Handicapping

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/30/25      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  11       Race overview  An extremely deep and competitive 16k handicap for 4up at 1 1/8 miles on Tapeta.       Pace  There’s plenty here, as more than a few want to be involved early and often, which suggests this will turn to the stalker/closers late, especially at this seldom used but demanding distance.      Trends  Stalkers have a better go of it routing on Tapeta, as it’s tough to last up front over what can be a demanding trip going two…

Happy Florida Derby Day!  The Florida Derby card does not disappoint with five very playable graded stakes races along with five ungraded stakes that features the return of White Abarrio in the Ghostzapper.  The Florida Derby has an interesting field with the two ML favorites on the far outside in posts 9 and 10 which historically have tough to win from – those posts are 3/54 going nine furlongs over the past 10 years. The run up in nine furlong races has been recently increased from 70 feet to 123 feet (an increase of 54 feet) so there is some more space to gain position, but it’s still…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/29/25      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  10       Race overview  A deep and competitive renewal of the Sanibel Island for3yofs at   7 ½ furlongs on the turf.       Pace  It looks like there’s plenty here, which suggest a staking gear will come in handy off the far turn.      Trends  Speed has been lethal on the turf, but with so much here (on paper), you have to think no one is lasting up front.      Best Play  #3 LOVE CERVERE (5-2) (turf only): Stalker was a huge…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/28/25      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  7       Race overview  A competitive 8k N3L for 4upfm at 1 1/16 miles on Tapeta.       Pace  There’s not much here, so expect a bunched group early that will sprint off the far turn.      Trends  Stalkers have a better go of it routing on Tapeta, as it’s tough to last up front over what can be a demanding trip going two turns.      Best Play  #4 LADY MONIQUE (5-2): Stalker was 3rd against better in her last start on…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/27/25      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  3       Race overview  A competitive 17.5k claimer for 3yos at 1 1/16 miles on Tapeta.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as there’s speed to the outside (#5), along with a few who want to be close early (#1 and #6).      Trends  Stalkers have a better go of it routing on Tapeta, as it’s tough to last up front over what can be a demanding trip going two turns.      Best Play  #4 IL ALCHEMYSTA (2-1): Stalker exits a…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/23/25      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  2       Race overview  A relatively modest, though deep and competitive MSW for 3yofs at 1 1/16 miles on turf.       Pace  It looks honest, as it’s a full field with several first-time starters, as well as more than a few who have shown some early foot.      Trends  Speed has been lethal on turf, seemingly no matter how fast they go early, so at the very least, you need to be close early on.      Best Play  #7 UNLIMITED SPENDING…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/22/25      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  2       Race overview  A deep and competitive 35k MCL for 3yos at 1M on the turf.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as more than a few have shown a penchant for running on or just off the early pace.      Trends  Speed has been lethal on turf, seemingly no matter how fast they go early, so at the very least, you need to be close early on.      Best Play  #5 DREAMBUILDER (5-2) (turf only): Class dropper was a…

Happy Louisiana Derby Day!  Today is the big day at the Fair Grounds where they have eight stake races headlined by The Louisiana Derby and Sierra Leone returns as a four year old in the New Orleans Classic.  Trivia Question: Who was the last winner of the Louisiana Derby to win the Kentucky Derby?  Race 11 – The Fair Grounds Oaks – Grade II  One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies   Girl Math: Improved performance with the addition of blinkers and the move to the poly track where she broke her maiden but failed to impress in her first stakes. Should come…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/21/25      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  9       Race overview  A deep and competitive 50k starter-allowance for 4upfm at 1-mile on the turf.       Pace  It looks like #3 SWOONATRA (7-2) is the speed of the speed, and should be able to shake loose early.      Trends  Speed has been lethal on turf, seemingly no matter how fast they go early, which again means you need to be close.      Best Play  #3 SWOONATRA (7-2) (turf only): Speedster has been facing better and now drops to the…