Handicapping

Play of the Day Race Date April 01, 2021 Track Churchill Downs Race 10 Overview A sterling renewal of the G1 Churchill Downs, in terms of betting, as there are several different ways you can go in a race that is there for the taking. Pace It should be honest, but not overly fast or supersonic, which you can sometimes get in this race, which says you want tactical speed, at the very least. Trends The main track has been VERY speedy during the week, regardless of the surface condition, and it’s been very tough to pass, so make sure to keep that in mind, especially since it…

Play of the Day Race Date April 30, 2021 Track Churchill Downs Race 9 Overview A deep renewal of the G2 Eight Belles, with plenty of speed, and a potentially vulnerable favorite (#10 Dayoutoftheoffice) who hasn’t been out since November. Pace It looks extremely fast, as several want to be involved early, which could tilt this to a stalker/closer. Trends The main track has been VERY speedy during the week, regardless of the surface condition, and it’s been very tough to pass, so make sure to keep that in mind, especially since it could be souped up and fast and speedy on a big race day. Best Bet…

Play of the Day Race Date April 29, 2021 Track Churchill Downs Race 7 Overview A competitive 40k claimer, though one where the horse to beat—#3 LUCK OF THE DRAW (5-2)—seems to have a decided pace edge. Pace It looks like #3 LUCK OF THE DRAW (5-2) is the controlling speed, and over a track that could be wet, that gives him a big advantage. Trends N/A Best Bet LUCK OF THE DRAW Number 3 Morning Line (5-2) Best Bet Overview #3 LUCK OF THE DRAW (5-2): In-form runner is 3-2-1-0 of late and looks like the one to catch, for a Shirer barn having a very good…

Play of the Day Race Date April 28, 2021 Track Churchill Downs Race 5 Overview A strong AOC with several different ways to go, in a race where value seemingly abounds. Pace It looks like it should be honest and contested, as more than a few want to be involved early. Trends N/A Best Bet LITTLE MENACE Number 2 Morning Line (4-1) Best Bet Overview #2 LITTLE MENACE (4-1): Class dropper has been facing much better going a furlong sorter on dirt, goes turf-to-dirt and two turns to one, and should love all the pace up front he gets to track. Picks & Plays WP bet and a…

Play of the Day Race Date April 24, 2021 Track Churchill Downs Race 5 Overview A very weak 20k MCL with more than a few who are very uninspiring. Pace There’s not a lot here, and with #2 GRAND DESIGN (3-1) stretching out off an MSW sprint, and getting Geroux, the mission in an obvious one. Trends N/A Best Bet GRAND DESIGN Number 2 Morning Line (3-1) Best Bet Overview #2 GRAND DESIGN (3-1): Potential Lone F catches a group without a lot of early speed and gets Geroux, who will send, and the stiff drop from the MSW ranks will only help. Picks & Plays Aggressive WP…

Play of the Day Race Date April 23, 2021 Track Keeneland Race 7 Overview A strong N2X on the turf with several winning candidates in a heat that could turn out to be a key race. Pace There’s no clear-cut front runner, so expect a slow-paced race early and one that turns into a sprint late. Trends The turf tends to favor stalkers a bit more than front runners, though with rain on Wednesday it’s a little tough to gauge. Best Bet OCEAN ATLANTIQUE Number 5 Morning Line (2-1) Best Bet Overview #5 OCEAN ATLANTIQUE (2-1) (turf only): Basically ran in place in a US debut you know…

Play of the Day Race Date April 22, 2021 Track Keeneland Race 5 Overview A compact 20k claimer with plenty of speed. Pace As mentioned, it looks hot, as three of the five entered want to motor early on. Trends I’m going against the track a bit, as speed has done very well during the meet, but this one has the look of a race begging to fall apart. Best Bet ERV’S WENCH Number 1 Morning Line (5-2) Best Bet Overview #1 ERV’S WENCH (5-2): Stalker ran well against better at GP and should love all the speed she gets to settle off of here. Picks & Plays…

Play of the Day Race Date April 21, 2021 Track Keeneland Race 5 Overview A non-descript MSW for 3yos that looks there for the taking if someone should produce a breakthrough run. Pace It should be honest, as there are several lightly-raced runners, several who are stretching out and seeing a clubhouse turn for the first time as well. Trends It’s tough to see any visible trends on the turf, as they usually just card a few a day (during the week), but for the most part the course can be demanding, at least in routes, and therefore I tend to side with stalker/closers. Best Bet SNOW HOUSE…

Play of the Day Race Date April 18, 2021 Track Keeneland Race 5 Overview A very modest 50k starter-allowance that looks ripe for a fresh new face, and #5 MY CANDY GIRL (9-2) clearly fits the bill. Pace It looks strong, as several have shown early initiative and a want to be on or near the early lead. Trends It’s tough to see any visible trends on the turf, as they usually just card a few a day (during the week), but for the most part the course can be demanding, at least in routes, and therefore I tend to side with stalker/closers. Best Bet MY CANDY GIRL…

Play of the Day Race Date April 17, 2021 Track Keeneland Race 5 Overview A deep and competitive starter-allowance, though one that could be ripe for a fresh new face. Pace It looks solid enough, as there are more than a few that have shown speed and want to be close to the lead early. Trends It’s tough to see any visible trends on the turf, as they usually just card a few a day (during the week), but for the most part the course can be demanding, at least in routes, and therefore I tend to side with stalker/closers. Best Bet SUMMER PALACE Number 4 Morning Line…