Handicapping

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  7/14/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Saratoga – Race 10      Race overview:  A full field of 12 35k claimers routing 1 1/16 miles on the turf.       Pace:  Expect things to be slow early and a sprint late, as there’s not a ton of early speed entered—at least on paper.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #3 HILLIARD (7-2) (turf only): Versatile sort was a month the best last time but had plenty of trouble, yet still ran only strongly in a speed race, and now looks primed against this group.     …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  7/9/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Belmont Park – Race 6      Race overview:  A competitive 30k N2L for 3up routing 1 1/16 on the inner turf.       Pace:  There’s not much here, which means #6 NO REGARD (15-1), with Carmouche up, may be aggressive and try to make the front over #3 Spettro (6-1), who is the speed on paper, but isn’t all that fast.      Trends:  The turf course has been fast and firm for the majority of the meet, which has yielded quick splits while showing a penchant for carrying speed a…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  7/8/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Belmont Park – Race 10      Race overview:  A deep and competitive renewal of the G1 Belmont Derby for 3yos, going 1 ¼ miles on the inner turf.       Pace:  Expect a slow pace with a bunched group, led by #8 Kalik (5-1), who wired the local prep, the G2 Pennine Ridge last time.      Trends:  The turf course has been fast and firm for the majority of the meet, which has yielded quick splits while showing a penchant for carrying speed a bit farther than you might expect. …

Happy Belmont Derby Day!  Today is excellent card headlined by the first legs of the Turf Triple and Fillies Turf Triple for three year olds.  The second legs will be run at Saratoga in August and the final races in the sequence will be held at Aqueduct in the Fall.   Race 8 – The Belmont Oaks Invitational – Grade I  One Mile and One Quarter on the Inner Turf for Three Year Old Fillies   This is a competitive race with a couple of good Euros as well as the top two finishers from both the Wonder Again Stakes at Belmont and the Regret Stakes at Churchill.   Mission of…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  7/7/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Belmont Park – Race 7      Race overview:  A solid MSW going 1 ¼ miles on the turf for 3up, with several who appear to have talent.       Pace:  There’s no burners here, and going this long, you should things to be tepid early, with a late sprint looming.      Trends:  The turf course has been fast and firm for the majority of the meet, which has yielded quick splits while showing a penchant for carrying speed a bit farther than you might expect.       Best Play:  #2…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  7/2/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 1      Race overview:  A meek 50k N2L for f/ms sprinting 6Fs on the main, with very few who have the form to win.       Pace:  There’s none here, aside from #5 EMPIRE OF MY OWNA (3-1), who should shake loose early over a track that has played to her kind.      Trends:  It’s now painfully obvious that there is as intense an inside rail bias on the main track that has been seen in quite some time, as countless winners have wired on the…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  7/1/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 11      Race overview:  A solid renewal of the Tepin, for 3yof going 1-mile on turf.       Pace:  It’s pretty cut and dried, as #3 Heavenly Sunday (5-2) will carve out the splits, with #5 XIGERA (2-1) spying her from the outside.      Trends:  N/A: They just haven’t run enough turf races to get any definitive feel, not to mention they’ve been forced OFF of late as well.       Best Play:  #5 XIGERA (2-1) (turf only): Classy 2yo toyed with a group of older…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/30/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 6      Race overview:  A modest 20k MCL routing 1 1/16 miles on the main.       Pace:  There’s none here, aside from #4 EMBRACEABLE (8-1), who should shake loose early, against a field littered with deep closers too.      Trends:  It’s now painfully obvious that there is as intense an inside rail bias on the main track that has been seen in quite some time, as countless winners have wired on the rail, many of which have been implausible, or certainly down the pecking order…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/29/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 8      Race overview:  A deep and competitive AOC at 1 1/8 miles on the main for f/ms.       Pace:  I’m expecting #4 MAGIC BUBBLES (6-1) to control things early, as she had a disadvantageous outside post last time and got caught dueling with #5 She’s Lookin Lucky (3-1) last time, but drew much better here, and after frying the latter, you’d think that miss won’t want to get caught up with her again early here.      Trends:  It’s now painfully obvious that there is…