Handicapping

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  12/7/2023     Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  9      Race overview  A solid AOC for 2yofs going 6 ½ furlongs on the main track.       Pace  It looks potentially hot and competitive, as more than a few want to be involved early, and at a tricky distance, it could fall apart late.      Trends  Speed sprinting is never a bad thing, but once you stretch out past 6Fs, things can temper a little, especially if it’s contested early.       Best Play  #6 BOURBON BREEZE (9-5): Impressive debut winner,…

Happy Cigar Mile Day!  It’s inexplicable that the Cigar Mile has been reduced to a Grade II.  Recent winners of the Cigar include Stay Thirsty (Travers), Flat Out (Suburban twice, Jockey Club Gold Cup twice), Tonalist (Belmont, Jockey Club Gold Cup twice), and Maximum Security who won two Grade Is even after he left the Jason Servis barn.  How a race with those winners can be reduced from a Grade I to a Grade II is beyond me, but yet here we are.    But that grading change reveals a bigger issue. The Met Mile is now the only Grade I dirt mile race in North America for three…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  12/2/2023     Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  9      Race overview  The Sabal Palms, a 100k handicap for 3up at 1 1/16 miles on the Tapeta.       Pace  There’s none here to keep #2 VOLCANIC (9-2) from making a loose and lonely lead and controlling things on the front end.      Trends  The Tapeta routes are tilted towards stalker/closers, and generally being down inside is not the spot to be, though a good horse (like Volcanic) can certainly wire them.       Best Play  #2 VOLCANIC (9-2): Lone F looks…

“Play of the Day” by Brian Nadeau Date 12/1/2023 Featured track Gulfstream Park Race number 3   Race overview A solid AOC for Florida-bred f/ms 3up going 1 1/16 miles on the Tapeta.   Pace There’s not much here, and the Tapeta routes tend to play like turf races, with a slow early pace that turns into a sprint off the far turn. Trends The Tapeta routes are tilted towards stalker/closers, and generally being down inside is not the spot to be.   Best Play #4 BOSTON PRINCESS (3-1): Stalker had a troubled trip last time yet rolled home with ease against open foes, and now she’s off-the-claim…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/26/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  9      Race overview  A solid AOC for 3up going 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as both #1 Act a Fool (12-1) and #2 Promise Me a Ride (7-2) want to go from the inside.      Trends  The main track has gotten plenty of use throughout the meet and has held up nicely, while playing fair, with little apparent path or running style biases.       Best Play  #5 CYLCONE MISCHEIF (3-1): Exciting 3yo and Kentucky Derby…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/25/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  2      Race overview  A middling MSW for 2yos at 7Fs on the main track.       Pace  There’s a full field with several first-time starters, so things should be honest, and potentially competitive, up front.      Trends  The main track has gotten plenty of use throughout the meet and has held up nicely, while playing fair, with little apparent path or running style biases.       Best Play  #3 LEGALIZE (7-2): Pricey son of Constitution was a troubled 5th on debut while favored…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/24/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  3      Race overview  A 20k N3L for FMs without a lot of firepower at 6Fs on the main.       Pace  There’s not much here, save #3 Buckeye Rose (4-1), which means #7 SONADOR (7-2) should have a dream trip stalking her to the outside and getting first run on the rest.      Trends  The main track has gotten plenty of use throughout the meet and has held up nicely, while playing fair, with little apparent path or running style biases.      …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/23/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  4      Race overview  A decent 30k MCL for 2yos routing 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  It should be honest and potentially competitive, as several have shown signs of wanting to be close early, including more than a few trying two turns for the first time.      Trends  The main track has gotten plenty of use throughout the meet and has held up nicely, while playing fair, with little apparent path or running style biases.       Best Play …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/22/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  1      Race overview  A modest 20k MCL for FM 3up going 6 ½ Fs on the main track.       Pace  There’s not much here, save #8 Willadean (8-1), so you’ll likely want to be close early.      Trends  The main track has gotten plenty of use throughout the meet and has held up nicely, while playing fair, with little apparent path or running style biases.       Best Play  #4 DAISY JONES (4-1): There’s little to no upside with anyone else in…