Handicapping Articles

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  9/14/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 6      Race overview:  A solid 2yof AOC going 6 ½ furlongs on the main track.       Pace:  It looks hot and contested, as many of these lightly-raced fillies zipped on or just off the lead to break their maiden, which means this could melt down in the lane, especially at this tricky distance.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #6 Raining Sugar (8-1): Stalker was visually impressive breaking her maiden at 5 ½ furlongs on debut at Ellis, and that running style will…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  9/13/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Kentucky Downs – Race 1      Race overview:  A seemingly meek MSW for 2yo fillies going 6 ½ furlongs.       Pace:  There are a slew of first-time starters entered, and the sketchy ML favorite #4 Ocean Mermaid (5-2) is fast as well, so things should be heated up front.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #7 Movin’ On Up (7-2): Stalker was a good 2nd on debut for Walsh, who never cranks them and likely had this spot in mind all along, so with an expected big move…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  9/9/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Kentucky Downs – Race 10      Race overview:  A predictably deep and competitive renewal of the G2 Turf Sprint at 6 furlongs.       Pace:  It looks honest enough but not overly heated, though over this funky course, pace can be a bit tricky, and somewhat overrated too.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #12 Dr Zempf (6-1): Lightly-raced runner enters fresh for Brown, after a troubled trip when cutting back in the G1 Jaipur, his first U.S. one-turn start, and with all his foundation, this trip should be…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  9/7/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Kentucky Downs – Race 7      Race overview:  A seemingly iffy MSW for f/m’s going a marathon 1 5/16ths miles.       Pace:  Expect a crawl early and a sprint late, as this looks like a trip that will stretch a lot of rubber bands mighty thin.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #4 Lady Claypoole (3-1): Irish-bred ran well in her U.S. debut and first for Maker at Colonial when 3rd, now gets Lasix and blinkers, is bred to love the trip, and goes second-off the break for…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  9/4/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Saratoga – Race 9      Race overview:  A very meek MSW for 3up sprinting 5 ½ Fs on the Mellon Turf.       Pace:  There’s doesn’t seem to be an abundance (for a turf sprint), so you will want to be close early, which flatters #3 AMERICAN KNOW HOW (5-2), who can be on or just off the early lead.      Trends:  They just haven’t run enough on the turf, though the firmer course of late seemingly has been a bit speedy.       Best Play:  #3 American Know…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  9/3/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Saratoga – Race 6      Race overview:  A relatively modest—by Saratoga standards—MSW for 2yofs going 7Fs on the main track.       Pace:  It should be honest, as a few have shown speed and are (obviously) stretching out, and there are several firsters entered as well.      Trends:  The main, which has gotten plenty of use during the meet, continues to play fair when it’s fast, though early speed, at the very least, is preferred, as closers are having trouble getting there.       Best Play:  #2 Genetics (3-1): Mott…