Handicapping

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/29/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  6       Race overview  A compact field of six in an MSW going a stamina-testing 1 ¼ miles.       Pace  Expect it to be a crawl early, as this is not a distance you’re going to see often on the main track, and several are no guarantee to see it out either.      Trends  It’s all dirt all the time at the meet, and the main track continues to play fair, as all running styles have had repeatedly won races.     …

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/28/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  1       Race overview  A solid 30k MCL for 3up at 6 ½ furlongs        Pace  It looks on the tepid side, as there aren’t many who want to motor early, so tactical speed seems essential.       Trends  It’s all dirt all the time at the meet, and the main track continues to play fair, as all running styles have had repeatedly won races.      Best Play  #6 GUN BARREL (3-1): MSW dropper looks spotted to score with apprentice son Erik…

Happy Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Day!  Nice card at the Big A today with four graded stakes headlined by the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. The wonderful seven year old mare, War Like Goddess, who has won the last two renditions of the Joe Hirsch is back today to defend her crown against the boys.    The Woodward comes up short as it will be scratched down to four with Mott indicating that Kay Army won’t run. Nonetheless it is a competitive group where the the case can be made for three of the four runners. Sadly, the Woodward is getting squeezed and I fear for the future…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/27/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  5       Race overview  A modest 20k N3L for 3upfm at 1 1/16 miles.       Pace  It looks on the tepid side, which suggests a bunched group that will sprint off the far turn.      Trends  It’s all dirt all the time at the meet, and the main track continues to play fair, as all running styles have had repeatedly won races.      Best Play  #6 MO SENSE (5-1): A bit of a bold play here, but this filly aired in the…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/26/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  7       Race overview  A seemingly wide-open N1X for 3up at the marathon distance (for the main track) of 1 ¼ miles.       Pace  Expect things to crawl early, as this is not a distance you see often, and several won’t be able to handle it, which suggests things will be extremely tepid up front.      Trends  It’s all dirt all the time at the meet, and the main track continues to play fair, as all running styles have had repeatedly won…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/25/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  6       Race overview  An overflow field of 3upfm 20k MCL’ers going 6 ½ furlongs.       Pace  There’s not a ton here, as more than a few want to come from the clouds, so at the very least, tactical speed seems essential.      Trends  It’s all dirt all the time at the meet, and the main track continues to play fair, as all running styles have had repeatedly won races.      Best Play  #8 DESPO’S DREAM (5-2): Class dropper didn’t like…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/22/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  3       Race overview  A meek 20k MCL for 3up at 6 ½ furlongs.       Pace  It looks honest, as there are a few who want to move early, though it doesn’t appear to be too overly heated either.      Trends  It’s all dirt all the time at the meet, and the main track was very fair last week, and even seemed to tilt a bit towards off-the-pace types.      Best Play  #4 STARSCAPE (5-2): MSW runner takes the biggest drop…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/21/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  5       Race overview  A seemingly very weak MSW for 2yos at 1-mile.       Pace  It should be honest enough, as there are several firsters, and many who are stretching out off sprints as well.      Trends  It’s all dirt all the time at the meet, and the main track was very fair last week, and even seemed to tilt a bit towards off-the-pace types.      Best Play  #9 SPEECHLESS (5-1): Brisset charge got beaten up and the some at the…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/20/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  5       Race overview  A very modest 16k N2L for 3upfm at 7Fs.       Pace  It looks hot and contested, as more than a few want to tangle early and often, which suggests a rating gear will come in mighty handy.      Trends  It’s all dirt all the time at the meet, and the main track was very fair last week, and even seemed to tilt a bit towards off-the-pace types.      Best Play  #6 MISS MAXIMUS (5-2): Saratoga 7F MCL…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/19/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  6       Race overview  A strong N1X for 3up at 1 1/16 miles.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as there a few who want to be involved early, including the two ML favorites (#10 and #12), who drew poorly and will need to hustle into the first turn.      Trends  It’s all dirt all the time at the meet, and the main track was very fair last week, and even seemed to tilt a bit towards off-the-pace types.      Best…