Handicapping

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/6/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  7       Race overview  A competitive 50k starter-allowance for 2yo fillies at 6Fs.       Pace  It should be honest, as more than a few have shown speed, or the desire to press the early pace.      Trends  The main track had a very fair feel to it last week, with winners coming from everywhere, and Sunday even seemed to tilt towards off-the-pace runners a bit.      Best Play  #1 AUTUMN RHYTHM (4-1): Sharp restricted MSW debut winner settled nicely before punching…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/3/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  3       Race overview  A very modest 16k N2L for fm3up at 7 furlongs on the main track.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as there’s speed from the inside (#3) and from the outside as well (#9).      Trends  The main track has alternated between fast and sloppy early on during the meet, which makes it hard to gauge if there are any preferred running styles or paths.      Best Play  #5 MOON FLEET (3-1): In-form runner (which is more…

Happy Breeders’ Cup Day!  Today is the big day. We have eight Grade 1s and many of these races will determine divisional championships for 2024. Both the Classic and the Turf are pretty wide open affairs where you can go five or six different directions.    Race 7 – Breeders’ Cup Turf– Grade I  One Mile and One Half on the Turf for Three Year Olds and Upward   Rousham Park: Long shot Japanese runner won four of six starts as a four year old but has not followed that success up as a five year old with no wins from three starts and didn’t show much in…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/2/24      Featured track  Del Mar      Race number  7       Race overview  A seemingly modest renewal of the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf, as the home team is well, well below average, and the Europeans don’t seem to have sent their very best over either.       Pace  Things seem on the tepid side, to say the least, as this is a marathon, and on paper there’s very few who want to motor early, which suggests this will turn into a sprint off the far turn.      Trends  N/A      Best…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/1/24      Featured track  Del Mar      Race number  9       Race overview  A strong renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at 1 1/16 miles       Pace  It seems honest, and potentially hot, with #1 East Avenue forced to go from the inside, and more than a few others to his outside who will want to be forwardly placed early.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #4 FEROCIOUS (6-1): Unlucky sort was a bit of a bad actor prior to the start G1 Breeders’ Futurity when East Avenue got loose…

Happy Future Stars Friday!  We have five Grade I races today at Del Mar as we celebrate the best two year old fillies and colts.     Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – Grade I  One Mile and a Sixteenth on the Dirt for Two Year Olds  East Avenue: Speedster successfully stretched out in his second start taking the field the whole way in the Breeders Futurity (95 Beyer). He’ll need to break well to establish position. If he does then he is dangerous. Using Getaway Car: Baffert stretched out this Curlin colt in the American Pharaoh and he was left chasing but ran on well for second (86…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/31/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  4       Race overview  A n average looking 30k N2L for fm3up at 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  it seems honest enough, as both #2 Fancy Fascinator and #4 Trotter want to be involved early.      Trends  It’s just one card and nine races, but Opening Day (Sunday) played a bit off-the-pace, as speed struggled to hold, which is worth monitoring as the meet moves on.      Best Play  #7 GOURMET (5-2): Class dropper was a good 3rd on…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/30/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  2       Race overview  A seemingly average field of 50k MCL’ers going 6 furlongs on the main track.       Pace  It looks honest, as there are more than a few who want to be close and involved early on.      Trends  It’s just one card and nine races, but Opening Day (Sunday) played a bit off-the-pace, as speed struggled to hold, which is worth monitoring as the meet moves on.      Best Play  #5 ALL THE LUCK (4-1): MSW dropper also…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/27/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  2       Race overview  A solid field of 2yo fillies in a 50k starter-allowance at 1-mile.       Pace  It looks hot and contested, as more than a few broke their maiden on or just off the early lead, and now stretching out, that could make things dicey in the lane.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #8 EQUAL SUCCESS (4-1): Sharp runner won on debut for a barn that never has them cranked, which says right away to take notice, and…

Happy Mother Goose Day!  There are three graded stakes that anchor a nice card at the Big A today. After finishing second and third behind Thorpedo Anna respectively Gun Song and Tarifa run in the Mother Goose.  Trivia Question: Next week is the Breeders’ Cup. When is the last time New York hosted this championship event?  Race 8 – The Forty Niner – Grade III  One Mile on the Dirt for Three Year Olds and Upward  Repo Rocks: Last out he was impressive in the two turn Parx Dirt Mile where he was up on a hot pace early and still hung on for second as Coastal Mission…