Handicapping Articles

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/19/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  8       Race overview  A very modest N1X for 4up going 1 1/16 miles to the short stretch finish line on the main track.       Pace  There’s not much here, which should help those who want to be close early, like #2 HURRY HURRY (10-1), while hurting those who don’t, like #3 Dreamlike (4-5).      Trends  The main track continues to be speedy and play to the inside, and at this trip, with the short stretch and finish line, you have to be close…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/18/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  4       Race overview  A competitive 50k N2L for 3up going 1 1/16 miles to the short stretch finish line on the main track.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as there are more than a few who want to be involved early.      Trends  The main track continues to be speedy and play to the inside, and at this trip, with the short stretch and finish line, you have to be close early, as horses just don’t make up a lot of ground…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/17/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  3       Race overview  An extremely weak MSW for 3up f/ms going to the short stretch finish at 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  There’s not a lot here, which means this should be a bunched group that will sprint off the far turn.      Trends  The main track continues to be speedy and play to the inside, and at this trip, with the short stretch and finish line, you have to be close early, as horses just don’t make…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/14/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  1       Race overview  A modest 20k MCL for f/m 3up at 7Fs on the main track.       Pace  There’s no real speed here, which suggests a compact group and a sprint off the far turn.      Trends  The main track has been speedy and inside, there’s no two ways around it at this point, so you need to be close early.        Best Play  #6 LA PICASITA (3-1): GP invader was a good 2nd to a runoff winner last time against much…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/13/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  10       Race overview  A modest renewal of the G3 Lexington for 3yos at the short stretch/finish line of 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  There’s no real speed here, which should allow #5 Hades (7-2)—provided he gets off to an alert beginning this time—to control things from the start.      Trends  The main track was speedy and inside Opening Weekend, as very few horses came from too far off the pace, and at this short stretch/finish line, it’s next to…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/12/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  3       Race overview  A deep and competitive AOC for 4up going 1 1/8 miles on the mian.       Pace  There’s no real speed here, which suggests a bunched group throughout, and a sprint off the fat turn.      Trends  The main track was speedy and inside Opening Weekend, as very few horses came from too far off the pace.        Best Play  #2 THE PRINCE’S SPUR (5-2): Bauer charge goes for a barn that was waiting in the weeds a bit this…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/11/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  8       Race overview  A stakes-caliber N3X for 4up going 1 1/8 miles on the turf.       Pace  There’s very little signed on, which means you can expect a bunched group that will sprint off the far turn.      Trends  N/A        Best Play  #9 CHASING THE CROWN (5-1): In-form runner has a big edge here, in that he’s been running right along this year and wants this trip, whereas some of his main rivals are off layoffs while (likely) prepping for farther…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                      Date  4/10/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  7       Race overview  A deep and competitive AOC for 3yos going to the short stretch finish line at 1 1/16 miles.       Pace  There’s no real speed here, which means the comebacking   #5 ROCKETEER (7-2) could shake loose early, over a distance/layout that plays to this kind.      Trends  The main track was speedy and inside Opening Weekend, as very few horses came from too far off the pace, and at this short stretch/finish line trip, it can be that much more potent.    …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/7/24     Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  9       Race overview  An extremely weak N1X for 4up fms going 1-mile on the turf.       Pace  It looks a bit on the modest side, as there are no burners, and only a few who want to be close early on.      Trends  They don’t run a lot of turf races at Keeneland, so it’s tough to really get much of a gauge, but on the whole it’s a far turf course.        Best Play  #8 CADENCIA (3-1) (turf only): Stretchout sprinter…

Happy Wood Memorial Day!  Today we get our first big race day of the year in New York with four graded stakes headlined by the Carter Handicap and the Wood Memorial. It’s a nice full field of thirteen in the Wood.  Trivia question: Who is the Carter Handicap named for?  Race 4 – The Carter Handicap  – Grade II  Seven Furlongs on the Dirt for Four Year Olds and Upward  Castle Chaos: Was very good two back in the Fred Hooper where he was wide the whole way and just missed (97 Beyer). Tired in the slop last out in the Stymie. Inside draw should help to establish…