Handicapping Articles

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/21/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 7      Race overview:  A relatively modest MSW with several firsters and two proven runners, #2 WILD THINKER (5-2) AND #5 Briterdayzahead (3-1) who look much the best.       Pace:  It figures quick, as more than a few have shown speed, and there are several firsters as well.      Trends:  With a few exceptions, the main track was very speedy last week when fast (it was an off-track Sunday), so leaning towards horses with tactical speed, at the very least, seems the play.      …

Tuesday, May 23 RACE 5 BEST PLAY # 1- Your Awesome Boss — Showed marked improvement in his second start of the season moving back to the claiming ranks and should be at top of his game in third start of form cycle. RACE PACE #4 Professor Dave may be clear of the front end. Just a question of if he’ll come back. TRENDS Off the pace runners flourished on the Wednesday card. ANGLES #1 Your Awesome Boss comes off an much improved effort when returned to the claiming ranks and should be able to work out a trip breaking from the rail The play 5th race Exacta…

Monday, May 22 RACE 2 BEST PLAY 2-Pot of Gold — The Christophe Clement second time starter was well backed in his Aqueduct career debut and will find Finger Lakes rivals much easier. RACE PACE Don’t expect a fast pace. The early speed may come from the rail horse Connect the Brocks. TRENDS Outside closers dominated on May 19. The last live card run. ANGLES Was the public choice in his initial start. The Clement barn wins at a high percentage at Finger Lakes. This well-bred colt should improve off the race. The play is the early double #1 & #3 over to the #2. FGL MEET: 7…

Happy Preakness Day!  For the first time since the current Triple Crown schedule began in 1969 we have only one Derby runner entered back in the Preakness Stakes.  As a result “new shooter” is the term of the week. One potential new shooter, Forte, is not entered today after being placed on a fourteen day Vet Scratch list on Derby day and is not yet cleared to run. Sadly, we also lost First Mission from the field to injury.  The Grade III Dinner Party has a competitive field of seven headlined by Pegasus Turf winner Atone.   Race 8 The Dinner Party – Grade III  One Mile and One…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/20/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Pimlico – Race 7      Race overview:  A competitive renewal of the Gallorette for fillies and mares routing 1 1/16 miles on the turf.       Pace:  It should be measured, as there’s no real pure speedsters and several who want to sit close, which says this will turn into a stretch sprint off the far turn.      Trends:  With the meet just four days in, and very few turf races run so far, it’s tough to get a true feel, though this is a course that can be a…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/19/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Pimlico – Race 9      Race overview:  A competitive renewal of the 100k Very One fir fillies & mares sprinting on the turf.       Pace:  It looks supersonic, as there are several—including all the ML favorites—that want to fly early, which means something almost has to give late.      Trends:  With the meet just four days in, and very few turf races run so far, it’s tough to get a true feel, though this is a course that can be a little more forgiving to stalker/closers.      …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/18/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 5      Race overview:  A deep 30k MCL sprinting on the main going 6 ½ Fs, in a race that serves as a swing race in all the horizontal exotics.       Pace:  It looks hot and contested, as there are a trio on that want to motor early, which should put #8 KUPP (4-1) in a good spot from close range towards their outside.      Trends:  With a few exceptions, the main track was very speedy last week when fast (it was an off-track Sunday),…

  Wednesday,  May 17    RACE 4   BEST PLAY  6- Anything Pazible looks to be a solid play in the fourth race.  Had to settle for second behind lone speed winner in 2023 return race.   RACE PACE  Doesn’t seem to be a lot of pace entered. Production Credit could be the one to be the early target.  TRENDS  The racetrack played much fairer last week.   ANGLES  Anything Pazible had four victories in 2022 and should be sharper with a race under his belt in 2023.  The fourth race exacta appears to be the play; 6 over to the 2-3-5.   FGL MEET: FGL MEET: 4/2-0-1 (+3.60) 

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/14/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 5      Race overview:  A deep 10k claimer going 6 ½ Fs on the main that could go many different ways, so looking for value gives you a big leg up on the betting public.        Pace:  There’s not much here, and #2 Dark Hedges (7-2) should control things, but the extra half-furlong late could be a problem.      Trends:  The main track had a speed/inside feel to it early on Derby Day but it evened out late for sure. And as a whole, it’s…

  Tuesday, May 16    RACE 1   BEST PLAY  4- In Traffic starts off the card in the initial route race of the 2023 season. The switch to this circuit and the class relief should get him his second career score.   RACE PACE  Summer Nitro — figures to be the inside speed on the stretch-out.   TRENDS  Speed and stalkers dominated last Monday but the track played much fairer on Tuesday.  ANGLES  In past years, horses that competed in 2023 routes have traditionally run well in early season distance races.  The early Daily Double (races 1-2) is today’s play. 4 over to 2-7.  FGL MEET: 4/2-0-1 (+3.60)