Handicapping

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/13/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  10       Race overview  A modest renewal of the G3 Lexington for 3yos at the short stretch/finish line of 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  There’s no real speed here, which should allow #5 Hades (7-2)—provided he gets off to an alert beginning this time—to control things from the start.      Trends  The main track was speedy and inside Opening Weekend, as very few horses came from too far off the pace, and at this short stretch/finish line, it’s next to…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/12/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  3       Race overview  A deep and competitive AOC for 4up going 1 1/8 miles on the mian.       Pace  There’s no real speed here, which suggests a bunched group throughout, and a sprint off the fat turn.      Trends  The main track was speedy and inside Opening Weekend, as very few horses came from too far off the pace.        Best Play  #2 THE PRINCE’S SPUR (5-2): Bauer charge goes for a barn that was waiting in the weeds a bit this…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/11/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  8       Race overview  A stakes-caliber N3X for 4up going 1 1/8 miles on the turf.       Pace  There’s very little signed on, which means you can expect a bunched group that will sprint off the far turn.      Trends  N/A        Best Play  #9 CHASING THE CROWN (5-1): In-form runner has a big edge here, in that he’s been running right along this year and wants this trip, whereas some of his main rivals are off layoffs while (likely) prepping for farther…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                      Date  4/10/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  7       Race overview  A deep and competitive AOC for 3yos going to the short stretch finish line at 1 1/16 miles.       Pace  There’s no real speed here, which means the comebacking   #5 ROCKETEER (7-2) could shake loose early, over a distance/layout that plays to this kind.      Trends  The main track was speedy and inside Opening Weekend, as very few horses came from too far off the pace, and at this short stretch/finish line trip, it can be that much more potent.    …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/7/24     Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  9       Race overview  An extremely weak N1X for 4up fms going 1-mile on the turf.       Pace  It looks a bit on the modest side, as there are no burners, and only a few who want to be close early on.      Trends  They don’t run a lot of turf races at Keeneland, so it’s tough to really get much of a gauge, but on the whole it’s a far turf course.        Best Play  #8 CADENCIA (3-1) (turf only): Stretchout sprinter…

Happy Wood Memorial Day!  Today we get our first big race day of the year in New York with four graded stakes headlined by the Carter Handicap and the Wood Memorial. It’s a nice full field of thirteen in the Wood.  Trivia question: Who is the Carter Handicap named for?  Race 4 – The Carter Handicap  – Grade II  Seven Furlongs on the Dirt for Four Year Olds and Upward  Castle Chaos: Was very good two back in the Fred Hooper where he was wide the whole way and just missed (97 Beyer). Tired in the slop last out in the Stymie. Inside draw should help to establish…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/6/24     Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  10       Race overview  A tremendous renewal of the G1 Blue Grass for 3yos going 1 1/8 miles on the main track.       Pace  It looks potentially hot and contested, as there are more than a few who want to be involved, or close, early on.      Trends  N/A        Best Play  #6 JUST A TOUCH (7-2): Been waiting for this one to run two turns, and now he gets it, as well as (hopefully) a fast main track as well, and his…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/5/24     Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  9       Race overview  A sterling renewal of the G1 Ashland for 3yofs going 1 1/16 miles on the main track, which is a short stretch finish line configuration.       Pace  Expect a compact field, as there are no burners in here, with the majority of the runners wanting to stalk the early proceedings.       Trends  It’s Opening Day, so there’s nothing to go on, but traditionally the short stretch/finish line races are won by horses with tactical speed, at the very least, as…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/30/24      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  6       Race overview  A solid renewal of the G2 Pan American for 4up going 1 ½ miles on the turf.       Pace  There’s not much here, and at this trip, you can expect a compact field that will turn into a sprint off the far turn.      Trends  A firm, fast turf course is going to play to speed, so, at the very least, you need to have the ability to lay close early, as turf routes aren’t usually run from the…

Happy Florida Derby Day!  The Florida Derby headlines a monster card at Gulfstream Park where there are five graded stakes races.  Trivia Question: The Florida Derby has produced fifteen Kentucky Derby winners, who was the most recent?  Race 11 – The Gulfstream Park Oaks – Grade II  One Mile and a Sixteenth on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies  Power Squeeze: Has won three in a row including the Cash Run (82 Beyer) and then the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa with a nice inside trip. Inside draw should allow him to establish position for a stalking trip. Piece of it. Do Gooder: Broke her maiden in her…