Happy Whitney Day! 

This is a great card with five stakes headlined by the Whitney Stakes. The Whitney appears to run through National Treasure who we last saw romping the Met Mile.  The Saratoga Derby is an evenly matched race where just about any of them could pull it off.   

In the Troy Stakes, Cogburn comes back after setting a North American record at 5 ½ furlongs on the turf in the Jaipur Stakes tripping the timer in 59.80. In the Test Stakes we have a potential budding star in the form of Ways and Means who looked the part last out when she posted a 104 Beyer fig. 

Trivia Question: Which two Hall of Fame jockeys are tied with the most wins in the Whitney? 

Race 7 – The Saratoga Derby – Grade I 

One mile and Three Sixteenths on the Mellon Turf, For Three Year Olds 

1. Izzy d’Oro: Ships in from Colonial where he has been training since his fourth place finish in the Tale of the Cat Stakes at Monmouth (74 Beyer). Now he moves to a Grade I, draws inside again and will need to get more distance. Up against it.
2. Cugino: Shug has indicated this one will scratch due to a fever. Wired the field in the Audubon at Churchill (91 Beyer) last out. Assuming he is forward again today, he will have company and that may compromise his chances. Passing.
3. Legend Of Time: Has been training locally for Appleby since an up close third in the Belmont Derby (87 Beyer). That day has was on the rail and couldn’t get clear. Won the Pennine Ridge (84 Beyer) with a similar trip but he got out that day and edged away.  Should sit a trip behind the two inside horses who should show speed. William Buick comes over from England for the ride. The Pick.
4. Diego Velazquez: Aiden O’Brien ships this one across the pond off a dominate win in the Group 3 Meld Stakes at Leopardstown two weeks ago. That was a big step forward as he drew off to win by seven lengths. Looks like he wants firm going. Ryan Moore comes over for the mount. That’s a pretty quick turnaround including a cross Atlantic trip. Aiden O’Brien is 1/21 in North America with starters who come back in less than three weeks. Win candidate.
5. Deterministic: Won the Gotham and then flopped in the Wood and the Peter Pan. Off of those two poor performances Clement moved this Liam’s Map colt to the turf in the Manila and he was very good finishing a close second (86 Beyer) after having a bit of an issue changing leads.  His strong late move in the Manila suggests the extra ground should suit him. Underneath.
6. Carson’s Run: Won the Tale of the Cat at Monmouth (82 Beyer) last out with a nice performance where he stalked the pace set by Izzy d’Oro. This late runner is dangerous with a lot of pace signed up today – he’ll be coming late. Minor award.
7. Royal Majesty: Ran well in both the Pennine Ridge and Belmont Derby for Bill Mott but finished behind Legend of Time and White Palomino. Stalker type has shown he can gain position but is one paced when the running gets going. Maybe a slice…maybe.
8. White Palomino: Has not missed the board in four career starts. Last out in the Belmont Derby and led the entire way and was caught in the final furlong but dueled to the wire only losing by a head. Two back in the Pennine Ridge it was a similar trip with Legend of Time just getting there. He faces a lot of pace and his outside draw which may force his hand. Not today.

Picks 3-4-6-5 

Race 11 – The Whitney Stakes – Grade I 

One Mile and One Furlong On the Dirt, For Four Year Olds and Upward  

1. Post Time: Stretches out to nine furlongs after two good performances going a mile in the Westchester (95 Beyer) and Met Mile (92 Beyer).  Has never finished out of the money but faces a tough field and his Beyers have declined as he has stretched out. Now he needs to get another furlong. Passing.
2. Disarm: Was a serious contender in stakes races last year as a three year old but his two starts this year have been subpar. In the Stephen Foster he was slow out of the break but found a nice spot on the rail and made a decent middle move only to fade in the lane. Bar shoe comes off – maybe that’s a sign of improvement. Looking elsewhere. 
3. National Treasure: Dominated the Met Mile as he got to the front and never looked back (102 Beyer). He’s the one to beat today as he might run this field off their feet even with some other speed signed on. But he does need to go longer and should be under pressure the whole way. It’s called the Graveyard of Champions for a reason. Use underneath.
4. Warrior Johny: Has shown improvement during his four year old campaign culminating in a win in an Optional Claimer last month going nine furlongs over this track (98 Beyer) where he got an inside position and rode the rail all the way. Lasix comes OFF. Possible piece.
5. First Mission: Tried to wire the Stephen F. Foster field, was corralled at the quarter pole, but ran on to finish fourth (96 Beyer). Look for him to be close to the pace again today sitting just off National Treasure – which appears to be his preferred running style. Running with that target should help and Brad Cox wins at 31% clip over the past three years at the Spa in dirt route stakes races. He’s right there with a small rebound. The Pick.
6. Il Miracolo: Was no match for First Mission in the Alysheba (99 Beyer) but was excellent two back in the Ghostzapper at Gulfstream where he was up on the pace and battled gamely. No wins from seven career starts at nine furlongs. Trainer Antonio Sano has no wins from fourteen starters in stakes races at Saratoga. Don’t see it.
7. Crupi: Pletcher shipped him to Dubai in March where he had a clunker in the Dubai World Cup.  But has had two good starts since with a win in the Suburban and a distant second in the Brooklyn behind superstar Next (98 Beyer).  Cuts back to nine furlongs and Irad stays aboard. Dangerous in a field with a fair amount of pace – he’ll be coming late. Exotics.
8. Tumbarumba: Has hit the exacta in all four starts this year with narrow losses in the Ghostzapper and in the Gulfstream Park Mile along with a win in the Ft. Hooper going the flat mile (97 Beyer). Has consistently run in the mid-90 Beyers but that won’t get the job done today and he may prefer less ground. Passing.
9. Bright Future: Won the Salvatore Mile in his first start since the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Loves this track and is two for two including a win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He is stretching back out to his preferred longer distance.  Pletcher has a 26% win rate with horses coming second of the layoff beyond 210 days. Will sit well off a likely hot pace. Underneath. 
10. Skippylongstocking: Had a career performance two back in the Oaklawn Handicap where he pressed the leader and drew off (107 Beyer). But wasn’t able to repeat that in the Foster where he sat just off the leader but couldn’t manage the closers while running on for third (97 Beyer). Tough post given all the other speed. Lean against.
11. Arthur’s Ride: Bill Mott moves this one to Grade 1 company off a monster win over this track against N1X company (111 Beyer). Jose Ortiz will have to send from his post and try to gain position early. If he can do that then he could be competitive. But his pace figs do not stack up against others in here which will make it pretty tough from this post. Lasix comes OFF. Too much to do today.
12. Charge It: Draws the tough outside post and he’ll be up against it and may get spun wide on the first turn.  His two starts this year are well below what is needed to contend here. Hasn’t won in a year where he wired the field in the Suburban and that won’t happen here. Not today.

Picks 5-3-7-9 

All Stakes Pick 5: R7:3,4 R8:2,4 R9:2,5,9, R10:1,6,11 R11:3,5,7 Ticket Cost $54 

Trivia Answer: Pat Day and Jerry Bailey are tied with the most Whitney wins – five. Irad Ortiz and the timeless John Velazquez lead active riders with four wins each.