Handicapping

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/27/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  3       Race overview  A seemingly weak restricted MSW for 2yo fillies going 5Fs on the main track.       Pace  It’s a full field sprinting, so things should be moving up front.      Trends  The main track seemed to play a bit forward last week, though nothing too out of the ordinary.      Best Play  #8 KISS CAM (3-1): Open MSW dropper also goes to Sweezey, who has been having a banner year, while routinely moving new horses up, and after…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/26/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  5       Race overview  A deep and competitive 10k MCL for 3up going 6 ½ furlongs on the main track.       Pace  For a full field in a dirt sprint, there doesn’t appear too much, at least on paper, so tactical speed seems a premium.      Trends  The main track seemed to play a bit forward last week, though nothing too out of the ordinary.      Best Play  #4 REMEMBER THE FEAR (5-1): MSW dropper and returnee hasn’t been out since…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/25/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  3       Race overview  A solid restricted MSW for 3yofs going 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  There’s plenty here in this field-of-10, as more than a few want to be involved early and often.      Trends  The main track seemed to play a bit forward last week, though nothing too out of the ordinary.      Best Play  #2 MO FOR US (5-2): Class dropper exits a very strong 2nd against and open field of MSW runners at OP, so…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/24/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  4       Race overview  A solid 30k MCL for 3upfm going 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  There’s very little here, so expect a bunched group throughout, and a sprint off the far turn.      Trends  The main track seemed to play a bit forward last week, though nothing too out of the ordinary.      Best Play  #6 MISS HARMONIC (3-1): Amoss claim drops in class and gets a big trainer switch, plus runs at a more proper…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/23/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  1       Race overview  A competitive 50k N2L for 3upfm going 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  There’s not a lot here, and these one-turn mile races can get strung out a bit, so they usually play to speed, as it’s tough to make up ground when you get to the far turn.      Trends  The main track seemed to play a bit forward last week, though nothing too out of the ordinary.      Best Play  #3 MITOLE’S LEGACY (4-1): Pace…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/19/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  8       Race overview  A deep and competitive AOC for 3upfm going 1-mile on the turf.       Pace  There’s seemingly plenty here, as a few on the inside want to go, s well as a few from the outside, so a stalking gear seems imperative.       Trends  N/A      Best Play  #3 JUSTIFIABLE BELLE (10-1) (turf only): Stalker came back from a long layoff to win a N1X in style, has the right running style to sit the trip here, and…

Happy Preakness Day!  This is a nice Preakness field headlined by Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan.  The scratch of Muth clarifies the race flow and sets up Imagination as the likely early pace. The question is whether he will get an easy uncontested lead.  The other impact of the Muth scratch is to ensure that Mystik Dan will be a heavy favorite, and therefore an underlay in my view.  Trivia Question: The Dinner Party Stakes was first run in 1870 during Pimlico’s first meet. Who won that first rendition of The Dinner Party?  Race 12 The Dinner Party – Grade III  One Mile and One Furlong on the…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/18/24      Featured track  Pimlico      Race number  11       Race overview  A deep renewal of the Jim McKay Turf Sprint, for 3up going 5Fs on the turf.       Pace  It’s a full field of turf stakes sprinters, several of which want to motor early, so things look extremely hot and contented up front.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #12 BEER CAN MAN (5-2) (turf only): Defending champion was thrown to the wolves in a tough Kee G2 off the long layoff, in a race he obviously needed, but with…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/17/24      Featured track  Pimlico      Race number  8       Race overview  A solid renewal of the Allaire Dupont Distaff, for 3upfm going 1 1/8 miles on the main track.       Pace  Don’t expect much heat here, as there are no true speed horses, and this could play like a turf race, slow early and a sprint late.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #8 SHOTGUN HOTTIE (9-5): The class has been facing tons better and holding her own, has the speed to be close throughout, and could actually offer a…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/16/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  4       Race overview  A full field but a relatively modest group in a N1X for 3upfm going 5 Fs on the turf.       Pace  It’s a turf sprint, so thing should be honest up front, as more than a few want to motor early.       Trends  N/A      Best Play  #8 TWIRL AROUND (5-2) (turf only): Stalker came back running at Kee, for a Foley barn that always aims here, so she looks primed, which is more than you can say…