Handicapping

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  7/7/24      Featured track  Belmont at Aqueduct      Race number  7       Race overview  A deep and competitive NYB N1X for 3upfm going 6 ½ furlongs on the main track.       Pace  There’s very little here, which means it should be a tight group throughout, and a sprint off the far turn.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #8 CAPITAL GAL (5-1): Turf-to-dirt miss aired at FL two-back, and while it may have come from nowhere, it puts her in the mix here, her tactical speed will play, and there’s no…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  7/6/24      Featured track  Belmont at Aqueduct      Race number  4       Race overview  A compact field of 3yof 50k claimers going 6 ½ furlongs on the main track.       Pace  There’s plenty of it on the inside, which suggests this could fall apart in the lane.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #5 LOW SOCIETY (2-1): Rice charge will run on the main for the first time since the claim, and note she won over the track three-back, so there’s a chance she moves way up here, with a…

Happy Belmont Derby Invitational Day!  There are four graded stakes at the Big A including two Grade Is, the Belmont Derby and the Belmont Oaks. These are the first of three legs of the Turf Triple and Turf Tiara for three year old colts and fillies respectively. It’s surprising to see only a field of five for Belmont Derby given the $750k purse, but it’s a very competitive field where any of the starters could win.   Trivia question: Through the first six months of 2024 which trainer has won the most Grade Is?    Race 6 – The Belmont Derby Invitational – Grade I  One Mile and Three…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  7/5/24      Featured track  Belmont at Aqueduct      Race number  9       Race overview  A deep and competitive NYB MSW for 3upfm going 1 1/16 miles on the turf.       Pace  It looks on the tepid side, as there aren’t too many entered who have shown any early foot, so expect a bunched group and a sprint off the far turn.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #6 SUMMER WHIRL (3-1) (turf only): Motion charge broke last and was behind the eight-ball in her debut but still ran on nicely, so…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  7/4/24      Featured track  Belmont at Aqueduct      Race number  5       Race overview  A solid OC/SAL for 3upfm going 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  There’s not much here to prevent #3 Enigmatic (2-1) from making the lead and widening from there.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #3 ENIGMATIC (2-1): Expected Lone F got to Rice and aired on the stiff drop, now rises in class and into a spot where she can’t be claimed, and has the speed to control things early, especially since one of the…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/30/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  7       Race overview  A deep and competitive A/OC for 3yos going 1 1/8 miles on the main track.       Pace  It doesn’t look overly heated, and at this elongated trip you’d expect things to be tempered early, so tactical speed is a plus.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not.      Best Play  #2 GUN PARTY…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/29/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  9       Race overview  A relatively modest renewal of the 250k American Derby for 3yos going 1 1/16 miles on the turf.       Pace  There’s really none here at all, and the best horse – #1 GREEN LIGHT (3-1) – has a hint of it, so expect him to be sent along.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #1 GREEN LIGHT (3-1) (turf only): Expected Lone F dazzled in his MSW win, and while this is a big rise in class,…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/28/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  5       Race overview  A deep and competitive 50k starter-allowance for 3up at 6 ½ Fs on the main track.       Pace  Simply put, there’s a ton of it here, as more than a few want to be involved early and often, which says the winner is coming from off-the-pace.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not.   …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/27/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  8       Race overview  A full field of bottom-level 3upfm 10k MCLs going 7Fs on the main.        Pace  It’s a field of 12, several of which are lightly-raced and/or firsters, so things should be honest up front.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not.      Best Play  #11 TALAVERA (8-1): Class dropper likely needed her last, which…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/26/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  6       Race overview  A solid 40k MCL for 3upfm at 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  There’s a slew of lightly-raced runners here, so expect things to be honest and contested early on.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not.      Best Play  #10 OH MY MIA (4-1): MSW dropper has had eight chances at…