Handicapping Articles

    Date  11/21/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  3       Race overview  A full field of 12, but an extremely weak—even for this level—20k MCL for 2yos at 1 1/16 miles.       Pace  There’s not a ton on paper, as several of these have shown little to no speed at all, which suggests things will be a crawl early on.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #1 HAUNTED FLAME (4-1): MSW dropper has chased and tired in two starts, one on…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/20/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  7       Race overview  A relatively modest 25k claimer for 3up at 6 ½ furlongs.       Pace  It seems honest enough, as there are a few on the inside who want to show early foot, along with the well-drawn pace presser  #7 BRITERDAYZAHEAD (5-2).      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #7 BRITERDAYZAHEAD (5-2): In-form runner is looking for three straight, as he goes off-the-claim…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/17/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  8       Race overview  A solid AOC for 3up at 6 1’2 furlongs on the main track.       Pace  It looks a bit on the mild side, as there aren’t too many who want to be close, and/or vie for the lead.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #6 KAVOD (9-5): Classy veteran got untracked with a big—and fast—2nd last time, drew perfectly for…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/16/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  9       Race overview  A predictably deep and competitive Claiming Crown Sprint for 3up at 7 furlongs on the main track.       Pace  It sure looks honest enough, as there are more than a few in here who want to be close and involved early.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #8 GLOBAL SENSATION (2-1): Raging hot runner is a head away from a…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/15/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  6       Race overview  A seemingly modest MSW for 2yofs at 5 furlongs.       Pace  There are a slew of firsters who have worked very fast, in addition to some experienced runners who have shown speed too, so the pace, especially at this trip, looks extremely hot and contested.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #7 DESERT ADVENTURE (9-2): Godolphin homebred has a huge…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/14/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  3       Race overview  A meek 12.5k claimer for 3up at 6 ½ furlongs.       Pace  It looks honest and contested, as there are more than a few who want to be involved early, which suggests—especially at a demanding distance—a stalking gear will come in handy.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #5 KANT BEAT THE ROCK (7-2): Stalker came off the layoff with a…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/13/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  6       Race overview  A solid 20k N2L for 3up at 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  There’s not much here, which means #8 TWIRLING TROILLET (6-1) should enjoy a tactical edge over a field he fits nicely with on paper.      Trends  The main track continues to play fair, with winners coming from everywhere, including all running paths as well.      Best Play  #8 TWIRLING TROILLET (6-1): Potential pacesetter dueled and tired going 7Fs last time but shouldn’t have…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/10/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  3       Race overview  A competitive 16k N3L for 3upfm at 1-mile.       Pace  It looks on the slow side, which should flatter #3 CORKED FEE   (3-1), who may be able to clear off early.      Trends  The main track had a very fair feel to it last week, with winners coming from everywhere, and Sunday even seemed to tilt towards off-the-pace runners a bit.      Best Play  #3 CORKED FEE (3-1): Logical sort seems to have a race flow edge…

Happy Red Smith Day!  Strong card at the Big A today with three turf stakes races including two graded stakes.  It might be November, but our turf racing is still going strong in New York.    Trivia Question: Who is the Hill Prince Stakes named for?    Race 5 – The Hill Prince – Grade III  One Mile and One Furlong on the Turf for Three Year Olds  Bartlett: Once John Servis stretched this one out on dirt, he has been a different horse. He won N1X (93 Beyer) and N2X (94 Beyer) races on consecutive attempts and both races were identical he went right to the front help…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/9/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  1       Race overview  A solid restricted MSW for fm3up at 7 furlongs.       Pace  It looks on the tepid side, as there’s not much on paper, which means #5 VINO FRIZZANTE (7-2) could be able to control early.      Trends  The main track had a very fair feel to it last week, with winners coming from everywhere, and Sunday even seemed to tilt towards off-the-pace runners a bit.      Best Play  #5 VINO FRIZZANTE (7-2): Class dropper has been doing…