Handicapping

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/24/21      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  6       Race overview  A strong OC/SAL for 4up sprinting 5 ½ Fs on Tapeta.       Pace  There’s plenty here, which means they’ll be flying early, so a stalking gear should play.      Trends  Speed plays sprinting on the Tapeta, as horses routinely fly early and stick around late, so you need to have the ability to lay close.        Best Play  #7 OUTLAW COUNTRY (7-2): Stalker has the speed to be close to what looks like a hot and contested pace,…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/23/21      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  9       Race overview  A strong AOC for f/ms 4up going 1m70 yards on Tapeta (note this was originally scheduled for turf but will VERY likely be run on Tapeta after heavy rains Friday that are going into Saturday).       Pace  Depending on who stays in, it should be honest up front, as a few on the outside want to go early.      Trends  When it rains the Tapeta can tighten up and play to speed and inside runners, which is traditionally not…

Happy Louisiana Derby Day!  The top two finishers in the Louisiana Derby will punch a ticket into the Kentucky Derby given the points that aren’t being awarded to the Baffert trainees who are winning the SoCal preps. The Fair Ground Oaks features four runners coming out of the Rachel Alexandra Stakes.  There is an all stakes late Pick 4 and I have put together a caveman ticket which is detailed below.  Trivia Question: Which jockey has won the most renditions of the Louisiana Derby?  Race 11 – The Fair Grounds Oaks – Grade II  One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies   V…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/22/21      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  6       Race overview  A compact 8k N3L for 4up f/ms sprinting 5 ½ Fs on Tapeta.       Pace  There’s a ton here to keep #1 IMPERIOUSLY (2-1) from making the front and not looking back.      Trends  Speed plays sprinting on the Tapeta, as horses routinely fly early and stick around late, and when it rains, which is in play Friday, speed and the inside can become a conveyer belt.        Best Play  #1 IMPERIOUSLY (2-1): Speedster blasted N2L foes and…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau        Date  3/21/24     Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  9       Race overview  A solid AOC for 4up going 7 ½ Fs on the turf.       Pace  There’s a ton here, as more than a few want to go fast early, which suggests this will be won from off-the-pace.      Trends  Speed plays on the turf, especially when it’s fast and firm, as horses have trouble making up ground, but we’re going to go against that trend here (unless scratches come into play), as there things look very hot and contested up front. …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/20/21      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  3       Race overview  A modest 25k MCL for 3upfm going 7 ½ Fs on the turf.       Pace  There’s not a lot#6 APPLAUSE (2-1) should be able to control things on the stretchout.        Trends  Speed plays on the turf, especially when it’s fast and firm, as horses have trouble making up ground, no matter how fast the splits are.        Best Play  #6 APPLAUSE (2-1) (turf only): Stretch out sprinter is bred for this, goes second-off a brief freshening, and…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/17/21      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  8       Race overview  A modest 25k claimer for 4up f/ms going 1 1/16 miles on turf.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as there are a few who want to be involved early, though don’t expect things to be too heated up front.      Trends  You better have tactical speed at the very least on turf, especially when it’s fast and firm, as races are rarely won from the back.        Best Play  #8 DONTMESSWITHTESS (9-5): Stalker wasn’t given a chance…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/16/21      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  9       Race overview  a deep and competitive full 10k claimer for 4up f/ms sprinting 5 ½ Fs on the Tapeta.       Pace  It’s a Tapeta sprint, so it should be quick, though running with #7 GAYLES EVENING (9-2) could be easier said than done.      Trends  Speed plays sprinting on Tapeta, as horses often last up front, no matter how fast they go early.        Best Play  #7 GAYLES EVENING (9-2): California invader brings some serious speed and Tapeta form…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/15/21      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  7       Race overview  A modest 16k N2L for 3up fm/s going 1 1/16 miles on Tapeta.       Pace  There’s not a ton here, which makes #2 CALMING SEA (9-5) mighty tough on or just off the early lead.      Trends  Speed routing on Tapeta isn’t as lethal as it is sprinting, though it’s never a bad thing to have a tactical edge on your opponents.        Best Play  #2 CALMING SEA (9-5): Unlucky filly was best two-back when DQ’d then got…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/14/21      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  5       Race overview  A strong OC/SAL for 4up going 7Fs on the main track.       Pace  There’s not a ton of pure sprint speed here, so at the very least, you need to be able to lay close early.      Trends  Speed plays on the main, though at this distance things can be a bit more on the fair side, though coming from the back isn’t an ideal recipe for success, regardless.        Best Play  #1 URANIUM (5-1): Streaking sort comes…