Handicapping

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/26/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  9      Race overview  A solid AOC for 3up going 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as both #1 Act a Fool (12-1) and #2 Promise Me a Ride (7-2) want to go from the inside.      Trends  The main track has gotten plenty of use throughout the meet and has held up nicely, while playing fair, with little apparent path or running style biases.       Best Play  #5 CYLCONE MISCHEIF (3-1): Exciting 3yo and Kentucky Derby…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/25/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  2      Race overview  A middling MSW for 2yos at 7Fs on the main track.       Pace  There’s a full field with several first-time starters, so things should be honest, and potentially competitive, up front.      Trends  The main track has gotten plenty of use throughout the meet and has held up nicely, while playing fair, with little apparent path or running style biases.       Best Play  #3 LEGALIZE (7-2): Pricey son of Constitution was a troubled 5th on debut while favored…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/24/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  3      Race overview  A 20k N3L for FMs without a lot of firepower at 6Fs on the main.       Pace  There’s not much here, save #3 Buckeye Rose (4-1), which means #7 SONADOR (7-2) should have a dream trip stalking her to the outside and getting first run on the rest.      Trends  The main track has gotten plenty of use throughout the meet and has held up nicely, while playing fair, with little apparent path or running style biases.      …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/23/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  4      Race overview  A decent 30k MCL for 2yos routing 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  It should be honest and potentially competitive, as several have shown signs of wanting to be close early, including more than a few trying two turns for the first time.      Trends  The main track has gotten plenty of use throughout the meet and has held up nicely, while playing fair, with little apparent path or running style biases.       Best Play …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/22/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  1      Race overview  A modest 20k MCL for FM 3up going 6 ½ Fs on the main track.       Pace  There’s not much here, save #8 Willadean (8-1), so you’ll likely want to be close early.      Trends  The main track has gotten plenty of use throughout the meet and has held up nicely, while playing fair, with little apparent path or running style biases.       Best Play  #4 DAISY JONES (4-1): There’s little to no upside with anyone else in…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/19/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  7      Race overview  A modest MSW for 2yos going 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  It’s a field of 10 lightly-raced runners, with a slew of firsters too, so things should be fast and competitive early on.      Trends  The main track played very fair last week, with winners coming from everywhere, and there were no apparent path biases either.       Best Play  #5 MIYAGI (3-1): Catalano charge was 5-2 on debut in a big field at Keeneland and had…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/18/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  4      Race overview  A seemingly competitive 20k MCL for 3up at 6 ½ Fs on the main.       Pace  There’s not a lot of true sprint speed signed on, which means if #8 CHITWOOD (9-2) breaks running this time, he can clear off early.      Trends  The main track played very fair last week, with winners coming from everywhere, and there were no apparent path biases either.       Best Play  #8 CHITWOOD (9-2): The expected speed didn’t break last time, then…