Handicapping

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/28/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  9       Race overview  A relatively modest renewal of the G3 Falls City for fillies & mares at 1 1/8 miles on the main track.       Pace  It seems honest enough, as there are a few who want to be involved early, but at this elongated trip, don’t expect things to be too heated up front, and/or fall into a stretch runner’s lap.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere and all paths, and things…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/27/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  2       Race overview  A solid 25k claimer for 3up going 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  There’s not much here, which suggests this will be a compact group early, and turn into a sprint off the far turn late.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere and all paths, and things even had a slight off-the-pace type of feel this weekend.      Best Play  #5 UNSTABLE PRINCE (5-2): Jacobson runners drops stiffly for…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/24/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  10       Race overview  A deep and competitive 50k starter-allowance for 3up at 7 furlongs.       Pace  It’s a full field with more than a few who want to be close early, so things look honest and potentially heated up front.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #5 MORUNNING (47-2): Stalker will love the pace he can sit off of up front, was just…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/23/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  4       Race overview  A watered down 50k MCL for 3up at 6 furlongs.       Pace  It’s a full field with more than a few who want to be close early, so things look honest and potentially heated up front.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #3 LEVEE WAS DRY (4-1): Seemingly astute Asmussen claim (16%) was taken out of a 20k and bumped up,…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/22/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  3       Race overview  A seemingly two-horse MSW for 3up at 6 ½ furlongs.       Pace  There’s not a ton on paper, which will flatter the chances of   #7 EVAN ON EARTH (2-1), while potentially hurting those of #3 Top Gun Rocket (8-5).      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #7 EVAN ON EARTH (2-1): Pace player was a good 2nd in his return off…

    Date  11/21/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  3       Race overview  A full field of 12, but an extremely weak—even for this level—20k MCL for 2yos at 1 1/16 miles.       Pace  There’s not a ton on paper, as several of these have shown little to no speed at all, which suggests things will be a crawl early on.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #1 HAUNTED FLAME (4-1): MSW dropper has chased and tired in two starts, one on…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/20/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  7       Race overview  A relatively modest 25k claimer for 3up at 6 ½ furlongs.       Pace  It seems honest enough, as there are a few on the inside who want to show early foot, along with the well-drawn pace presser  #7 BRITERDAYZAHEAD (5-2).      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #7 BRITERDAYZAHEAD (5-2): In-form runner is looking for three straight, as he goes off-the-claim…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/17/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  8       Race overview  A solid AOC for 3up at 6 1’2 furlongs on the main track.       Pace  It looks a bit on the mild side, as there aren’t too many who want to be close, and/or vie for the lead.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #6 KAVOD (9-5): Classy veteran got untracked with a big—and fast—2nd last time, drew perfectly for…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/16/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  9       Race overview  A predictably deep and competitive Claiming Crown Sprint for 3up at 7 furlongs on the main track.       Pace  It sure looks honest enough, as there are more than a few in here who want to be close and involved early.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #8 GLOBAL SENSATION (2-1): Raging hot runner is a head away from a…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/15/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  6       Race overview  A seemingly modest MSW for 2yofs at 5 furlongs.       Pace  There are a slew of firsters who have worked very fast, in addition to some experienced runners who have shown speed too, so the pace, especially at this trip, looks extremely hot and contested.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #7 DESERT ADVENTURE (9-2): Godolphin homebred has a huge…