Handicapping

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/9/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 6      Race overview:  A somewhat modest 35k N2L going 1m on the turf, with few who have solid recent grass form.       Pace:  There’s very little here on paper, so expected a bunch group, which will turn into a sprint off the far turn.      Trends:  You want to be close on this turf course, especially at what can be a very sharp 1, trip, and saving ground is never a bad thing either.       Best Play:  #2 BUILT DIFFERENT (4-1) (turf only):…

new  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/8/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 1      Race overview:  A wide open 5F MCL sprint on the turf, with several ways to go and little grass form to fall back on.       Pace:  There should be plenty here, as they love to motor in these turf sprints, and rarely does the speed fall apart.      Trends:  As hinted at, turf sprints are dominated by speed, especially going this short, so you better have the ability to be close early.       Best Play:  #8 CERTAIN (15-1) (turf or Tapeta):…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/7/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 3      Race overview:  A wide open MCL route on the Tapeta, with several ways to go.       Pace:  Expect a compact group, as there’s little confirmed speed, but several who want to be close early.      Trends:  The Tapeta routes have been playing to stalker/closers for months, as horses on or near the lead rarely last—regardless of how fast or slow they go.       Best Play:  #5 MATEO (4-1): Lightly raced runner has an experience edge routing and had a nightmare trip last…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/4/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 9      Race overview:  A relatively modest AOC on the turf, which means the class-dropping #10 WONKA (8-5) will be tough.       Pace:  There should be some pace down inside, as both #1 and #3 want to go, and the #4 should be pressing too.      Trends:  The answer is “N/A,” since this is the first week of turf racing since the spring, but with a newly renovated course, the feeling is you better be close early (which is usually the case here anyway).   …

Happy Cigar Mile Day!  There are four graded stakes at Aqueduct today headlined by the Cigar Mile which is the last of thirty-six Grade 1 races run in New York this year.  It honors the magnificent Cigar who won this race when it was known as the “NYRA Mile”.  The Remsen is part of the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” series and the top five finishers will be awarded Derby points (10-4-3-2-1).  This race is the first Derby prep to go nine furlongs. You will have to wait until the Withers in February for the next Derby prep to go as far.  Race 7 The Remsen – Grade…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/3/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 5      Race overview:  A deep group of 20k claimers routing on the turf, with several who have passed prior wining credentials.       Pace:  It doesn’t look overly heated on paper, so having tactical speed should be viewed at a premium.      Trends:  The answer is “N/A,” since this is the first week of turf racing since the spring, but with a newly renovated course, the feeling is you better be close early (which is usually the case here anyway).       Best Play:  #4…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/2/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 4      Race overview:  A solid 50k MCL for sprinters, with several in with a chance, though it’s #3 EASY AS A.B.C. (9-5) who looks primed on the MSW drop.       Pace:  There’s very little on paper, for a main track sprint, so being able to lay close early is a big plus here.      Trends:  You want to be close on the dirt, as it’s difficult to make up a lot of ground if you’re not within striking distance entering the far turn.   …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/1/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 4      Race overview:  A solid 16k MCL routing on the Tapeta, though it’s #3 LEOPARDI (9-5) that seems to hold all the aces.       Pace:  There’s not much on paper, so expect a bunched field early, which should turn into a sprint off the far turn.      Trends:  Tapeta routes consistently play to stalker/closers, with well over 70% of the races being won from off the pace, as speed rarely holds up front, no matter how slow they go.       Best Play:  #3…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/27/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 5      Race overview:  A full field of 30k N2L sprinters, with several who are in with winning chances, though #8 SONO GRATO (8-1) offers plenty of value off a troubled trip.       Pace:  It should be hot and contested, as several here want to motor early, which means a stalking gear seems imperative.      Trends:  Winners are continuing to come from everywhere, with no noticeable biases, both in terms of path and running style.       Best Play:  #8 SONO GRATO (8-1): Stalker will…

Happy Fall Highweight Day!  The Highweight dates to 1914 when the filly Comely won the inaugural running as a two year old competing against older colts.  Recent editions have seen hard-knocking fan favorites Stallwalkin’ Dude, Life in Shambles, Salutos Amigos, and Caixa Electronica take the top prize.     The Red Smith is the feature race today, and it marks the end of graded stakes turf racing in New York for 2022.  We won’t see another graded stakes turf race in New York for five months.     Race 8 – The Fall Highweight Handicap – Grade III  Six Furlongs on the Dirt for Three Year Olds and Upward  This is…