Handicapping Articles

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/18/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  4      Race overview  A seemingly competitive 20k MCL for 3up at 6 ½ Fs on the main.       Pace  There’s not a lot of true sprint speed signed on, which means if #8 CHITWOOD (9-2) breaks running this time, he can clear off early.      Trends  The main track played very fair last week, with winners coming from everywhere, and there were no apparent path biases either.       Best Play  #8 CHITWOOD (9-2): The expected speed didn’t break last time, then…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/17/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  4      Race overview  A competitive 12.5k claimer for 3up going 7Fs on the main.       Pace  There’s not any true sprint/one-turn speed, which could allow #7 POPULIST (3-1) set the pace and potentially control things early.      Trends  The main track played very fair last week, with winners coming from everywhere, and there were no apparent path biases either.       Best Play  #7 POPULIST (3-1): Class dropper was in against tougher at Kee for 16k, while going two turns as well,…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/16/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  8      Race overview  A somewhat modest AOC for fillies & mares at 5 ½ Fs on the turf.       Pace  It’s a turf sprint and a full field, though things don’t look overly heated up front, as there’s very few true burners entered.      Trends  N/A       Best Play  #6 LADY GOLDSTART (5-2): Versatile miss can be on the lead if no one goes or settle if they fly, goes off the Maker claim (20%), and basically any of…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/15/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  4      Race overview  A very weak 50k MCL for 2yofs going 6 furlongs on the main.       Pace  There’s little to none here, save #1 WAMPUS KITTEN (3-1), who looks destined to be a Lone F after chasing against better on debut.      Trends  The main track played very fair last week, with winners coming from everywhere, and there were no apparent path biases either.       Best Play  #1 WAMPUS KITTEN (3-1): Class dropper was in against much tough when she…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/12/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  3      Race overview  A modest restricted MSW for 2yofs going 7Fs on the main.       Pace  There’s little to none on paper, so expect a bunched group early.      Trends  The main track has been forward for the majority of the meet, with speed and tactical speed playing well.       Best Play  #4 NAUGHTY MISS (5-1): Experienced filly really improved last time and now cuts back from a 1m run, should be closer early on, and just doesn’t meet anyone…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/11/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  7      Race overview  A solid N1X sprinting 6Fs on the main, with several talented up and comers.       Pace  It should be honest, as #2 Tunisian Spring (8-5) wants to go early, and #5 EASY ACTION (2-1) is drawn perfectly to his outside.      Trends  The main track has been forward for the majority of the meet, with speed and tactical speed playing well.       Best Play  #5 EASY ACTION (2-1): Pace presser drew perfectly for his style, and can…

Hapy Red Smith Day!  Today we have two graded stakes on the turf at the Big A, both with big competitive fields. The Pebbles has some nice up and coming three year old filly turf milers, and the Red Smith is oversubscribed with a number of salty veterans.    Trivia Question:  Who was Red Smith?  Race 6 – The Pebbles – Grade III  One Mile on the Turf for Three Year Old Fillies  Implicated: Started brightly last year breaking her maiden and wining the overnight Chelsea Flower Stakes with a 74 Beyer. Came back last month off a year layoff in N2X company for Chad Brown and she tired…