Happy Florida Derby Day! 

The Florida Derby card does not disappoint with five very playable graded stakes races along with five ungraded stakes that features the return of White Abarrio in the Ghostzapper.  The Florida Derby has an interesting field with the two ML favorites on the far outside in posts 9 and 10 which historically have tough to win from – those posts are 3/54 going nine furlongs over the past 10 years. The run up in nine furlong races has been recently increased from 70 feet to 123 feet (an increase of 54 feet) so there is some more space to gain position, but it’s still pretty tough. 

Trivia Question: Who was the last Florida Derby winner to win the Kentucky Derby? 

Race 9 – The Gulfstream Park Oaks – Grade II 

One Mile and a Sixteenth on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies 

1. Paradise City: Runs here off a win in N1X company and she showed a nice improvement routing (78 Beyer) and with Lasix – which comes OFF today. She should save ground and sit in the second flight. Could pick up a piece.
2. Early On: Last two races have been better as she stretched out to two turns. Comes back in two weeks after a game second in the Virginia Oaks (69 Beyer) where she come from off the pace but couldn’t run down the winner on a speed favoring surface. Saffie Joseph hits the board a strong 51% with horse coming back between 1 and 2 weeks and wins at 18%. Exotics.
3. The Queens MG: Was impressive in the Davona Dale last out where she pressed the pace and outbattled La Cara (80 Beyer). That was her first win since last summer in the Adirondack and confirms that longer will suit. Irad stays aboard. Contender.
4. Five G: In the Honeybee this New York bred ran a strong second as she cleared the field from post thirteen and almost took them the whole way (84 Beyer). She was game and almost came back on the winner. Two back she drew off in the Cash Run over this track (86 Beyer). Should be near the pace. Will get a jockey change to replace the injured Tyler Gaffalione. The Pick.
5. Whatintheliteral: Surprise winner of the Astoria last summer hasn’t shown much since. She runs here off a four plus month layoff after being eased in the Nashua against the colts where she showed brief speed but was done after a half mile. Does she want two turns? Passing.
6. Cassiar: Won a three way photo in her first outing sprinting at Tampa earning a nice 81 Beyer. $400k rangy City of Light colt looks like more distance would suit her. Dylan Davis takes over in the saddle. Faces winners for the first time. Dangerous.
7. Anna’s Promise: Performances significantly improved in her last two efforts after switching barns and addition of Lasix – which comes OFF today. Prefers to be up on the pace so should be sent from this outside post. Early speed.

Picks 4-6-3-1 

Race 14 – The Florida Derby – Grade I 

One Mile and One Furlong on the Dirt for Three Year Olds 

1. Neoequos: Outran his odds in the Fountian of Youth finishing a good third after leading most of the way (91 Beyer). Should be sent again from this inside post.  Does he want to go longer? Gunna be tough with the other speed in here. Might be a Pat Day Mile type. Small chance for a minor award.
2. Cool Intentions: Didn’t show in the Mucho Macho Man (65 Beyer) and now he faces a tough field. Overmatched.
3. Smoken Boy: Takes a big shot here in a Grade I off a no show performance in N1X company to earn a Beyer top of 68 with Lasix which comes OFF. Looking elsewhere.
4. Disruptor: Gun Runner offspring sold for $1.1 million and looked the part in his second career start where he blew the field away going seven panels (91 Beyer). Repole/Pletcher/Irad. Should sit in behind the speed and get first shot the leaders. Lasix comes OFF. Live runner.
5. Indecisiveness: Showed improvement in his last two efforts with Lasix which comes OFF today. A 79 Beyer top last out in N1X company where he was third. Hard to see it. 
6. Jimmy’s Dailys: Moves to stakes company off a maiden win and a second place in N1X company (84 Beyer). But both of those improved performances came with Lasix that now comes OFF. Prefers to attend the pace. Irad moves to Disruptor. Demand a price.
7. Enterdadragon: Has been running on the grass including a second last time in the Colonel Liam Stakes (76 Beyer). Sired by Outwork who won the Wood Memorial. Dylan Davis stays aboard. Late runner could get a slice at a price. Exotics.
8. Madaket Road: Baffert trainee runs here after a good performance in the Rebel Stakes where he set a quick pace but he couldn’t off the winner. Blinkers come OFF. Per Ed Derosa, Baffert is 0/8 over the past 18 years with three year old starters at Gulfstream. Mike Smith takes over for th injured Tyler Gaffalione. Use defensively in horizontal plays.
9. Tappan Street: Cox trainee won at first asking over this track going seven panels (84 Beyer) with a stalk and pounce trip. Moved to two turns in the Holy Bull and got the lead but Burnham Square ran him down (87 Beyer). Will benefit from the expected quick pace and is eligible for improvement in his third career start. The Pick.
10. Sovereignty: Came rolling late in the Fountain of Youth to get the win (95 Beyer) for Bill Mott. That was his first start of the year. More ground should suit and there is enough pace in here that it should set up for him again. Dylan Davis picks up the mount for the injured Alvarado. Win candidate. 

Picks 9-10-4-7 

Trivia Answer: Always Dreaming in 2017 was the last Florida Derby winner to follow that up with a win in  the Kentucky Derby.