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Applebee: Diana and Kelso/ SAR Sat 7.13.24
Happy Diana Day!
Chad Brown has won the Diana seven of the past eight years and with five entered in today’s edition he looks to continue his dominance in this Grade I, but his quintet faces some tough ones.
Many of the turf stakes at this meet will feature Chad Brown vs. Charlie Appleby showdowns. Today we get the first taste of that matchup in the Kelso Stakes where Chad has Carl Spackler and Appleby has Mysterious Night. So far this year in North American Appleby trainees are winning at a 30% clip and 74% have hit the board. Godolphin have made a bigger commitment to American racing this year with 18 horses stabled in Saratoga for the duration of the Summer.
Trivia Question: Kelso won the Horse of the Year a record five times (1960-1964). Who was the last horse to win Horse of the Year honors multiple times?
Race 2 – The Kelso Stakes – Grade III
One Mile on the Inner Turf for Four Years Olds and Upward
- Call Me Harry: Supplemented into the field by Dutrow and Michael Dubb for this eight year old gelding’s first graded stakes start. You have to go back almost two years for his most recent win on the turf, but it was over this course where he is 8-3-2-0. So he likes the course, no doubt there. Looks to be on the pace. While he has been running in optional claimers his Beyers aren’t too far off it, but he is likely to be under pressure all the way. Maybe a piece.
- Mysterious Night: Ran well in the Poker but was bottled up behind horses and finished third (95 Beyer). If Mysterious Night could have gotten loose earlier I think he’s the winner that day. Prat takes over for William Buick who didn’t ship in for this one. Look for a stalk and pounce effort after saving ground. Race flow suits. The Pick.
- Northern Invader: Cherie DeVaux ships this one in from Kentucky where he most recently ran in the Arlington at Churchill setting the pace setter but gave way in the stretch finishing fourth (89 Beyer). The top two from that race then came back to finish 1,2 in the Wise Dan. Will need things his way, but I don’t see that happening in a race with other pace. Small slice.
- Talk of the Nation: No excuse in the Poker where he had clear run at winner Ice Chocolate (94 Beyer). Two back in the Opening Verse he set the pace but was narrowly defeated by Carl Spackler who outdueled him (98 Beyer). Another one who will near the pace. Has hit the board in all eight career starts on the turf. Piece of the pie.
- Carl Spackler: Stalker type got somehow caught wide in the Poker breaking from the three hole and while he made a bit of a run – he was no threat. Two back he ran down Talk of the Nation (98 Beyer) in the Opening Verse. Should behind the speed. Two for two over the Saratoga inner turf course. Win contender.
- Repo Rocks (MTO): Nine time winner Repo Rocks will be a threat if this race is run over the main course from the Wilson Chute. There isn’t much other dirt form in the field and although his two races this year have been subpar, he’s probably best over the main track.
Picks 2-5-4-3 Dirt 6-1-3
Race 10 – The Diana Stakes – Grade I
One Mile and One Furlong on the Mellon Turf for Fillies & Mares Four Years Old and Up
- Moira: Woodbine based mare ships in for Kevin Attard for her first start of the year. Last we saw her she ran third in the Breeder’s Cup Filly and Mare Turf (103 Beyer) where she loomed boldly at the eighth pole but was out finished. She’ll take back and come running late. At her best she is right there. She has run well before first off long layoffs. Trainer Stat: Attard has a strong 31% win rate in layoffs of over 250 days. Using.
- Coppice: First of five Chad runners was an OK sixth in the Just A Game last month where he was one paced in the lane and was beaten by five of today’s rivals. Chili Flag has bested him in both of his U.S. races. Looking elsewhere.
- Mission of Joy: Consistent performer for Graham Motion was an up close third in the Just A Game (97 Beyer) – that was her best performance since the QEII Cup last Fall. Stalker type doesn’t thrown in clunkers but hasn’t won in over a year since the 2023 Regret Stakes. Needs to show she handle older mares. Passing.
- Didia: Was dominate in the New York Stakes where she saved ground in the second flight and flew by the leaders when asked in the stretch (100 Beyer). Started the year winning the Pegasus Filly and Mare Turf with a gritty neck win. The distance suits and she should be able to sit a trip. She’s an impressive 11 for 15 on the turf and keeps getting better. The Pick.
- Gina Romantica: The second of the Chad quintet was in decent position in the Just a Game but didn’t show much finishing fifth after a stalking two wide trip (94 Beyer). Looks like she is more of a miler, but she did win at today’s distance in 2022. Doesn’t quite look like the same mare who was only beaten by a length in the Breeders’ Cup Mile against the colts. Passing.
- Whitebeam: Defending champion of this race for Chad Brown has not won since last year’s Diana where she fired her only triple digit. Pace presser type should up on the lead along with Evvie Jets. She’s been close in both efforts this year but was beaten by Chili Flag and Neecie Marie in the Just a Game and Beaugay, respectively. Will need her best. Lean against.
- Fluffy Socks: The fourth Chad runner demolished a five horse field in the Gallorette last out at Pimlico as the 3/5 favorite. That was her best performance in almost two years. Irad moves to Chili Flag and Rosario picks up the mount here. Likes some cut in the ground and has run very well on off going. Late runner. Wait and see.
- Neecie Marie: Strong second place finish in the New York (97 Beyer) where she came from well off of it with a good inside trip. That followed a spectacular win in the Beaugay Stakes where she swept by the field in the lane (93 Beyer) going from last to first in the final furlong making up twelve lengths on the leaders who had set stout fractions. Gets a piece.
- Evvie Jets: Set the pace in the Just a Game but she was under pressure the whole way and couldn’t hold off pace presser Whitebeam or the closers (96 Beyer). Goes an additional furlong today so she’ll need to ration out her speed against some serious mares. She’ll be up against it. You’ll get a price.
- 10. Chili Flag: The last of the five “Chads” is in the best form of his group. Winner of three straight including the Just a Game where she just got clear late (98 Beyer). Versatile runner who can lay off the pace if it heats up or can stay closer if it’s a more moderate up front. Irad stays here. She has a nice late kick but does she want nine furlongs?
- Venti Valentine (MTO): She’s won three times wet dirt tracks and has hit the board nine of ten on the off going. She’ll be in the mix but Gia Romantica would be my pick if this is washed off. She’s two for two on off tracks and posted an 80 Beyer in the 2022 Wilton.
Picks 4-10-1-8 Dirt 5-11-1
Trivia Answer: California Chrome won horse of the year in 2014 and again in 2016.