Handicapping

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/13/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 3      Race overview:  A predictably deep and competitive 20k starter-allowance that has several with winning chances.       Pace:  There’s not much here, and several who want to come from well out of it, which means #3 SLAM DUNK SERMON (9-2) has a big edge, provided he breaks this time.      Trends:  The main track had a speed/inside feel to it early on Derby Day but it evened out late for sure. And as a whole, it’s been fair throughout the meet, though speed and…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/12/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 4      Race overview:  A compact 50k claimer for older sprinting 6Fs on the main.       Pace:  There’s not much here, which means from a perfect outside attack post, #6 DIVINE LEADER (5-2) should be primed the entire way.      Trends:  The main track had a speed/inside feel to it early on Derby Day but it evened out late for sure. And as a whole, it’s been fair throughout the meet, though speed and being forward is always preferred.        Best Play:  #6 DIVINE…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/11/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 3      Race overview:  A predictably deep and competitive 50k starter-allowance for f/m going 6 ½ furlongs on the main.       Pace:  There’s not much here, as #3 Tell Me When (7-2) should be controlling, with #5 CHARLEE MAE (8-1) closest, while several other major contenders have no speed at all.      Trends:  The main track had a speed/inside feel to it early on Derby Day but it evened out late for sure. And as a whole, it’s been fair throughout the meet, though…

  Tuesday, May 9    RACE 1   BEST PLAY  3-Cavaradossi should get the card started with a victory. He won by 14 lengths at Finger Lakes last June. Returns this year from Aqueduct at reduced level  RACE PACE  Double Vision seems to have the early foot outside.   TRENDS  After three racing cards front runners have prevailed due to the shorter distances being run.   ANGLES  2022 leading trainer already on top to start 2023 meet and when jockey John Davila Jr. riding they combine to win at a healthy 33% together.   Early Daily Double play, 3-Cavaradossi over to horses 2-4-7 in the 2nd race.  FGL MEET: 2-1-0-0 ($3.00) through…

  Monday, May 8    RACE 7   BEST PLAY  2- Lockbox figures to be a tough one to get by in the 7th race. She ran well to be 2nd against a better rival on Opening Day.  RACE PACE  If Lockbox breaks well she should be with pace from her inside post.   TRENDS  Front runners continue to dominate at the abbreviated early season distances.   ANGLES  Has plenty of fitness competing throughout the Winter at Aqueduct.   Late Daily Double play.  2-Lockbox over to horses 2-6-8 in the last.  FGL MEET: 2-1-0-0 ($3.00) through 5/2         

Happy Derby Day!    This is a particularly good betting card highlighted by wide open editions of the Turf Classic and the Kentucky Derby.  All three Derby Also Eligibles have drawn in due to scratches in the main body. As we learned last year – don’t discount them. If they are live runners they can be dangerous from the outside.    Race 11- The Turf Classic – Grade I  One Mile and One Furlong on the Turf for Four Year Olds and Upward  Ocean Atlantique: Front running Mike Maker trainee tries graded stakes company in North America for the first time after two wins from three starts this year…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/6/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 7      Race overview:  A deep and competitive renewal of the G2 Turf Sprint, with countless win possibilities, though none have the upside and potential move forward like #4 BIG INVASION (7-2).       Pace:  It’s a G2 turf sprint so they’ll be flying early, and there are several that want to be a part of it, so wiring seems a bit implausible.       Trends:  They just haven’t run enough races over the new turf to get a true feel, though it undoubtedly should be a…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/5/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 10      Race overview:  As good a renewal of the G2 Edgewood for 3yo fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the turf as you’ll ever see, as there are upwards of 10 potential winners in the field-of-11, which means taking a stand gives you a huge leg up on the rest of the betting public.       Pace:  There’s not much here, so they’ll be bunched early and sprint off the far turn, where acceleration and racing luck will both come into play.      Trends:  They…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/4/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 7      Race overview:  A deep 50k MCL with more than a few possibilities, though none have the upside of MSW dropper #8 KIKI KRAZY (7-2)       Pace:  It’s a full field, so it should be hot and contested, which means a rating gear is preferred.      Trends:  It’s still early in the meet, but the main track has tilted towards off-the-pace types, as speed has struggled to hold, for the most part.       Best Play:  #8 KIKI KRAZY (7-2): MSW dropper has had…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/2/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 9      Race overview:  A wide-open MSW routing at 1 ¼ miles on the main track for 3up.       Pace:  Expect things to be a crawl early, as these maidens will be tested running the Kentucky Derby distance, which means they will be handled gently early on, in the hopes of saving something for later.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #7 GRAGGADOCIOUS (9-2): This is a pedigree race as much as anything, and this Gun Runner gelding has it in spades, as a…