Handicapping

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  12/7/24      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  4       Race overview  A compact 17.5k N2L for 3up at 1m & 70 yards on Tapeta.       Pace  There’s not much here, which suggests a compact group early and a sprint off the far turn.      Trends  Tapeta routes are typically won by stalker/closers who can settle and make a late run, as speed can struggle early, with outside paths preferred, as the inside can bog down.      Best Play  #6 FREAKAZOID (2-1): Dominant MCL winner got to Tapeta off…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  12/6/24      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  5       Race overview  A modest 12.5k N2L for 3up at 5 ½ furlongs on the Tapeta.       Pace  There’s seems enough here to keep it honest up front, as there are more than a few who want to be involved/close early on.      Trends  Tapeta sprints are usually won by horses who can lay close, at the very least, with outside paths preferred, as the inside can bog down.      Best Play  #9 GUAICAIPURO (5-2): Stiff class dropper has been…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  12/5/24      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  6       Race overview  A solid MSW for 2yo fillies at 5 furlongs on the turf.       Pace  It’s a turf sprint, so it figures fast, though you also have to think the speed of the speed will come from the well-bred firster, #4 SWEET KAUFY (5-2).      Trends  A firm, fast turf course has been a paved highway to kick off the Championship Meet, with horses wiring routinely, no matter how fast they have been going early on.      Best…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/30/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  2       Race overview  An extremely weak MSW for 2yo fillies at 1 1/16 miles.       Pace  There’s not much, at least on paper, which means #3 RUNNING AWAY (3-1) should be on or just off the early lead.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere and all paths, and things even had a slight off-the-pace type of feel this weekend.      Best Play  #3 RUNNING AWAY (3-1): Daughter of Curlin was oddly on…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/29/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  7       Race overview  A solid 50k claimer for 3upfm at 6 furlongs on the main track.       Pace  It looks hot and contested, as more than a few want to be close and involved early on.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere and all paths, and things even had a slight off-the-pace type of feel this weekend.      Best Play  #7 PROGENY (5-2): Stalker looked good winning on the dirt at BAQ…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/28/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  9       Race overview  A relatively modest renewal of the G3 Falls City for fillies & mares at 1 1/8 miles on the main track.       Pace  It seems honest enough, as there are a few who want to be involved early, but at this elongated trip, don’t expect things to be too heated up front, and/or fall into a stretch runner’s lap.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere and all paths, and things…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/27/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  2       Race overview  A solid 25k claimer for 3up going 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  There’s not much here, which suggests this will be a compact group early, and turn into a sprint off the far turn late.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere and all paths, and things even had a slight off-the-pace type of feel this weekend.      Best Play  #5 UNSTABLE PRINCE (5-2): Jacobson runners drops stiffly for…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/24/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  10       Race overview  A deep and competitive 50k starter-allowance for 3up at 7 furlongs.       Pace  It’s a full field with more than a few who want to be close early, so things look honest and potentially heated up front.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #5 MORUNNING (47-2): Stalker will love the pace he can sit off of up front, was just…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/23/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  4       Race overview  A watered down 50k MCL for 3up at 6 furlongs.       Pace  It’s a full field with more than a few who want to be close early, so things look honest and potentially heated up front.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #3 LEVEE WAS DRY (4-1): Seemingly astute Asmussen claim (16%) was taken out of a 20k and bumped up,…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/22/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  3       Race overview  A seemingly two-horse MSW for 3up at 6 ½ furlongs.       Pace  There’s not a ton on paper, which will flatter the chances of   #7 EVAN ON EARTH (2-1), while potentially hurting those of #3 Top Gun Rocket (8-5).      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #7 EVAN ON EARTH (2-1): Pace player was a good 2nd in his return off…