Happy Breeders’ Cup Day! 

Today is the big day. We have eight Grade 1s and many of these races will determine divisional championships for 2024. Both the Classic and the Turf are pretty wide open affairs where you can go five or six different directions. 
 

Race 7 – Breeders’ Cup Turf– Grade I 

One Mile and One Half on the Turf for Three Year Olds and Upward  

1. Rousham Park: Long shot Japanese runner won four of six starts as a four year old but has not followed that success up as a five year old with no wins from three starts and didn’t show much in last two outings. Passing.
2. Emily Upjohn: This is not the first time this mare has competed against the colts but she is zero for six on the year and four of those were vs. the ladies. Last out in the Prix Vermille at Longchamps she sat a nice trip and had clear run but didn’t get close until late. But that close up third place result was behind the top two finishers in a little race called the Prix De L’Arc d’Triomphe. Use in verticals.
3. Shahryar: This international traveler was a decent third in this race last year finishing behind Auguste Rodin. This six year old has been lightly campaigned making only two starts before today in the calendar year. Ran well behind Rebel’s Romance in the Sheema Classic where he had a perfect trip but was no threat to the winner. Hasn’t won in two plus years. Passing.
4. Luxembourg: Reunited with Ryan Moore who go the best performance to date in the Coronation Cup at Epsom Downs where he went to the lead and then was strongest late.  Wants to be up on the pace and get the distance. Dangerous.
5. Jayarebe: Three year old French bred gets a big time class test as he moves into his first Grade I after defeating elders at Longchamp a month ago in the Prix Dollar where he was prominent throughout and held off a late closer. Tries a mile and half for the first time. Has been on the improve throughout his three year old campaign. Underneath player.
6. Far Bridge: Won the Joe Hirsch Turf with an excellent ride by Joel Rosario as he saved ground and dove to the inside to get the jump on the competition (101 Beyer).  That followed a front end score in the Sword Dancer where he walked on the lead. Expect him to be coming late.
7. Grand Sonata: Pletcher trainee won at Kentucky Downs last out going today’s distance where the rail opened up as they turned for home and he slipped through (99 Beyer). That was his first win in over a year. Not fast enough.
8. Cabo Spirit: So Cal based gelding has two wins over the track but his Beyer top of 97 would appear to be well short of what is needed. Given the front end score in the John Henry he is likely to be a pace setter. Passing.

9. El Encinal: Argentine bred hasn’t shown much in two North American starts. Overmatched.  
10. Wingspan: This is the fifth race for this three year old filly since mid-August. The most recent was a good performance at Ascot two weeks ago where she had the lead until late on. Moves to Grade I company and takes on the boys for the first time. Would be a surprise.   
11. Rebel’s Romance: Godolphin homebred is four for five this year with Group I wins in Dubai, Hong Kong, and Germany. Legit favorite who is nine for twelve at today’s distance and Wiliam Buick stays in the irons for the Appleby barn. If the 5/2 ML holds up that would be an overlay. The Pick.
12. Gold Phoenix: Has won four times over this course but has not scored in two tries at today’s distance. Stalk and pounce type will need to improve to compete here.  Was an OK fourth in this race last year. Needs to show more.
13. There Goes Havard: Ran well behind Cabo Spirit last out but that performance is well short of what is needed. Johnny V. might have him forward against this group. Needs his best.

Picks 11-4-2-5 

Race 8 – The Breeders’ Cup Classic – Grade I 

One Mile and One Quarter On the Dirt, For Three Year Olds and Upward 

1. Forever Young: Has lost only once in seven starts and that in the Derby where he was probably best as he rallied wide on the turn but was bumped repeatedly by Sierra Leone in the final eighth to lose by a head (99 Beyer).  Came back to win the Japan Dirt Classic last month in a fairly easy performance as he sat chilly just off the pace and kicked on when asked to win comfortably.  Has shown he can handle American dirt tracks. Using.
2. Highland Falls: Got a great ride by Flavian Prat in the Jockey Club Gold Cup as he pressed Authur’s Ride the entire way and kicked away in the lane (104 Beyer). That was his best performance of the year, Curlin colt should love going the mile and a quarter. Needs to reproduce that effort Saez takes over the reins.
3. City Of Troy: Aiden O’Brien enters this son of Justify in the Classic after winning six of his seven career starts. Can his running style translate to dirt in North America. He’s a serious talent winning Group 1s in both of his last two starts on the turf. Trainer Stat: Aiden O’Brien is 0 for 17 in the Classic. But of course, he typically has not had runners out of quality dirt sires. Underlay – looking elsewhere.
4. Mixto: Earned his entry by winning the Pacific Classic with a 100 Beyer at a nice price of 22-1. That was his first win of the year and both career wins are at Del Mar. Passing.
5. Senor Buscado: Won the Saudi Cup earlier this year for a big payday. But has hasn’t shown much in his two starts since coming back to the  including a distant fifth last out.  Short stretch at Del Mar also works against him. Not today.

6. Derma Sotogake: Ran a strong second in last year’s Classic (105 Beyer) behind White Abarrio but has been off form this year with below grade performances in all three starts. We know he handles North American racing conditions. Hard to trust but he is talented and if he has been pointed to this race all along then he is dangerous at a price. Blinkers go ON. Underneath.
7. Ushba Tesoro: Had a great 2023 with four wins from five starts but that hasn’t quite carried over to 2024 where he is winless in three starts but has finished second in all three efforts. Was a decent fifth in this race last year (102 Beyer). A step below the best .
8. Pyrennes: Hasn’t been out of the exacta in five starts this year with his best win coming in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special (97 Beyer).  He was decent first off the layoff in the Joe Hirsch behind Highland Falls but he will need to move forward to compete against this group. Passing.
9. Fierceness: Has been in good form with wins in both the Jim Dandy (103 Beyer) and Travers (111 Beyer). In both cases he got his preferred outside pace pressing trip. And that appears to be the key with this one – he’s super talented but has had issues if he faces adversity. There is speed to his outside he will have to contend with. Using.
10. Tapit Trice: Won the Woodward over a sloppy track by laying off the pace and running down Skippylongstocking in the final sixteenth (98  Beyer).  Won off a long layoff in the Monmouth Cup back in July where he was dominate late (101 Beyer). Not fast enough. 
11. Sierra Leone: He’s been a fun horse to route for – but not so much fun to bet on. He has repeatedly failed to close the deal while hitting the board in all eight career starts. He lugs in and doesn’t appear to know how to finish off a race. Also, the short stretch at Del Mar will work against his running style. Maybe a piece of it.
12. Arthur’s Ride: Last out he had to work to get to the lead in the Jockey Club Gold Cup as he was hounded by Highland Falls the entire and gave way in the final sixteenth. In the Whitney he threw down the gauntlet and won the Whitney with a 110 Beyer. That followed a 111 Beyer in an optional claimer. Appears to be the fastest horse in the race on a speed favoring surface – especially in longer route races. Mott barn has been cold, but the 15-1 ML is juicy. The Pick.
13. Newgate: After a klunker in Dubai in March Baffert put this one on the shelf until a head bobbing third in the California Crown at Santa Antia.  Blinkers go ON. Look for this one to show speed with Frankie Dettori back in the saddle.  Hard to see.
14. Next: This wonderful gelding is a monster going marathon distances where he gallops his rivals into submission. He has won seven races in a row going back a year and half but he has generally faced inferior foes and he now cuts back to a mile and a quarter. He will get a quicker pace than he has faced and the field has the best dirt horses in the world. He’s super cool – just don’t see how he keeps up with this group. Passing.
15. Rattle N Roll: Also Eligible for McPeek went off form later in the 2023 season after winning three Grade 3s as a four year old. Came back from a year layoff in the Lukas Classic and was a solid third (93 Beyer). Will need a big improvement second off the bench. Passing.

Picks 12-9-6-1