Handicapping

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/18/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  1       Race overview  A deep and competitive 16k claimer for 3up at 6Fs.       Pace  Pace makes the race and there’s a ton here, which suggests this could come apart in the lane and set up the stalker/closers.      Trends  It’s all dirt all the time at the meet, and the main track was very fair last week, and even seemed to tilt a bit towards off-the-pace types.      Best Play  #5 BURNINHUNKOFLOVE (4-1): Invader has been in Texas and…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/15/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  4       Race overview  A deep and competitive 12.5k claimer for 3up at 6Fs.       Pace  It looks honest, as there is some zip from the inside, but at this trip, you need to be close.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #2 UPSTRIKER (7-2): Versatile sort goes off-the-claim for Vanden Berg (14%), can be placed anywhere, takes a modest rise off an Ellis win for 10k, and has two local scares, so this looks like a shrewd new acquisition.    …

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/14/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  10       Race overview  A stellar renewal of the G3 Iroquois for 2yos at 1-mile on the main.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as several want to be close early, while stretching out as well.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #10 JONATHAN’S WAY (9-2): Stunning Saratoga debut winner didn’t break, lagged, then passed them all like they were tied to a pole, is bred to relish the added ground, and should only be better off that unveiling.     …

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/13/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  8       Race overview  A robust but seemingly average field of MSW 2yofs going 6Fs.       Pace  You’d think it would be hot and contested, as there are a slew of firsters entered, with a few having worked quick in the morning.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #3 FIRST CLASS LADY (3-1): Asmussen filly was favored in her Spa bow, which is noteworthy, and then dueled and tired, but she doesn’t meet much here (on paper), and her expected main…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/12/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  6       Race overview  A very weak (on paper) AOC for 2yofs going 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as there are more than a few who want to be involved and/or close early on.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #6 ECHO SOUND (7-2): Well-drawn filly won on debut at Ellis for Arnold, which is a story in and of itself, as the barn never cranks them, and off that, against a meek group like…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/8/24      Featured track  Ky Downs     Race number  6       Race overview  An exceptionally weak MSW for 2yo fillies at 1-mile.       Pace  There’s not much to go on on paper, as few have shown speed, and there are a few firsters as well, but at a demanding trip, things figure to be slow early, which should turn into a sprint late.      Trends  The turf has been relatively speedy during the early days of the meet, though obviously on an undulating course like this, it’s as much about a…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/7/24      Featured track  Ky Downs      Race number  4       Race overview  A seemingly very modest MSW for 2yos at 1-mile.       Pace  On paper there’s really none here, so expect a tight group and a sprint off the far turn, and into the long stretch.      Trends  The turf has been relatively speedy during the early days of the meet, though obviously on an undulating course like this, it’s as much about a horse handling the surface than anything else.      Best Play  #9 COURAGEOUS CLAY (3-1): Tactical…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/2/24      Featured track  Saratoga       Race number  6       Race overview  A seemingly modest 2yo NYB MSW at 7Fs.       Pace  It figures to be honest, as there are a slew of first-time starters entered, many of which could be a bit keyed up out of the gate.       Trends  The main track definitely had a more tempered, fair feel to it this week, as horses were coming from everywhere, including closers on the outside/in the middle of the track.      Best Play  #3 OMAHA PISTOL (3-1): Englehart firster…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/1/24      Featured track  Saratoga       Race number  3       Race overview  An deep and competitive N1X for 3up at 5 ½ Fs on the Mellon turf.       Pace  It’s a turf sprint, so things should be hot and contested up front, as several entered want to be involved early.      Trends  There’s really nothing too conclusive to go on, but a firm, fast turf course, tactical speed is never a bad thing.      Best Play  #6 DETERMINED EFFORT (7-2) (turf only): Been waiting for this one to come back…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  8/31/24      Featured track  Saratoga       Race number  8       Race overview  A potentially loaded MSW for 2yos at 7Fs on the main track.       Pace  It figures to be hot and contested, as there are a slew of well-bred first-time starters coming from top barns, who have all worked well—and several who have worked fast—in the morning.      Trends  A fast main track on Saturday and Sunday played fair, though it’s definitely something to monitor early in Closing Week.      Best Play  #3 TAP INTO THIS (3-1): CD invader…