Handicapping

Happy Florida Derby Day!  The Florida Derby headlines a monster card at Gulfstream Park where there are five graded stakes races.  Trivia Question: The Florida Derby has produced fifteen Kentucky Derby winners, who was the most recent?  Race 11 – The Gulfstream Park Oaks – Grade II  One Mile and a Sixteenth on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies  Power Squeeze: Has won three in a row including the Cash Run (82 Beyer) and then the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa with a nice inside trip. Inside draw should allow him to establish position for a stalking trip. Piece of it. Do Gooder: Broke her maiden in her…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/29/24     Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  4       Race overview  A strong 50k starter-allowance for 4up going 1-mile on the turf.       Pace  There’s no real true speedsters entered, though more than a few want to be close early on.      Trends  A firm, fast turf course is going to play to speed, so, at the very least, you need to have the ability to lay close early, as turf routes aren’t usually run from the back.         Best Play  #6 BROKEN SPUR (5-2) (turf only): Versatile sort…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/28/24     Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  4       Race overview  A modest 25k MCL for 3fs sprinting 5Fs on Tapeta.       Pace  There’s no real burners here, so being able to lay close early seems a must.      Trends  Speed plays sprinting on the Tapeta, as horses routinely fly early and stick around late, so you need to have the ability to lay close.        Best Play  #7 TRAVEL HAPPY (8-5): Pace presser was a good 3rd on debut, drew perfectly for her style, and has more…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/27/21      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  7       Race overview  A very meek AOC for 4up f/ms going 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  There seems more than enough here, as there’s a trio who want to be involved early, which means they could compromise each other.      Trends  It’s tough to make up significant ground on the main track, though the mile races can be fast early, which helps the stalkers late.        Best Play  #1 EVIDENCIAS (6-5): Classy NY invader took I-95 South and found…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/24/21      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  6       Race overview  A strong OC/SAL for 4up sprinting 5 ½ Fs on Tapeta.       Pace  There’s plenty here, which means they’ll be flying early, so a stalking gear should play.      Trends  Speed plays sprinting on the Tapeta, as horses routinely fly early and stick around late, so you need to have the ability to lay close.        Best Play  #7 OUTLAW COUNTRY (7-2): Stalker has the speed to be close to what looks like a hot and contested pace,…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/23/21      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  9       Race overview  A strong AOC for f/ms 4up going 1m70 yards on Tapeta (note this was originally scheduled for turf but will VERY likely be run on Tapeta after heavy rains Friday that are going into Saturday).       Pace  Depending on who stays in, it should be honest up front, as a few on the outside want to go early.      Trends  When it rains the Tapeta can tighten up and play to speed and inside runners, which is traditionally not…

Happy Louisiana Derby Day!  The top two finishers in the Louisiana Derby will punch a ticket into the Kentucky Derby given the points that aren’t being awarded to the Baffert trainees who are winning the SoCal preps. The Fair Ground Oaks features four runners coming out of the Rachel Alexandra Stakes.  There is an all stakes late Pick 4 and I have put together a caveman ticket which is detailed below.  Trivia Question: Which jockey has won the most renditions of the Louisiana Derby?  Race 11 – The Fair Grounds Oaks – Grade II  One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies   V…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/22/21      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  6       Race overview  A compact 8k N3L for 4up f/ms sprinting 5 ½ Fs on Tapeta.       Pace  There’s a ton here to keep #1 IMPERIOUSLY (2-1) from making the front and not looking back.      Trends  Speed plays sprinting on the Tapeta, as horses routinely fly early and stick around late, and when it rains, which is in play Friday, speed and the inside can become a conveyer belt.        Best Play  #1 IMPERIOUSLY (2-1): Speedster blasted N2L foes and…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau        Date  3/21/24     Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  9       Race overview  A solid AOC for 4up going 7 ½ Fs on the turf.       Pace  There’s a ton here, as more than a few want to go fast early, which suggests this will be won from off-the-pace.      Trends  Speed plays on the turf, especially when it’s fast and firm, as horses have trouble making up ground, but we’re going to go against that trend here (unless scratches come into play), as there things look very hot and contested up front. …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/20/21      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  3       Race overview  A modest 25k MCL for 3upfm going 7 ½ Fs on the turf.       Pace  There’s not a lot#6 APPLAUSE (2-1) should be able to control things on the stretchout.        Trends  Speed plays on the turf, especially when it’s fast and firm, as horses have trouble making up ground, no matter how fast the splits are.        Best Play  #6 APPLAUSE (2-1) (turf only): Stretch out sprinter is bred for this, goes second-off a brief freshening, and…