Handicapping

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/14/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  3       Race overview  A meek 12.5k claimer for 3up at 6 ½ furlongs.       Pace  It looks honest and contested, as there are more than a few who want to be involved early, which suggests—especially at a demanding distance—a stalking gear will come in handy.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #5 KANT BEAT THE ROCK (7-2): Stalker came off the layoff with a…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/13/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  6       Race overview  A solid 20k N2L for 3up at 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  There’s not much here, which means #8 TWIRLING TROILLET (6-1) should enjoy a tactical edge over a field he fits nicely with on paper.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #8 TWIRLING TROILLET (6-1): Potential pacesetter dueled and tired going 7Fs last time but shouldn’t have…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/10/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  3       Race overview  A competitive 16k N3L for 3upfm at 1-mile.       Pace  It looks on the slow side, which should flatter #3 CORKED FEE   (3-1), who may be able to clear off early.      Trends  The main track had a very fair feel to it last week, with winners coming from everywhere, and Sunday even seemed to tilt towards off-the-pace runners a bit.      Best Play  #3 CORKED FEE (3-1): Logical sort seems to have a race flow edge…

Happy Red Smith Day!  Strong card at the Big A today with three turf stakes races including two graded stakes.  It might be November, but our turf racing is still going strong in New York.    Trivia Question: Who is the Hill Prince Stakes named for?    Race 5 – The Hill Prince – Grade III  One Mile and One Furlong on the Turf for Three Year Olds  Bartlett: Once John Servis stretched this one out on dirt, he has been a different horse. He won N1X (93 Beyer) and N2X (94 Beyer) races on consecutive attempts and both races were identical he went right to the front help…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/9/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  1       Race overview  A solid restricted MSW for fm3up at 7 furlongs.       Pace  It looks on the tepid side, as there’s not much on paper, which means #5 VINO FRIZZANTE (7-2) could be able to control early.      Trends  The main track had a very fair feel to it last week, with winners coming from everywhere, and Sunday even seemed to tilt towards off-the-pace runners a bit.      Best Play  #5 VINO FRIZZANTE (7-2): Class dropper has been doing…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/8/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  3       Race overview  A full field but watered down 20k MCL for 2yos at 6Fs.       Pace  There’s 12 entered, so while not all have shown they want the front, you have to think things will be honest and bunched early on.      Trends  The main track had a very fair feel to it last week, with winners coming from everywhere, and Sunday even seemed to tilt towards off-the-pace runners a bit.      Best Play  #8 TUSCALOOSA (3-1): MSW dropper…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/7/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  7       Race overview  A full field of 2yos in a starter/optional claimer at 6 furlongs, in what looks like an above average field for this level.       Pace  It looks honest, and potentially crowded, as there are more than a few who want to be on, or just off the early lead.      Trends  The main track had a very fair feel to it last week, with winners coming from everywhere, and Sunday even seemed to tilt towards off-the-pace runners a…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/6/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  7       Race overview  A competitive 50k starter-allowance for 2yo fillies at 6Fs.       Pace  It should be honest, as more than a few have shown speed, or the desire to press the early pace.      Trends  The main track had a very fair feel to it last week, with winners coming from everywhere, and Sunday even seemed to tilt towards off-the-pace runners a bit.      Best Play  #1 AUTUMN RHYTHM (4-1): Sharp restricted MSW debut winner settled nicely before punching…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/3/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  3       Race overview  A very modest 16k N2L for fm3up at 7 furlongs on the main track.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as there’s speed from the inside (#3) and from the outside as well (#9).      Trends  The main track has alternated between fast and sloppy early on during the meet, which makes it hard to gauge if there are any preferred running styles or paths.      Best Play  #5 MOON FLEET (3-1): In-form runner (which is more…

Happy Breeders’ Cup Day!  Today is the big day. We have eight Grade 1s and many of these races will determine divisional championships for 2024. Both the Classic and the Turf are pretty wide open affairs where you can go five or six different directions.    Race 7 – Breeders’ Cup Turf– Grade I  One Mile and One Half on the Turf for Three Year Olds and Upward   Rousham Park: Long shot Japanese runner won four of six starts as a four year old but has not followed that success up as a five year old with no wins from three starts and didn’t show much in…