Handicapping

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/15/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 5      Race overview:  A modest 8k N2L routing on the Tapeta, with very few who have shown winning credentials.       Pace:  Expect a tight pack, as there’s not a ton of true front-running speed entered, which means a stalking gear will come in handy.      Trends:  The Tapeta routes have trended towards stalker/closers, as speed has struggled holding—no matter how slow they go up front early.       Best Play:  #6 S. Silo (7-2): In-form runner, which is more than most here can say,…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/14/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 3      Race overview:  A modest bottom-level claimer with a false favorite (#1 Ensign Parker 2-1) down inside, and a class-dropping (dirt) newcomer who looks poised to wake up in #7 OLD TOWN ROAD (9-2).       Pace:  There’s plenty here to keep #1 Ensign Parker (2-1) occupied early, which should flatter the chances of #7 OLD TOWN ROAD (9-2) late.      Trends:  You need to be close sprinting on the main track, as coming from too far out if isn’t a recipe for success.   …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/11/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 5      Race overview:  A wide open 20k claimer routing on the turf.       Pace:  There’s enough here to suggest a stalking gear will come in handy.      Trends:  You want to be close on this turf course, especially at what can be a very sharp 1m trip, and saving ground is never a bad thing either.       Best Play:  #7 MIA AT MIDNIGHT (6-1) (turf only): Class dropper was facing much better at BAQ, has a local grass win, and lures Saez.   …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/10/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 3      Race overview:  A non-descript 16k MCL sprinting on the main, which means it’s there for the taking for #4 STEPHANIE MY LOVE (3-1) off the claim.       Pace:  It should be honest enough, as there’s some speed to the outside and a few firsters entered too.      Trends:  You need to be close sprinting on the main track, as often times these types of races get strung out entering the turn and you can’t make up ground.       Best Play:  #4 STEPHANIE…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/9/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 6      Race overview:  A somewhat modest 35k N2L going 1m on the turf, with few who have solid recent grass form.       Pace:  There’s very little here on paper, so expected a bunch group, which will turn into a sprint off the far turn.      Trends:  You want to be close on this turf course, especially at what can be a very sharp 1, trip, and saving ground is never a bad thing either.       Best Play:  #2 BUILT DIFFERENT (4-1) (turf only):…

new  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/8/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 1      Race overview:  A wide open 5F MCL sprint on the turf, with several ways to go and little grass form to fall back on.       Pace:  There should be plenty here, as they love to motor in these turf sprints, and rarely does the speed fall apart.      Trends:  As hinted at, turf sprints are dominated by speed, especially going this short, so you better have the ability to be close early.       Best Play:  #8 CERTAIN (15-1) (turf or Tapeta):…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/7/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 3      Race overview:  A wide open MCL route on the Tapeta, with several ways to go.       Pace:  Expect a compact group, as there’s little confirmed speed, but several who want to be close early.      Trends:  The Tapeta routes have been playing to stalker/closers for months, as horses on or near the lead rarely last—regardless of how fast or slow they go.       Best Play:  #5 MATEO (4-1): Lightly raced runner has an experience edge routing and had a nightmare trip last…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/4/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 9      Race overview:  A relatively modest AOC on the turf, which means the class-dropping #10 WONKA (8-5) will be tough.       Pace:  There should be some pace down inside, as both #1 and #3 want to go, and the #4 should be pressing too.      Trends:  The answer is “N/A,” since this is the first week of turf racing since the spring, but with a newly renovated course, the feeling is you better be close early (which is usually the case here anyway).   …

Happy Cigar Mile Day!  There are four graded stakes at Aqueduct today headlined by the Cigar Mile which is the last of thirty-six Grade 1 races run in New York this year.  It honors the magnificent Cigar who won this race when it was known as the “NYRA Mile”.  The Remsen is part of the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” series and the top five finishers will be awarded Derby points (10-4-3-2-1).  This race is the first Derby prep to go nine furlongs. You will have to wait until the Withers in February for the next Derby prep to go as far.  Race 7 The Remsen – Grade…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/3/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 5      Race overview:  A deep group of 20k claimers routing on the turf, with several who have passed prior wining credentials.       Pace:  It doesn’t look overly heated on paper, so having tactical speed should be viewed at a premium.      Trends:  The answer is “N/A,” since this is the first week of turf racing since the spring, but with a newly renovated course, the feeling is you better be close early (which is usually the case here anyway).       Best Play:  #4…