Handicapping Articles

  Wednesday,  May 17    RACE 4   BEST PLAY  6- Anything Pazible looks to be a solid play in the fourth race.  Had to settle for second behind lone speed winner in 2023 return race.   RACE PACE  Doesn’t seem to be a lot of pace entered. Production Credit could be the one to be the early target.  TRENDS  The racetrack played much fairer last week.   ANGLES  Anything Pazible had four victories in 2022 and should be sharper with a race under his belt in 2023.  The fourth race exacta appears to be the play; 6 over to the 2-3-5.   FGL MEET: FGL MEET: 4/2-0-1 (+3.60) 

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/14/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 5      Race overview:  A deep 10k claimer going 6 ½ Fs on the main that could go many different ways, so looking for value gives you a big leg up on the betting public.        Pace:  There’s not much here, and #2 Dark Hedges (7-2) should control things, but the extra half-furlong late could be a problem.      Trends:  The main track had a speed/inside feel to it early on Derby Day but it evened out late for sure. And as a whole, it’s…

  Tuesday, May 16    RACE 1   BEST PLAY  4- In Traffic starts off the card in the initial route race of the 2023 season. The switch to this circuit and the class relief should get him his second career score.   RACE PACE  Summer Nitro — figures to be the inside speed on the stretch-out.   TRENDS  Speed and stalkers dominated last Monday but the track played much fairer on Tuesday.  ANGLES  In past years, horses that competed in 2023 routes have traditionally run well in early season distance races.  The early Daily Double (races 1-2) is today’s play. 4 over to 2-7.  FGL MEET: 4/2-0-1 (+3.60) 

  Monday, May 15    RACE 5   BEST PLAY  9- Riding On a Winner was narrowly defeated in her Lakes return going a shorter distance on May 2. Faces a similar field here and gets an extra furlong to score the victory.  RACE PACE  Strong Alpha is expected to set pace from her inside draw.  TRENDS  Speed and stalkers dominated last Monday but the track played fairer on Tuesday.   ANGLES  The 4.5-furlong distance was the culprit for why this mare got defeated in her Finger Lakes return.  Start a Daily Double on races 5 and 6.  The play is the 9 over to 7-8-9.  FGL MEET: 4-2-0-1 (+$3.60) 

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/13/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 3      Race overview:  A predictably deep and competitive 20k starter-allowance that has several with winning chances.       Pace:  There’s not much here, and several who want to come from well out of it, which means #3 SLAM DUNK SERMON (9-2) has a big edge, provided he breaks this time.      Trends:  The main track had a speed/inside feel to it early on Derby Day but it evened out late for sure. And as a whole, it’s been fair throughout the meet, though speed and…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/12/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 4      Race overview:  A compact 50k claimer for older sprinting 6Fs on the main.       Pace:  There’s not much here, which means from a perfect outside attack post, #6 DIVINE LEADER (5-2) should be primed the entire way.      Trends:  The main track had a speed/inside feel to it early on Derby Day but it evened out late for sure. And as a whole, it’s been fair throughout the meet, though speed and being forward is always preferred.        Best Play:  #6 DIVINE…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/11/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 3      Race overview:  A predictably deep and competitive 50k starter-allowance for f/m going 6 ½ furlongs on the main.       Pace:  There’s not much here, as #3 Tell Me When (7-2) should be controlling, with #5 CHARLEE MAE (8-1) closest, while several other major contenders have no speed at all.      Trends:  The main track had a speed/inside feel to it early on Derby Day but it evened out late for sure. And as a whole, it’s been fair throughout the meet, though…

  Tuesday, May 9    RACE 1   BEST PLAY  3-Cavaradossi should get the card started with a victory. He won by 14 lengths at Finger Lakes last June. Returns this year from Aqueduct at reduced level  RACE PACE  Double Vision seems to have the early foot outside.   TRENDS  After three racing cards front runners have prevailed due to the shorter distances being run.   ANGLES  2022 leading trainer already on top to start 2023 meet and when jockey John Davila Jr. riding they combine to win at a healthy 33% together.   Early Daily Double play, 3-Cavaradossi over to horses 2-4-7 in the 2nd race.  FGL MEET: 2-1-0-0 ($3.00) through…

  Monday, May 8    RACE 7   BEST PLAY  2- Lockbox figures to be a tough one to get by in the 7th race. She ran well to be 2nd against a better rival on Opening Day.  RACE PACE  If Lockbox breaks well she should be with pace from her inside post.   TRENDS  Front runners continue to dominate at the abbreviated early season distances.   ANGLES  Has plenty of fitness competing throughout the Winter at Aqueduct.   Late Daily Double play.  2-Lockbox over to horses 2-6-8 in the last.  FGL MEET: 2-1-0-0 ($3.00) through 5/2         

Happy Derby Day!    This is a particularly good betting card highlighted by wide open editions of the Turf Classic and the Kentucky Derby.  All three Derby Also Eligibles have drawn in due to scratches in the main body. As we learned last year – don’t discount them. If they are live runners they can be dangerous from the outside.    Race 11- The Turf Classic – Grade I  One Mile and One Furlong on the Turf for Four Year Olds and Upward  Ocean Atlantique: Front running Mike Maker trainee tries graded stakes company in North America for the first time after two wins from three starts this year…