Handicapping Articles

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/8/25      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  10       Race overview  A relatively modest and compact renewal of the G1 Blue Grass for 3yos at 1 1/8 miles.       Pace  It looks like it could be honest, if not on the hot side, as there are more than a few who want to be involved, though with the Oritz brothers riding a pair of them (#1 River Thames and #4 Owen Almighty), it’s anyone’s guess as to how it actually unfolds early, though we do know #5 East Avenue will…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/9/25      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  7       Race overview  A full field of 3yos in a relatively modest AOC at 1 1/16 miles, which goes to the short stretch/finish line.       Pace  It looks hot and contested, as more than a few want to motor early, which means things could really get hot because of this tricky trip.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #10 SKATE AWAY (4-1): Pletcher charge looked like a new horse stretching out to 1 1/8 miles to break his maiden, has…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau Date 4/7/25 Featured track Keeneland Race number 6 Race overview A predictably deep and competitive N2X for 4up at 1-mile on turf. Pace It looks honest enough, as more than a few want to be close and/or on the lead and involved throughout. Trends Obviously there’s nothing to go by yet, but with the historic rains that the course has received, it still figures on the soft side, which could play more to the stalkers/closers, instead of the speeds. Best Play #6 OSCAR SEASON (6-1) (turf only): Class riser was tons the best in his GP win, as he had trouble…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/6/25      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  7       Race overview  A relatively modest MSW for 3yofs at 1 1/16 (over a short stretch/finish line) miles on the main track.       Pace  It looks honest enough, especially as there’s some speed to the outside, which will need to get key position early.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #2 SALTED (3-1): Beautifully-bred runner finally gets two turns, which she’s bred top and bottom for, and this post is perfect as well with the short stretch/finish line, and note how improved…

Happy Wood Memorial Day!  The Big A takes the stage with the 100th running of Wood Memorial. This is the first big card on the New York racing calendar which also features the Grade II Carter, and a couple Grade IIIs – the Gazelle for three year old filles, and the Distaff for older fillies and mares.     Trivia question: Where was the Wood Memorial run before it was held at Aqueduct?  Race 10 – The Carter Handicap  – Grade II  Seven Furlongs on the Dirt for Four Year Olds and Upward  Crazy Mason: Won two in a row to start his four year old season defeating N1X and…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/30/25      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  11       Race overview  An extremely deep and competitive 16k handicap for 4up at 1 1/8 miles on Tapeta.       Pace  There’s plenty here, as more than a few want to be involved early and often, which suggests this will turn to the stalker/closers late, especially at this seldom used but demanding distance.      Trends  Stalkers have a better go of it routing on Tapeta, as it’s tough to last up front over what can be a demanding trip going two…

Happy Florida Derby Day!  The Florida Derby card does not disappoint with five very playable graded stakes races along with five ungraded stakes that features the return of White Abarrio in the Ghostzapper.  The Florida Derby has an interesting field with the two ML favorites on the far outside in posts 9 and 10 which historically have tough to win from – those posts are 3/54 going nine furlongs over the past 10 years. The run up in nine furlong races has been recently increased from 70 feet to 123 feet (an increase of 54 feet) so there is some more space to gain position, but it’s still…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/29/25      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  10       Race overview  A deep and competitive renewal of the Sanibel Island for3yofs at   7 ½ furlongs on the turf.       Pace  It looks like there’s plenty here, which suggest a staking gear will come in handy off the far turn.      Trends  Speed has been lethal on the turf, but with so much here (on paper), you have to think no one is lasting up front.      Best Play  #3 LOVE CERVERE (5-2) (turf only): Stalker was a huge…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/28/25      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  7       Race overview  A competitive 8k N3L for 4upfm at 1 1/16 miles on Tapeta.       Pace  There’s not much here, so expect a bunched group early that will sprint off the far turn.      Trends  Stalkers have a better go of it routing on Tapeta, as it’s tough to last up front over what can be a demanding trip going two turns.      Best Play  #4 LADY MONIQUE (5-2): Stalker was 3rd against better in her last start on…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  3/27/25      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  3       Race overview  A competitive 17.5k claimer for 3yos at 1 1/16 miles on Tapeta.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as there’s speed to the outside (#5), along with a few who want to be close early (#1 and #6).      Trends  Stalkers have a better go of it routing on Tapeta, as it’s tough to last up front over what can be a demanding trip going two turns.      Best Play  #4 IL ALCHEMYSTA (2-1): Stalker exits a…