Author Archives: Brian Nadeau

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/2/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 4      Race overview:  A solid 50k MCL for sprinters, with several in with a chance, though it’s #3 EASY AS A.B.C. (9-5) who looks primed on the MSW drop.       Pace:  There’s very little on paper, for a main track sprint, so being able to lay close early is a big plus here.      Trends:  You want to be close on the dirt, as it’s difficult to make up a lot of ground if you’re not within striking distance entering the far turn.   …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/1/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 4      Race overview:  A solid 16k MCL routing on the Tapeta, though it’s #3 LEOPARDI (9-5) that seems to hold all the aces.       Pace:  There’s not much on paper, so expect a bunched field early, which should turn into a sprint off the far turn.      Trends:  Tapeta routes consistently play to stalker/closers, with well over 70% of the races being won from off the pace, as speed rarely holds up front, no matter how slow they go.       Best Play:  #3…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/27/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 5      Race overview:  A full field of 30k N2L sprinters, with several who are in with winning chances, though #8 SONO GRATO (8-1) offers plenty of value off a troubled trip.       Pace:  It should be hot and contested, as several here want to motor early, which means a stalking gear seems imperative.      Trends:  Winners are continuing to come from everywhere, with no noticeable biases, both in terms of path and running style.       Best Play:  #8 SONO GRATO (8-1): Stalker will…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/25/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 8      Race overview:  A pretty modest 50k claimer for the level, with several who enter with suspect form, which is not a worry for #2 HONEY RUN (5-2).       Pace:  There looks to be more than enough here, as several want to be involved early, which means no one should be able to clear.      Trends:  Winners are continuing to come from everywhere, with no noticeable biases, both in terms of path and running style.       Best Play:  #2 HONEY RUN (5-2): Dominant…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/24/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 11      Race overview:  A solid field for the G3 Cardinal going 1 1/8 miles on the turf, with G1 winner #5 Dalika (2-1) leading the way over several graded stakes quality runners.       Pace:  It looks hot and contested between the two favorites, as both #5 Dalika (2-1) and #6 Adventuring (9-5) want to be involved early and often, and could tangle, being drawn next to each other.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #7 SUNNY ONE (8-1) (turf only): Stalker/closer has run…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/23/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 4      Race overview:  A full field of 30k MCLers, with several different ways to go.       Pace:  It should be honest, as there are 12 entered, and several who are stretching out as well.      Trends:  Winners are continuing to come from everywhere, with no noticeable biases, both in terms of path and running style.       Best Play:  #11 GUIDED ARROW (5-1): Lightly raced runner moved way up in his first dirt start last time, with a ton of trouble to boot, so…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/20/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 2      Race overview:  A seemingly average 2yo MSW for restricted sale horses, which makes stiff open MSW dropper #8 MIDSUMMER SOIREE (5-2) look mighty tough.       Pace:  It should be honest, as the pick will be involved throughout, and there are some expected fast firsters entered too.      Trends:  The main track played on the fair side last week, as winners came from everywhere, though being down inside seemed preferred.       Best Play:  #8 MIDSUMMER SOIREE (5-2): Bargain 10k buy set the…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/19/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 1      Race overview:  A non-descript 15k MCL sprinting, with several who come in off duds, while #6 SUPE (5-1) woke way up on the dirt last time.       Pace:  It’s a full field sprinting on the main, so while it doesn’t look overly hot, it should be honest enough.      Trends:  The main track played on the fair side last week, as winners came from everywhere, though being down inside seemed preferred.       Best Play:  #6 SUPE (5-1): Lightly raced runner tried dirt…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/18/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 5      Race overview:  A weak 3up 20k claimer at 1 1/16 miles, with class-dropping #1 BALLINONABUDJET (5-2) seemingly holding all the aces.       Pace:  There’s very little entered on paper, so expect a bunched field throughout, with a sprint off the far turn.      Trends:  The main track played on the fair side last week, as winners came from everywhere, though being down inside seemed preferred.       Best Play:  #1 BALLINONABUDJET (5-2): Dropper has been facing tons better—while more than holding his own—drew…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/17/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 6      Race overview:  A decent 32k claimer sprinting on the main, with a few class risers in off good runs, and a few dropping off suspect ones.       Pace:  There’s not a ton here, which means #1 ASH FLAT (5-1) should be able to control from inside early, especially since he’s facing much easier this time.      Trends:  The main track played on the fair side last week, as winners came from everywhere, though being down inside seemed preferred.       Best Play:  #1…