Handicapping

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/15/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Keeneland – Race 8      Race overview:  A deep and competitive renewal of the Giant’s Causeway for fillies & mares sprinting 5 1/2Fs on the turf.       Pace:  It’s a turf sprint, so expect some heat up front, as several in here want to motor early, which means the stalkers/closers should have a big chance in the lane.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #11 LITTLE JEWEL (8-1) (turf only): BC Turf winner Little Mike’s little sis is all sprint, and was awesome winning her last two…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/14/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Keeneland – Race 5      Race overview:  A strong N1X routing on the turf for 3yo fillies, with several different ways to go.       Pace:  It doesn’t look overly fast, but also there’s no one in here who looks loose on the lead either, so expect a bunched group early and a sprint off the far turn.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #1 MRS. ASTOR (6-1) (turf only): Impressive GP filly won against the grain of the turf, as rallying from off the pace isn’t ideal, but…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/13/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Keeneland – Race 8      Race overview:  A typically strong N2X routing on the grass, with several who can win, but none with the upside of #7 STRONG QUALITY (9-2), who looked awesome winning his turf bow in February at Gulfstream.       Pace:  There’s very little here on paper, so being able to lay close is preferred, and it wouldn’t be surprised if #7 STRONG QUALITY (9-2) finds himself walking on the lead, as he’s as fast as anyone here.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #7 STRONG…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/12/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Keeneland – Race 1      Race overview:  A mixed bag 25k claimer sprinting 7Fs on the main, with several who come in off Tapeta form at TP while showing very little dirt form, which is not the case with #3 EDGEE ANGEL (2-1), who was 2nd in her only start at Kee.       Pace:  It doesn’t look too hot at all, as most of these want to stalk or come from behind, so being able to lay close early seems imperative.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #3…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/8/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Keeneland – Race 5      Race overview:  A strong renewal of the G3 Commonwealth, with several legit graded stakes sprinters, but it’s the “router,” #7 RUN CLASSIC (3-1) who has been begging for a cutback to shine.       Pace:  Oddly enough, there’s not much here for a graded stakes sprint, so you better be close early.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #7 RUN CLASSIC (3-1): Talented sort has been routing but his best lifetime race was right here at this trip, he brings plenty of foundation for…

Happy Wood Memorial Day!  Today we get our first big race day in New York with four graded stakes races co-headlined by the Grade I Carter and the Grade II Wood Memorial. The late Pick 5 and Pick 4 sequences at Aqueduct are pretty tough with a state bred maiden filly and mare turf sprint carded in between the Carter and Wood. Wouldn’t all stakes Pick 4 made sense. Oh well, good luck to all!  Race 8 – The Carter Handicap  – Grade I  Seven Furlongs on the Dirt for Four Year Olds and Upward  Today’s Flavor: Winner of four in a row since George Weaver took over…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/7/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Keeneland – Race 8      Race overview:  A strong renewal of the G3 Transylvania for 3yos routing on the turf, though #11 CARL SPACKLER (3-1) is a true star in the making.       Pace:  It should be honest, at the very least, as there are more than a few here who want to be close early, which means they could be forced to motor to secure position into the first turn.      Trends:  The ONE SHEET transitions from a GP turf course where you basically have to be close…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/2/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 1      Race overview:  A below-average 16k claimer routing on the turf, which means the class riser #3 WINNING FACTOR (5-2) should be tough.       Pace:  It looks on the slow side, so expect a compact group early and a sprint off the far turn.      Trends:  You want to be close on the turf, as horses don’t come back often, and it played out that way in the middle-distance routes Saturday.       Best Play:  #3 WINNING FACTOR (5-2): Veteran impressed winning on the…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/1/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 4      Race overview:  A solid AOC for older going a mile on the main.       Pace:  Ut should be honest, and potentially hot, as more than a few want to be involved early, and things tend to get heated at this trip.      Trends:  You want to be close on the main, but at a one-turn mile, if they go fast early, it’s tougher to last (as opposed to 6 and 7F sprints).       Best Play:  #1 GIANT GAME (9-2): Improving and classy…

Happy Florida Derby Day!  This does not appear to be the deepest Florida Derby field as only half of the entrants have run a Beyer fig north of 85.  However, this field does include the clear leader of the division, Forte, who cemented his position with a dominating win in the Fountain of Youth.  Todd Pletcher will saddle Forte as he aims to extend his own record win total in the Florida Derby to seven.     Race 12 – The Gulfstream Park Oaks – Grade II  One Mile and a Sixteenth on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies  Flakes: Runs here off a win against N1X Florida…