Handicapping Articles

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/1/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  4       Race overview  A weak but full field MSW for fms going 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  There’s very little here, especially with 12 of them lining up, so expect things to be tempered early, which means tactical speed is at a premium.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not.      Best Play  #3…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/31/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  3       Race overview  A deep and competitive 50k N2L for 3upfm at 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as there are more than a few who want to be close to the front early, though there aren’t any pure burners signed on either.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not.     …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/30/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  3       Race overview  A deep and competitive 32k claimer for 4up going 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  Pace makes the race and there’s plenty of it here, especially on the outside and from some key contenders too, so there’s a chance this falls apart in the lane.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not. …

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/27/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  3       Race overview  A seemingly weak restricted MSW for 2yo fillies going 5Fs on the main track.       Pace  It’s a full field sprinting, so things should be moving up front.      Trends  The main track seemed to play a bit forward last week, though nothing too out of the ordinary.      Best Play  #8 KISS CAM (3-1): Open MSW dropper also goes to Sweezey, who has been having a banner year, while routinely moving new horses up, and after…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/26/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  5       Race overview  A deep and competitive 10k MCL for 3up going 6 ½ furlongs on the main track.       Pace  For a full field in a dirt sprint, there doesn’t appear too much, at least on paper, so tactical speed seems a premium.      Trends  The main track seemed to play a bit forward last week, though nothing too out of the ordinary.      Best Play  #4 REMEMBER THE FEAR (5-1): MSW dropper and returnee hasn’t been out since…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/25/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  3       Race overview  A solid restricted MSW for 3yofs going 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  There’s plenty here in this field-of-10, as more than a few want to be involved early and often.      Trends  The main track seemed to play a bit forward last week, though nothing too out of the ordinary.      Best Play  #2 MO FOR US (5-2): Class dropper exits a very strong 2nd against and open field of MSW runners at OP, so…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/24/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  4       Race overview  A solid 30k MCL for 3upfm going 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  There’s very little here, so expect a bunched group throughout, and a sprint off the far turn.      Trends  The main track seemed to play a bit forward last week, though nothing too out of the ordinary.      Best Play  #6 MISS HARMONIC (3-1): Amoss claim drops in class and gets a big trainer switch, plus runs at a more proper…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/23/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  1       Race overview  A competitive 50k N2L for 3upfm going 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  There’s not a lot here, and these one-turn mile races can get strung out a bit, so they usually play to speed, as it’s tough to make up ground when you get to the far turn.      Trends  The main track seemed to play a bit forward last week, though nothing too out of the ordinary.      Best Play  #3 MITOLE’S LEGACY (4-1): Pace…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/19/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  8       Race overview  A deep and competitive AOC for 3upfm going 1-mile on the turf.       Pace  There’s seemingly plenty here, as a few on the inside want to go, s well as a few from the outside, so a stalking gear seems imperative.       Trends  N/A      Best Play  #3 JUSTIFIABLE BELLE (10-1) (turf only): Stalker came back from a long layoff to win a N1X in style, has the right running style to sit the trip here, and…

Happy Preakness Day!  This is a nice Preakness field headlined by Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan.  The scratch of Muth clarifies the race flow and sets up Imagination as the likely early pace. The question is whether he will get an easy uncontested lead.  The other impact of the Muth scratch is to ensure that Mystik Dan will be a heavy favorite, and therefore an underlay in my view.  Trivia Question: The Dinner Party Stakes was first run in 1870 during Pimlico’s first meet. Who won that first rendition of The Dinner Party?  Race 12 The Dinner Party – Grade III  One Mile and One Furlong on the…