Handicapping

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  9/16/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 5      Race overview:  A middling 75k N2L for 3up going 7Fs on the main track.       Pace:  There’s very little here to keep #1 QUICK HAMMER (3-1) from making the front and controlling the early tempo.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #1 Quick Hammer (3-1): Expected Lone F couldn’t make a dent against allowance runners at Ellis but meets some friends here, many of which are dead one-run closers, which gives him a huge tactical edge.      Bet Types:    Aggressive WP…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  9/15/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 6      Race overview:  A competitive 50k starter-allowance for 3upfm going 6 ½ furlongs on the main track.       Pace:  It looks honest, and potentially on the hot side, as there are more than a few who drew wide that want to be involved early.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #2 What’s to Do (5-2): Rare D’Amato claim has been freshened off an easy stalking MCL win here in June, and note she’s stayed locally and hasn’t missed a beat in the…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  9/14/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 6      Race overview:  A solid 2yof AOC going 6 ½ furlongs on the main track.       Pace:  It looks hot and contested, as many of these lightly-raced fillies zipped on or just off the lead to break their maiden, which means this could melt down in the lane, especially at this tricky distance.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #6 Raining Sugar (8-1): Stalker was visually impressive breaking her maiden at 5 ½ furlongs on debut at Ellis, and that running style will…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  9/13/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Kentucky Downs – Race 1      Race overview:  A seemingly meek MSW for 2yo fillies going 6 ½ furlongs.       Pace:  There are a slew of first-time starters entered, and the sketchy ML favorite #4 Ocean Mermaid (5-2) is fast as well, so things should be heated up front.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #7 Movin’ On Up (7-2): Stalker was a good 2nd on debut for Walsh, who never cranks them and likely had this spot in mind all along, so with an expected big move…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  9/9/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Kentucky Downs – Race 10      Race overview:  A predictably deep and competitive renewal of the G2 Turf Sprint at 6 furlongs.       Pace:  It looks honest enough but not overly heated, though over this funky course, pace can be a bit tricky, and somewhat overrated too.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #12 Dr Zempf (6-1): Lightly-raced runner enters fresh for Brown, after a troubled trip when cutting back in the G1 Jaipur, his first U.S. one-turn start, and with all his foundation, this trip should be…