Applebee: Closer look Frizette/Champagne BAQ Sat 10.5.24
Happy Champagne Day!
There are two Breeder’s Cup “win and you’re in” juvenile races at the Big A: the Champagne for the colts and the Frizette for the fillies. These Grade 1s also award points to the 2025 Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks respectively. This very nice card is rounded out by two Grade IIIs: the Belmont Turf Sprint and the Jockey Club Derby Invitational.
The four graded stakes comprise the first four legs of a mandatory payout Pick 5. I give two ways to play a caveman Pick 5 ticket one where I single the strong favorites in two legs and another that uses alternatives in each race.
Trivia Question: What is the namesake of the Champagne Stakes?
Race 7 The Frizette – Grade 1
One Mile On The Dirt for Two Year Old Fillies
- Snowyte: Ran well in her debut as she dueled up front but was run down late after getting to the lead (74 Beyer). Debuting at seven furlongs is tough and she was up on a quick pace. Bullet work coming out of that debut. Blinkers go ON. She should be sent from this inside post. Player.
- The Queens M G: Won the Schuylerville at 44-1 (73 Beyer) after a troubled trip in the Astoria. Followed up that Schuylerville effort with a win in the Adirondack where she drew off by nine lengths. Tried the threepeat in the Spinaway in the mud but she was up on to a strong pace and got cooked – off going may have impacted her. Look for her to sit in behind the speed and save ground on the rail. Eligible for a rebound. The Pick.
- 3. Pondering: Stalked the hot pace in the Spinaway but couldn’t make any headway and faded to seventh. Picks up Prat in the irons. Not convinced.
- Whatintheliteral: Longshot winner of the Astoria has not reproduced that effort in three races since that win. Shipped down to Gulfstream to run in the ungraded Hallandale Beach and was no match for the odds on winner while finishing a distance second. She posted a 54 Beyer for that effort and that’s of concern. The Astoria is looking like an outlier. Passing.
- Scottish Lassie: Ran decently in her debut (66 Beyer) but finished behind Snowyte who she faces again today. She tired in the lane in her first effort and now needs to get an additional furlong and faces winners. Looking elsewhere.
- Paradise City: Saffie Joseph ships this one in from his South Florida base as she won on debut with a nice stalk and pounce move (73 Beyer). Franco picks up the mount. Could contend with an improvement. Underneath in exotics.
- Another Cleeshay: Was way the best in her career debut as she broke awkwardly but got to the lead quickly and then never looked back as she was wrapped up for the final sixteenth for the Contessa barn (69 Beyer). Maybe.
- 8. Senza Parole: Buried the field in her debut while sprinting at the Spa (94 Beyer). Nice tightener last week over the Oklahoma training track. Looks ready to go. Gun Runner filly should not be distance limited. She’ll be an odds on favorite for a reason but she faces a deep field here and if she doesn’t fire there are others who will.
- Social Fortress: Broker her maiden at first asking in an off the turf affair and then came back and was 2/5 in the one mile Sorority Stakes at Monmouth and ran like a 2/5 shot should (64 Beyer). Speed figs are lite but she is the only filly in the field to win at a mile. Lean against.
10: Icona Mama: Ran well in the Grade 3 Pocahontas going the flat mile at Churchill three weeks ago (69 Beyer) but was outdueled in the lane. Showed stamina but will need to improve. Don’t think so.
Picks 2-8-1-6
Race 8 The Champagne – Grade 1
One Mile On The Dirt for Two Year Olds
- J J Zo Zo: Was game two back breaking his maiden against Jersey state breds as he battled back from the rail. Moved to open company in the overnight Smoke Glacken Stakes where he ran like a 4/5 shot (77 Beyer). Gets the acid test today against some tough ones. Exotics.
- 2. Tip Top Thomas: Pletcher trainee was gutsy in winning at first asking where he pressed the pace and was best in the lane (85 Beyer) to win by a head. Looks like that was a decent field as second and fourth placed runners came back to post 81 and 89 Beyers in their next efforts. Two quick works leading into this. Irad stays here. Breeding appears to point to sprinting – but if Pletcher believes, so do I. The Pick.
- Lethal Speed: Was wide as he broke his maiden at Gulfstream (56 Beyer) last month. You’ll get a big price.
- 4. Mo Plex: Undefeated in three career starts for Jeremiah Englehart including two stakes wins. Wired the field in the Sanford on opening weekend of the Spa meet (73 Beyer) and then came back in the state bred Funny Cide Stakes where he overcame a tough wide trip to win by a nose (71 Beyer). Stretches out to the flat mile today. Possible piece.
- Uncaged: Pletcher trainee won on debut over a muddy track at the Spa where he overcame bit of a tough trip (84 Beyer). Rosario is in the irons as Irad moves to Tip Top Thomas. Comes back fresh off a two month break. Dangerous.
- Vekoma Rides: Impressive winner at first asking for John Kimmel where he broke from the outside post and was patiently ridden by Carmouche as he slowly picked off each horse and drew away (77 Beyer). This first crop of Vekoma has been great but they haven’t stretched out yet but sire certainly could get a route of ground. Player.
- 7. Smoken Wicked: Has ran well in multiple stakes events but hasn’t yet gotten top prize in those races. Tried to wire the field in the Hopeful and looked like he might until the final sixteenth (81 Beyer). In the Saratoga Special he pressed the pace and ran well to stay up for third as he was bounced around between horses in the lane. Dylan Davis takes the mount and he is the fifth jockey in as many races for this Dallas Stewart trainee. They need to figure out a running style – is he need the lead type, is he a pace presser, is he a stalker? He’s tried all three. Breeding suggests sprinting.
- Colonel Bob: Drew off at Parx in his debut for Butch Reid going seven furlongs (59 Beyer). Moves to stakes company today and takes on some tough ones. Has been working well at Parx in advance of this. Would need to improve to contend. Water is too deep.
- 9. Executive Order: Strong first time winner for Phil Serpe going six and a half at the Spa (78 Beyer). He was up on the pace battling the leader and once he got his leads sorted out at the eighth pole he was long gone. That was in a restricted maiden race – but he was impressive and looked like he had more to give. Possible at a price.
- 10. Chancer McPatrick: Was excellent in the Hopeful (88 Beyer) where he overcame a tough break where Prat lost one of his irons and got rolling late to run down the leaders. Showed a lot of maturity to get that win. Faces some tough ones here and his issues at the start could cause an issue with this big field. Will be running late. Logical favorite.
Picks 2-10-6-5
Middle Pick 5
Option 1 Use Alternatives R5: 3,5,6,7, R6: 5,8,9, R7: 2,8 R8: 2,6,10 R9: 3,4 Ticket Cost $72
Option 2 Single the Heavy Favorites R5: All R6: 5,8,9 R7: 8 R8: 10 R9: 3,4 Ticket Cost $21
Trivia Answer: The Champagne Stakes is named for the British version of the Champagne Stakes which was first run in 1823 at Doncaster Racecourse in Doncaster, England.