Handicapping Articles

Happy Derby Day!    This is a particularly good betting card highlighted by wide open editions of the Turf Classic and the Kentucky Derby.  All three Derby Also Eligibles have drawn in due to scratches in the main body. As we learned last year – don’t discount them. If they are live runners they can be dangerous from the outside.    Race 11- The Turf Classic – Grade I  One Mile and One Furlong on the Turf for Four Year Olds and Upward  Ocean Atlantique: Front running Mike Maker trainee tries graded stakes company in North America for the first time after two wins from three starts this year…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/6/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 7      Race overview:  A deep and competitive renewal of the G2 Turf Sprint, with countless win possibilities, though none have the upside and potential move forward like #4 BIG INVASION (7-2).       Pace:  It’s a G2 turf sprint so they’ll be flying early, and there are several that want to be a part of it, so wiring seems a bit implausible.       Trends:  They just haven’t run enough races over the new turf to get a true feel, though it undoubtedly should be a…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/5/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 10      Race overview:  As good a renewal of the G2 Edgewood for 3yo fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the turf as you’ll ever see, as there are upwards of 10 potential winners in the field-of-11, which means taking a stand gives you a huge leg up on the rest of the betting public.       Pace:  There’s not much here, so they’ll be bunched early and sprint off the far turn, where acceleration and racing luck will both come into play.      Trends:  They…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/4/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 7      Race overview:  A deep 50k MCL with more than a few possibilities, though none have the upside of MSW dropper #8 KIKI KRAZY (7-2)       Pace:  It’s a full field, so it should be hot and contested, which means a rating gear is preferred.      Trends:  It’s still early in the meet, but the main track has tilted towards off-the-pace types, as speed has struggled to hold, for the most part.       Best Play:  #8 KIKI KRAZY (7-2): MSW dropper has had…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/2/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 9      Race overview:  A wide-open MSW routing at 1 ¼ miles on the main track for 3up.       Pace:  Expect things to be a crawl early, as these maidens will be tested running the Kentucky Derby distance, which means they will be handled gently early on, in the hopes of saving something for later.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #7 GRAGGADOCIOUS (9-2): This is a pedigree race as much as anything, and this Gun Runner gelding has it in spades, as a…

new  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  5/3/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 7      Race overview:  A solid, though hardly spectacular N1X going a tricky 7 ½ furlongs on the main.       Pace:  It looks potentially hot and contested, as there are a trio who want to be involved early, and all three are stretching out off shorter sprints last time, so a tactical gear could come in handy.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #5 SPARTAN ARMY (8-1): FG invader woke up as a first-time gelding last time, and had a troubled trip too,…

  Tuesday, May 2    RACE 3   BEST PLAY  # 3 Misbehaved is the horse to beat in race 3. He has a class edge on his bottom level claiming rivals.  RACE PACE  #1 Uncle Vic and #2 Smart Storm should provide the early pace for Misbehaved to run at.  TRENDS  The track played fair for the most part, as expected due to short 4-1/2 furlong distance front speed dominated going 11 for 16.   ANGLES  The big class drop too large to ignore. Trainer Jeff Englehart and jockey Andre Worrie win at 34% together here at Finger Lakes.                                                                          The Play:    Use #3 Misbehavin on top in trifectas…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/29/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 5      Race overview:  A very weak MSW for 3up sprinting on the main, and it’s the distance that’s key here, as it will play to #4 MAPPER (3-1) a lot more than it will to #7 Sidekick (5-2).       Pace:  It should be hot and contested, as not only are there ore than a few who want to be involved early, but there is a slew of firsters entered too, several of which have bullet drills for their unveiling.      Trends:  N/A      …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/27/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Keeneland – Race 8      Race overview:  A non-descript N2L allowance, with a few who seem stuck in neutral, which isn’t the case with #5 BRAGANZA (5-2), who enters off a strong 2nd last time at FG.       Pace:  There’s not a ton of true sprint speed here, with #3 Send for Me (7-2) likely making the lead, so laying close early seems imperative for success late.      Trends:  The main track has played fair for the most part, with a slight tilt towards speed last Friday and Saturday,…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/26/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Keeneland – Race 8      Race overview:  A weak N2X routing 1 ½ miles on the turf for fillies and mares, with the obvious exception of #7 BROADWAY BOOGIE (9-5), who is using this as a pit stop to another graded stakes try.       Pace:  It looks on the slow side, as there’s not here, so expect a tight pack that will turn into a sprint off the far turn.      Trends:  They don’t run enough turf races to confidently think there’s a trend, though the majority of the…