year with a no show in the Gazelle and then was off for five months. Ran well enough in the Seneca Overnight Stakes but was bested by Miss Justify. Second off the layoff. Underneath player.
- Headline Numbers: Chad/Klaravich runner was dominate breaking her maiden going the flat mile over this track (85 Beyer). She then came back at the Spa and was a decent second going nine furlongs but was placed first after the winner was DQed (82 Beyer). Now she moves to Grade II company. Lasix comes OFF. Underlay.
- Just Music: Consistent performer for Linda Rice at the optional claimer level now tries graded stakes company. The last three races have been her best but she will need a step forward from those performances to contend here. Lasix comes OFF. Does her best running stalking the pace but she is likely to be far back today. Draws outside. Passing.
Picks 5-3-7-6
Trivia Answer: The last time New York hosted the Breeders’ Cup was in 2005 at Belmont Park. Let’s hope the new Belmont Park will be a future site for the event.