Handicapping Articles

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/1/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  7      Race overview  A seemingly solid MSW for 2yos going 1-mile on the main.       Pace  It should be honest, as there are a few first-time starters from ace connections that figure to show speed, and some experienced runners who will as well.      Trends  The main track really seemed to tilt towards stalker/closers over the weekend, which is worth keeping an eye on as they come back for another five-day race week.        Best Play  #5 STRONGHOLD (4-1): Impressive runner…

Note: According to a NYRA press release, “The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) has moved Saturday’s 11-race card at Aqueduct Racetrack to Sunday and pushed Sunday’s 10-race program to Wednesday due to torrential rainfall causing widespread flooding and hazardous conditions in the New York metropolitan area.” Happy Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Day!  We have four graded stakes at Aqueduct headlined by the Grade I Joe Hirsch Turf Classic along with three Grade IIs; the Woodward, the Vosburgh, and the Gallant Bloom. Plan for off going as it appears the NYC metro area will get several inches of rain Friday into Saturday.  Trivia Question: Only two fillies have…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/30/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  3      Race overview  A strong 50k claimer for 3up going 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  It doesn’t look overly heated, as there’s not a lot of true confirmed speed, so tactical speed, at the very least, should be preferred.       Trends  The main track really seemed to tilt towards stalker/closers over the weekend, which is worth keeping an eye on as they come back for another five-day race week.        Best Play  #3 ROYAL ACT (4-1): Class…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/29/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  5      Race overview  A solid 40k claimer for 3up going 6Fs on the main track.        Pace  It looks hot and contested between #6 Tee Burns (8-1) and #9 Tape to Tape (5-2), which should set it up for presser/stalker #2 UPSTRIKER (2-1).      Trends  The main track really seemed to tilt towards stalker/closers over the weekend, which is worth keeping an eye on as they come back for another five-day race week.        Best Play  #2 UPSTRIKER (2-1): Rice claim…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadea u Date: 9/28/2023 Featured Track/Race: Churchill Downs – Race 3   Race overview: A non-descript 32k claimer for f/ms going 1 1/16 miles on the main.   Pace: There’s none here, which means #2 VITAEMI (3-1) should be able to control things on the stretchout after a paid of Saratoga sprints. Trends: The main track has predominantly fair for the meet, though over the weekend it did tilt slightly towards off-the-pace runners.   Best Play: #2 VITAEMI (3-1): Expected Lone F dueled and tired sprinting twice at Saratoga against solid groups, confidently rises in class here, and shouldn’t have to work…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadea u                        Date:  9/27/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 5      Race overview:  A predictably deep and competitive 10k starter-allowance for 3up going 1 1/16 miles on the main.       Pace:  It looks hot and contested, as there are several here who want to be involved early and often, which says this could fall apart late.      Trends:  The main track has predominantly fair for the meet, though over the weekend it did tilt slightly towards off-the-pace runners.       Best Play:  #4 Tiger Moon (3-1): Del Park invader stalked and aired for…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  9/24/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 7      Race overview:  An extremely weak 20k N3L for f/ms going 6 ½ Fs on the main.       Pace:  There’s not much here at all, so you better be close early.      Trends:  There’s been just four racing days, but overall, the main track has been on the fair side, with winners able to come from everywhere.       Best Play:  #1 Sister Kisses (2-1): Hawthorne invader looks spotted to score in this realistic spot off the Rosin claim (20%) after going 2-for-2 to…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  9/23/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 8      Race overview:  A solid renewal of the 300k Harrods Creek for 3yos going 7Fs on the main.       Pace:  There’s plenty of it to the outside, so things should be honest early.      Trends:  There’s been just four racing days, but overall, the main track has been on the fair side, with winners able to come from everywhere.       Best Play:  #3 Loyal Company (3-1): Godolphin homebred stepped up and ran well in the Ellis Park Derby over the funky 1-mile trip,…