Handicapping Articles

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/24/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 2      Race overview:  A restricted 2yo MSW sprinting 5 1/2Fs on the main, in a race where, even for this level, looks subpar.       Pace:  There’s a full field of 11, many of which have never started, so it should be honest up front.      Trends:  The main track was speedy and played to the inside a bit last week, so you should be close early.       Best Play:  #9 LET’S GO MARK (3-1): Stiff class dropper was facing open MSW foes in…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/23/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 7      Race overview:  An extremely deep and competitive N1X sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf, with a full field of 10 entered.       Pace:  It’s a turf sprint, so there will be plenty of heat up front, especially since there are a slew of dirt runners trying to the surface for the first time.      Trends:  They just aren’t running enough turf races to distinguish anything.       Best Play:  #3 COUNTERSTRIKE (10-1) (turf only): Stalker endured a wide trip last time but…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/22/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 1      Race overview:  A relatively modest 10k MCL sprinting 6Fs on the main.       Pace:  It looks honest, especially with the ML favorite (#1 King of Kentucky 9-5) down on the inside with plenty of speed.      Trends:  The main track was speedy and played to the inside a bit last week, so taking runners who are forwardly placed might be the best idea.       Best Play:  #8 SWAGGISH (3-1): Asmussen charge has been freshened, drops, and runs as a first-time gelding for…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/18/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 2      Race overview:  A very deep and competitive 25k claimer going a mile on the main, in a race where everyone can win, but it’s #1 ON A SPREE (3-1) who enters off a powerhouse win and now goes OTC for Sharp.       Pace:  Expect a compact group early, as there doesn’t appear to be any true speed, and a few of these might struggle to go this far as well, which might temper the enthusiasm early.       Trends:  They’ve only switched to The…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/17/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 3      Race overview:  A compact and competitive 20k claimer sprinting 6 1/2Fs on the main, with several contenders, though #4 COURTHOUSE COVE (2-1) seemingly holding all the aces.       Pace:  It looks honest, though there’s also no real true sprint speed either.      Trends:  They’ve only switched to The Pea Patch for two days of racing, and Sunday was run over a very sloppy track, so let’s take a wait-and-see approach before determining how things might be playing.       Best Play:  #4 COURTHOUSE…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/15/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 3      Race overview:  A mixed bag of 3yo claimers going 6Fs on the main track, with several coming in off poor performances, which is not the case at all for #5 ATKINS (7-2).       Pace:  There’s no true speedster here, though several want to be close early, so the pace appears to be honest enough.      Trends:  They’ve only switched to The Pea Patch for two days of racing, and Sunday was run over a very sloppy track, so let’s take a wait-and-see approach…

Date:  6/11/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Belmont Park – Race 1      Race overview:  A relatively meek N1X going a mile on the Widener for fillies & mares, with very few who have any form or upside, which is not the case at all with #6 PARTY ON GIRL (3-1).       Pace:  It should be honest enough, as a few stretch out and have been chasing fast splits sprinting.      Trends:  The turf has been hard and fast, so the splits have been hot, and, for the most part, speed has held well.       Best Play:  #6 PARTY ON GIRL (3-1) (turf only): Stalker…