Handicapping

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/9/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  6       Race overview  A wildly deep and competitive 30k starter-allowance for 3up going 1 1 1/16 miles on the main.       Pace  It looks hot and contested, as there are more than a few who want to motor early, which suggests this one will tilt towards the off-the-pace runners.      Trends  The main track was fair and consistent throughout Derby Week, regardless of the surface condition, so you should not be deterred from playing anyone with a contrasting running style.     …

Happy Derby Day!    With the Baffert trainees ineligible to run, the Derby would appear to be a two horse race between Sierra Leone and Fierceness. However, in a twenty horse field plenty of things can go awry. The Turf Classic features a Euro vs. American match-up with a Charlie Appleby trainee taking on an uncoupled Chad Brown entry with a strong Shug runner.  Race 11 The Turf Classic – Grade I  One Mile and One Furlong on the Turf for Four Year Olds and Upward   Integration: In the Makers Mark Mile he couldn’t run down Master of the Seas as he was wide on the far turn…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/4/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  10       Race overview  A wildly deep and contentious renewal of the G1 Churchill Downs for 4up going 7Fs on the main track.       Pace  For a 7F G1 sprint there’s not a ton of it on paper, but there’s also a full field, so the pace should develop, though coming from the back and winning might be a big ask, and there are more than a few of those types here.      Trends  It was just a few days early in the…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/3/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  11       Race overview  A deep and contentious renewal of the G1 Kentucky Oaks for 3yo fillies going 1 1/8 miles on the main track.       Pace  It looks potentially hot and contested, and at tis demanding trip, with a long stretch, this will likely stretch the rubber band of several of these mighty thin, and play more towards a stalker with stamina.      Trends  It was just a few days early in the week, but the main track played fair, which is…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/2/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  5       Race overview  An extremely weak MSW for 3up going 1 1/16 miles on the turf.       Pace  There’s not much on paper, though it is a big field, but regardless, #4 ROCKY JOY (4-1) figures to be on or just off the early lead in his first two-turn start after dueling sprinting last time.      Trends  N/A        Best Play  #4 ROCKY JOY (4-1) (turf only): Son of Kitten’s Joy is bred to love the lawn and two turns, and…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/1/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  7       Race overview  A predictably competitive N1X for 3upfms going a tricky 7 ½ Fs on the main track.       Pace  It looks honest, though the sprint speed of comebacking #1 MIGHTY MADISON (7-2) says she’ll be able to clear off early.      Trends  N/A        Best Play  #1 MIGHTY MADISON (7-2): Speedster returns off a November layoff for Bauer, who has been quiet this year but has undoubtedly been gearing up for CD, and this filly looks poised for a…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/30/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  2       Race overview  A contentious 32k claimer for 4upfms going 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  There’s none here to keep #2 Jump Into the Fire (2-1) from making the front early and setting her own tempo.      Trends  N/A        Best Play  #2 JUMP INTO THE FIRE (2-1): Expected loose speed caught slop in her comeback at Laurel in a race that should have her set up perfectly for this, especially since she’s 6-2-3-0 over the CD…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/27/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  3       Race overview  A solid 30k starter-allowance for 3upfms going 6Fs on the main.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as there are more than a few who want to be involved early in some way.      Trends  N/A        Best Play  #2 LITTLE BLAZE (3-1): Tactical miss got to a fast main track last  time and blitzed the field in an effort that’s simply better than the rest of these can offer, so if the weather holds and it’s…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/26/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  3       Race overview  A modest N1X for 4upfms going 1-mile on the turf.       Pace  Ther’s not much here to prevent #3 New Rome (5-2) from making the lead and going from there, while enjoying a big tactical edge in the process.      Trends  There’s no trends to be had, as they don’t run enough races on the grass, but things been have been for several days now, which could tilt things towards the speed.        Best Play  #3 NEW ROME (5-2)…