Author Archives: Brian Nadeau

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/01/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 7      Race overview:  A stakes-caliber AOC sprinting on the main, with several who start with winning credentials.       Pace:  There’s no confirmed front runners enters, so expect a bunched group, which gives those with tactical speed a big edge.      Trends:  The main track played a bit more on the fair side last week, as winners were coming from everywhere, though tactical speed (at the very least) is always preferred.        Best Play:  #2 BAGBOSS (3-1): Lightly-raced runner had a bit of a…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/29/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 9      Race overview:  A deep and competitive MSW routing on the turf.       Pace:  It’s a full field, so things should be honest up front, though there doesn’t appear to be any burners in here either.      Trends:  The turf has been used quite sparingly, so it’s tough to see any concrete trends.       Best Play:  #9 SRI LANKA (4-1) (turf only): Munnings filly returns fresh for a Walsh barn that is white-hot, and all she needs is clear sailing after a nightmare…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/28/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 2      Race overview:  A deep and competitive 50k N2L routing on the main track.       Pace:  It looks very honest on paper, as there are a few with route speed, along with a stretchout sprinter (#6 Dog Red).      Trends:  With the exception of Saturday’s drying out track (which typically always play to off-the-pace types), the main track was playing to speed throughout the week.       Best Play:  #5 CONSTITUTIONAL LAW (5-2): Class dropper has been facing better, has a stalking gear that…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/27/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 3      Race overview:  A weak restricted MSW (50k or less/or RNA) going 5Fs on the main.       Pace:  There’s a slew of first-time starters here, so expect things to be quick up front.      Trends:  With the exception of Saturday’s drying out track (which typically always play to off-the-pace types), the main track was playing to speed throughout the week.       Best Play:  #3 LIAM’S MESSAGE (3-1): Experienced runner improved a lot in her second start, and had a trip, and there’s just…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/12/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 4      Race overview:  A compact 50k claimer for older sprinting 6Fs on the main.       Pace:  There’s not much here, which means from a perfect outside attack post, #6 DIVINE LEADER (5-2) should be primed the entire way.      Trends:  The main track had a speed/inside feel to it early on Derby Day but it evened out late for sure. And as a whole, it’s been fair throughout the meet, though speed and being forward is always preferred.        Best Play:  #6 DIVINE…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/11/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 3      Race overview:  A predictably deep and competitive 50k starter-allowance for f/m going 6 ½ furlongs on the main.       Pace:  There’s not much here, as #3 Tell Me When (7-2) should be controlling, with #5 CHARLEE MAE (8-1) closest, while several other major contenders have no speed at all.      Trends:  The main track had a speed/inside feel to it early on Derby Day but it evened out late for sure. And as a whole, it’s been fair throughout the meet, though…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/6/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 7      Race overview:  A deep and competitive renewal of the G2 Turf Sprint, with countless win possibilities, though none have the upside and potential move forward like #4 BIG INVASION (7-2).       Pace:  It’s a G2 turf sprint so they’ll be flying early, and there are several that want to be a part of it, so wiring seems a bit implausible.       Trends:  They just haven’t run enough races over the new turf to get a true feel, though it undoubtedly should be a…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/5/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 10      Race overview:  As good a renewal of the G2 Edgewood for 3yo fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the turf as you’ll ever see, as there are upwards of 10 potential winners in the field-of-11, which means taking a stand gives you a huge leg up on the rest of the betting public.       Pace:  There’s not much here, so they’ll be bunched early and sprint off the far turn, where acceleration and racing luck will both come into play.      Trends:  They…