Handicapping

Happy Joe Hirsch Turf Day – Take 2!  The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic was planned for last weekend but the record rainfall downstate meant the turf course at the Big A was not available, so the race has been redrawn for today.  As a result, we now have a “Super Saturday” card with six graded stakes including three Grade 1s.   These are the last Grade 1 races in New York for the year. The next Grade 1 in New York will be the Carter Handicap run on Wood Memorial Day six months from now. But wait, what about the Cigar Mile that’s run in December?  That great race…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/6/2022      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  5      Race overview  A predictably deep and competitive conditioned allowance for 3yof going 5 ½ Fs on the turf.       Pace  It looks supersonic and contested, as several in here want to motor early and often, which says a stalker/closer can rule the day.      Trends  N/A       Best Play  #8 DARING DO (9-2): Local course and distance winner fits the race profile, in that she should be able to settle off the speed early and get first run, and the freshening…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/1/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  7      Race overview  A seemingly solid MSW for 2yos going 1-mile on the main.       Pace  It should be honest, as there are a few first-time starters from ace connections that figure to show speed, and some experienced runners who will as well.      Trends  The main track really seemed to tilt towards stalker/closers over the weekend, which is worth keeping an eye on as they come back for another five-day race week.        Best Play  #5 STRONGHOLD (4-1): Impressive runner…

Note: According to a NYRA press release, “The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) has moved Saturday’s 11-race card at Aqueduct Racetrack to Sunday and pushed Sunday’s 10-race program to Wednesday due to torrential rainfall causing widespread flooding and hazardous conditions in the New York metropolitan area.” Happy Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Day!  We have four graded stakes at Aqueduct headlined by the Grade I Joe Hirsch Turf Classic along with three Grade IIs; the Woodward, the Vosburgh, and the Gallant Bloom. Plan for off going as it appears the NYC metro area will get several inches of rain Friday into Saturday.  Trivia Question: Only two fillies have…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/30/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  3      Race overview  A strong 50k claimer for 3up going 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  It doesn’t look overly heated, as there’s not a lot of true confirmed speed, so tactical speed, at the very least, should be preferred.       Trends  The main track really seemed to tilt towards stalker/closers over the weekend, which is worth keeping an eye on as they come back for another five-day race week.        Best Play  #3 ROYAL ACT (4-1): Class…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/29/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  5      Race overview  A solid 40k claimer for 3up going 6Fs on the main track.        Pace  It looks hot and contested between #6 Tee Burns (8-1) and #9 Tape to Tape (5-2), which should set it up for presser/stalker #2 UPSTRIKER (2-1).      Trends  The main track really seemed to tilt towards stalker/closers over the weekend, which is worth keeping an eye on as they come back for another five-day race week.        Best Play  #2 UPSTRIKER (2-1): Rice claim…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadea u Date: 9/28/2023 Featured Track/Race: Churchill Downs – Race 3   Race overview: A non-descript 32k claimer for f/ms going 1 1/16 miles on the main.   Pace: There’s none here, which means #2 VITAEMI (3-1) should be able to control things on the stretchout after a paid of Saratoga sprints. Trends: The main track has predominantly fair for the meet, though over the weekend it did tilt slightly towards off-the-pace runners.   Best Play: #2 VITAEMI (3-1): Expected Lone F dueled and tired sprinting twice at Saratoga against solid groups, confidently rises in class here, and shouldn’t have to work…