Handicapping

Happy Belmont Day!  The term “historic” is overused, but today is a historic day. For the first time since 1967 the Belmont Stakes will be contested somewhere other than over “Big Sandy”. This is a dream card with nine Graded Stakes, including six Grade 1s. Those six Grade Is are the most on any card in North America outside of the Breeders’ Cup Classic day.   Sure, it would be nice if the Belmont could have been contested at a mile and a half, but there is no Triple Crown on the line so that doesn’t matter as much as it might. This is a great Belmont field that…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/8/24      Featured track  Saratoga       Race number  11       Race overview  A solid renewal of the G1 Manhattan for 4up, this year run at 1 3/16 miles on the Mell turf course.       Pace  There’s little doubt $4 Strong Quality (15-1) will be loose, with potentially #5 Program Trading (5-2) being closest, but regardless, this figures to turn into a sprint off the far turn, as the former is a definite longshot on many different handicapping levels.      Trends  N/A       Best Play  #9 MEASURED RIDE (7-2): One of two…

Happy New York Stakes Day!  It’s ladies day at the Spa with four filly and mare Graded Stakes on the card.  I’ll tackle the Acorn and the New York along with an All-Stakes Pick 4.   Much of the turf racing during this festival will come down to a battle between Chad Brown and Charlie Appleby. You need determine what to do with the Appleby runners as a group. Do you think they will fire or will the North American based turf trainers led by Chad Brown hold their ground? Appleby has already had a strong year in the U.S. with five wins in Graded Turf Stakes from sixteen…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/7/24      Featured track  Saratoga       Race number  2       Race overview  A very deep and competitive AOC for 3up going 1 ¼ miles on the main track.       Pace  It’s unlikely there will be much pace on going this far, which should temper things early, and turn this into a sprint off the far turn.      Trends  The simple obvious answer is N/A, as this is a stand-alone four-day meet, but the gut says the track will be tight and speedy, and will play to speed, but obviously monitor that as…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/6/24      Featured track  Saratoga       Race number  3       Race overview  A deep and competitive 3up NYB N1X going 7Fs on the main track.       Pace  There appears to be some zip here, and at this tricky 7F trip, things tend to get heated early, which means a stalking gear will play well.      Trends  The simple obvious answer is N/A, as this is a stand-alone four-day meet, but the gut says the track will be tight and speedy, and will play to speed, but obviously monitor that as the…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/5/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  3       Race overview  A modest 30k MCL for 3up going 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  There appears to be enough inside speed to set this up for a stalker, especially since it could catch up the ML favorite, #2 Air Force Cruising (5-2) in the process.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not.      Best…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/2/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  5       Race overview  A deep and competitive 30k N2L for 3up going 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  Things looks honest up front, though there are no real burners either, who want to set torrid splits, so this seems like a forward race that will be won close to the pace.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/1/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  4       Race overview  A weak but full field MSW for fms going 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  There’s very little here, especially with 12 of them lining up, so expect things to be tempered early, which means tactical speed is at a premium.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not.      Best Play  #3…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/31/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  3       Race overview  A deep and competitive 50k N2L for 3upfm at 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as there are more than a few who want to be close to the front early, though there aren’t any pure burners signed on either.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not.     …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/30/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  3       Race overview  A deep and competitive 32k claimer for 4up going 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  Pace makes the race and there’s plenty of it here, especially on the outside and from some key contenders too, so there’s a chance this falls apart in the lane.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not. …