Handicapping

Happy Belmont Derby Invitational Day!  There are four graded stakes at the Big A including two Grade Is, the Belmont Derby and the Belmont Oaks. These are the first of three legs of the Turf Triple and Turf Tiara for three year old colts and fillies respectively. It’s surprising to see only a field of five for Belmont Derby given the $750k purse, but it’s a very competitive field where any of the starters could win.   Trivia question: Through the first six months of 2024 which trainer has won the most Grade Is?    Race 6 – The Belmont Derby Invitational – Grade I  One Mile and Three…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  7/5/24      Featured track  Belmont at Aqueduct      Race number  9       Race overview  A deep and competitive NYB MSW for 3upfm going 1 1/16 miles on the turf.       Pace  It looks on the tepid side, as there aren’t too many entered who have shown any early foot, so expect a bunched group and a sprint off the far turn.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #6 SUMMER WHIRL (3-1) (turf only): Motion charge broke last and was behind the eight-ball in her debut but still ran on nicely, so…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  7/4/24      Featured track  Belmont at Aqueduct      Race number  5       Race overview  A solid OC/SAL for 3upfm going 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  There’s not much here to prevent #3 Enigmatic (2-1) from making the lead and widening from there.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #3 ENIGMATIC (2-1): Expected Lone F got to Rice and aired on the stiff drop, now rises in class and into a spot where she can’t be claimed, and has the speed to control things early, especially since one of the…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/30/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  7       Race overview  A deep and competitive A/OC for 3yos going 1 1/8 miles on the main track.       Pace  It doesn’t look overly heated, and at this elongated trip you’d expect things to be tempered early, so tactical speed is a plus.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not.      Best Play  #2 GUN PARTY…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/29/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  9       Race overview  A relatively modest renewal of the 250k American Derby for 3yos going 1 1/16 miles on the turf.       Pace  There’s really none here at all, and the best horse – #1 GREEN LIGHT (3-1) – has a hint of it, so expect him to be sent along.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #1 GREEN LIGHT (3-1) (turf only): Expected Lone F dazzled in his MSW win, and while this is a big rise in class,…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/28/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  5       Race overview  A deep and competitive 50k starter-allowance for 3up at 6 ½ Fs on the main track.       Pace  Simply put, there’s a ton of it here, as more than a few want to be involved early and often, which says the winner is coming from off-the-pace.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not.   …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/27/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  8       Race overview  A full field of bottom-level 3upfm 10k MCLs going 7Fs on the main.        Pace  It’s a field of 12, several of which are lightly-raced and/or firsters, so things should be honest up front.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not.      Best Play  #11 TALAVERA (8-1): Class dropper likely needed her last, which…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/26/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  6       Race overview  A solid 40k MCL for 3upfm at 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  There’s a slew of lightly-raced runners here, so expect things to be honest and contested early on.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not.      Best Play  #10 OH MY MIA (4-1): MSW dropper has had eight chances at…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/23/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  7       Race overview  A competitive 40k N2L for 3up at 7Fs on the main track.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as more than a few want to be close early, though there are no real burners either.      Trends  The main track sped up a bit last week, playing a bit more to speed types, but overall is has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/22/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  4       Race overview  A solid 30k starter-allowance for 3upfm going 1-mile on the main.       Pace  It looks hot and contested, with several who want to be involved early and often, which could/should tilt this to an off-the-pace type.      Trends  The main track sped up a bit last week, playing a bit more to speed types, but overall is has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of…