Handicapping

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  12/14/2023     Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  9      Race overview  A very competitive 25k MCL sprinting 5Fs on Tapeta.       Pace  It looks a bit on the tempered side, especially for a Tapeta sprint, as there’s not a ton of true gate speed entered, which means a tight group to the far turn seems likely.      Trends  You better have tactical speed at the very least in Tapeta sprints, as horses just won’t come from too far off the pace.       Best Play  #3 BE LUCKY (5-2): MSW…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau Date 12/10/2023 Featured track Gulfstream Park Race number 10   Race overview A competitive 25k claimer for 3up going 7Fs on the main.   Pace There’s plenty here inside, so a stalking gear, and/or outside attack post would work, which is what #7 SOGNO DI CAMPIONE (5-2) has. Trends Speed sprinting is never a bad thing, but once you stretch out past 6Fs, things can temper a little, especially if it’s contested early.   Best Play #7 SOGNO DI CAMPIONE (5-2): Versatile sort was doing the Tapeta thing at PID but has plenty of proven dirt form, drew perfectly for the…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau Date 12/9/2023 Featured track Gulfstream Park Race number 2   Race overview A very strong AOC (25k/N1X) for 3up going 1-mile on the turf.   Pace It looks honest enough, and potentially even a tad fast, as there’s more than a few here who want to be close early on. Trends It’s very early in the return of the newly rebuilt turf course, with only two days of racing so far, but it’s pretty clear not much will change, and that speed is always going to be an advantage.   Best Play #7 HEADLINE NEWS (6-1) (turf only): Lightly-raced runner beat…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  12/8/2023      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  9      Race overview  A solid 35k claimer for 3up going 1-mile on the turf.       Pace  There seems to be more than enough here to tilt this to the stalkers who can lay close and get first run.      Trends  It’s very early in the return of the newly rebuilt turf course, with only two days of racing so far, but it’s pretty clear not much will change, and that speed is always going to be an advantage.       Best Play …

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  12/7/2023     Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  9      Race overview  A solid AOC for 2yofs going 6 ½ furlongs on the main track.       Pace  It looks potentially hot and competitive, as more than a few want to be involved early, and at a tricky distance, it could fall apart late.      Trends  Speed sprinting is never a bad thing, but once you stretch out past 6Fs, things can temper a little, especially if it’s contested early.       Best Play  #6 BOURBON BREEZE (9-5): Impressive debut winner,…

Happy Cigar Mile Day!  It’s inexplicable that the Cigar Mile has been reduced to a Grade II.  Recent winners of the Cigar include Stay Thirsty (Travers), Flat Out (Suburban twice, Jockey Club Gold Cup twice), Tonalist (Belmont, Jockey Club Gold Cup twice), and Maximum Security who won two Grade Is even after he left the Jason Servis barn.  How a race with those winners can be reduced from a Grade I to a Grade II is beyond me, but yet here we are.    But that grading change reveals a bigger issue. The Met Mile is now the only Grade I dirt mile race in North America for three…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  12/2/2023     Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  9      Race overview  The Sabal Palms, a 100k handicap for 3up at 1 1/16 miles on the Tapeta.       Pace  There’s none here to keep #2 VOLCANIC (9-2) from making a loose and lonely lead and controlling things on the front end.      Trends  The Tapeta routes are tilted towards stalker/closers, and generally being down inside is not the spot to be, though a good horse (like Volcanic) can certainly wire them.       Best Play  #2 VOLCANIC (9-2): Lone F looks…

“Play of the Day” by Brian Nadeau Date 12/1/2023 Featured track Gulfstream Park Race number 3   Race overview A solid AOC for Florida-bred f/ms 3up going 1 1/16 miles on the Tapeta.   Pace There’s not much here, and the Tapeta routes tend to play like turf races, with a slow early pace that turns into a sprint off the far turn. Trends The Tapeta routes are tilted towards stalker/closers, and generally being down inside is not the spot to be.   Best Play #4 BOSTON PRINCESS (3-1): Stalker had a troubled trip last time yet rolled home with ease against open foes, and now she’s off-the-claim…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/26/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  9      Race overview  A solid AOC for 3up going 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as both #1 Act a Fool (12-1) and #2 Promise Me a Ride (7-2) want to go from the inside.      Trends  The main track has gotten plenty of use throughout the meet and has held up nicely, while playing fair, with little apparent path or running style biases.       Best Play  #5 CYLCONE MISCHEIF (3-1): Exciting 3yo and Kentucky Derby…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/25/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  2      Race overview  A middling MSW for 2yos at 7Fs on the main track.       Pace  There’s a full field with several first-time starters, so things should be honest, and potentially competitive, up front.      Trends  The main track has gotten plenty of use throughout the meet and has held up nicely, while playing fair, with little apparent path or running style biases.       Best Play  #3 LEGALIZE (7-2): Pricey son of Constitution was a troubled 5th on debut while favored…