Handicapping

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/26/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 5      Race overview:  A full field of (at this point) very mediocre 2yo MSW runners going a very long 1 1/8 miles, which means speed and stamina—and pedigree—should all be considered.       Pace:  On paper there’s not much here, and you have to think many riders will be patient, as this is a demanding trip for a 2yo at this time of the year, and it all means #7 POINT PROVEN (5-1) should be loose and controlling up front.      Trends:  Winners are continuing…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/25/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 8      Race overview:  A pretty modest 50k claimer for the level, with several who enter with suspect form, which is not a worry for #2 HONEY RUN (5-2).       Pace:  There looks to be more than enough here, as several want to be involved early, which means no one should be able to clear.      Trends:  Winners are continuing to come from everywhere, with no noticeable biases, both in terms of path and running style.       Best Play:  #2 HONEY RUN (5-2): Dominant…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/24/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 11      Race overview:  A solid field for the G3 Cardinal going 1 1/8 miles on the turf, with G1 winner #5 Dalika (2-1) leading the way over several graded stakes quality runners.       Pace:  It looks hot and contested between the two favorites, as both #5 Dalika (2-1) and #6 Adventuring (9-5) want to be involved early and often, and could tangle, being drawn next to each other.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #7 SUNNY ONE (8-1) (turf only): Stalker/closer has run…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/23/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 4      Race overview:  A full field of 30k MCLers, with several different ways to go.       Pace:  It should be honest, as there are 12 entered, and several who are stretching out as well.      Trends:  Winners are continuing to come from everywhere, with no noticeable biases, both in terms of path and running style.       Best Play:  #11 GUIDED ARROW (5-1): Lightly raced runner moved way up in his first dirt start last time, with a ton of trouble to boot, so…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/20/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 2      Race overview:  A seemingly average 2yo MSW for restricted sale horses, which makes stiff open MSW dropper #8 MIDSUMMER SOIREE (5-2) look mighty tough.       Pace:  It should be honest, as the pick will be involved throughout, and there are some expected fast firsters entered too.      Trends:  The main track played on the fair side last week, as winners came from everywhere, though being down inside seemed preferred.       Best Play:  #8 MIDSUMMER SOIREE (5-2): Bargain 10k buy set the…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/19/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 1      Race overview:  A non-descript 15k MCL sprinting, with several who come in off duds, while #6 SUPE (5-1) woke way up on the dirt last time.       Pace:  It’s a full field sprinting on the main, so while it doesn’t look overly hot, it should be honest enough.      Trends:  The main track played on the fair side last week, as winners came from everywhere, though being down inside seemed preferred.       Best Play:  #6 SUPE (5-1): Lightly raced runner tried dirt…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/18/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 5      Race overview:  A weak 3up 20k claimer at 1 1/16 miles, with class-dropping #1 BALLINONABUDJET (5-2) seemingly holding all the aces.       Pace:  There’s very little entered on paper, so expect a bunched field throughout, with a sprint off the far turn.      Trends:  The main track played on the fair side last week, as winners came from everywhere, though being down inside seemed preferred.       Best Play:  #1 BALLINONABUDJET (5-2): Dropper has been facing tons better—while more than holding his own—drew…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/17/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 6      Race overview:  A decent 32k claimer sprinting on the main, with a few class risers in off good runs, and a few dropping off suspect ones.       Pace:  There’s not a ton here, which means #1 ASH FLAT (5-1) should be able to control from inside early, especially since he’s facing much easier this time.      Trends:  The main track played on the fair side last week, as winners came from everywhere, though being down inside seemed preferred.       Best Play:  #1…

    Date:  11/16/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 3      Race overview:  A decent group of local 25k claimers, but one that is vulnerable to a sharp newcomer, and GP invader #6 AIN’T WASTING TIME (4-1) fits the bill perfectly.       Pace:  There’s not a ton here, so having some tactical speed is key.      Trends:  The main track played on the fair side last week, as winners came from everywhere, though being down inside seemed preferred.       Best Play:  #6 AIN’T WASTING TIME (4-1): GP runners enters in strong form and looked good winning last time, drew perfectly, and…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/13/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 2      Race overview:  A very strong group of 20k claimers sprinting, with several who enter in very sharp recent form.       Pace:  It looks very honest, which suggests winning this on the front might be a bit too tough.      Trends:  N/A – Note that this week we will finally have a full week of racing to measure the main track by, as it’s been too hit-or-miss so far, with the BC at Keeneland in the middle.       Best Play:  #8 AGGRESSIVITY (4-1):…