Handicapping Articles

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/29/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 3      Race overview:  A solid 12.5k N2L routing on the Tapeta with more than a few ways you can go.       Pace:  Expect a bunched group, as there’s not a lot of speed on paper, which means this should turn into a sprint off the far turn.      Trends:  Stalker/closers have been the way to go routing on the Tapeta, as speed tends to come back, no matter how slow they go early.       Best Play:  #7 ZEN (3-1): Versatile sort was a…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/26/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 2      Race overview:  A very weak bottom-level claimer sprinting on the main in a race that looks like easy pickings for #1 TWEAQUED (6-5).       Pace:  There’s not a lot here, so expect a bunched group early.      Trends:  You need to be close sprinting on dirt, as races rarely fall apart.       Best Play:  #1 TEAQUED (6-5): Nothing crafty here on a card that doesn’t have much to lean on, but this dropped simply looks spotted to score off the Saffie claim…

Happy Louisiana Derby Day!  This is the big day at Fair Grounds headlined by the Louisiana Derby. For reasons that escape me this race remains a Grade II, even though it has become a premier Derby prep especially since the distance was extended to a mile and three sixteenths in 2020. Recent winners have included Gun Runner,  Epicenter, and Hot Rod Charlie.    Race 11 – The Fair Grounds Oaks – Grade II  One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies   The Fair Grounds Oaks, which awards 100-40-20-10 points for entry into the Kentucky Oaks, has a surprisingly compact field of five. There…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/25/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 6      Race overview:  A solid AOC routing on the turf with countless contenders, though none have the upside—and likely talent—that #1 SIEGE OF BOSTON (4-1), who looks poised for a breakthrough.        Pace:  There’s little to none here, so expect a bunched group and a race that will turn into a 3F sprint late.      Trends:  Tactical speed plays on the turf, as races are rarely won from the back, though this one seems as much about a trip as anything.       Best…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/24/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 9      Race overview:  A full field of bottom-level claimers going a one-turn mile on the main, and there are plenty of ways to go, though #6 RHYMES LIKE DIMES (3-1) looks tough on the Saffie re-claim.       Pace:  It should be hot and contested, as both #2 Ben Copenhagen and #4 Rave On want to motor early on.      Trends:  The one-turn mile races are tricky, but you want to be able to stick close early, as the field can get gapped out entering…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/22/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 9      Race overview:  A deep and competitive 35k MCL routing on the turf, with a seemingly endless amount of possibilities, though it’s #7 RED’S REVENGE (4-1) who looks a standout off a nightmare trip last time and key trainer change off the claim.       Pace:  It’s a deep field filled with a few firsters and stretchout sprinters, so the pace should be honest to fast.      Trends:  You want to be able to show tactical speed, at the very least, on the turf, as…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/22/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 2      Race overview:  A modest bottom-level N3L at 1-mile on the main, with several coming in off mixed form, which isn’t the case with #4 LITTLE BELITA (6-1), who has caught good groups in fast races for the level of late, and more than held her own.       Pace:  There are no burners here, so you better be able to lay close early.      Trends:  The one-turn mile races are tricky, but you want to be able to stick close early, as the…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/19/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 10      Race overview:  A solid 50k MOC sprinting on the main with several who have a right to make a dent, though open MSW dropper #3 POWERTRAIN (8-1) seems at the top of that list.       Pace:  It should be honest, as more than a few want to be involved early.      Trends:  You want to be close sprinting on the main, as horses just don’t make up significant ground without a complete meltdown.       Best Play:  #3 POWERTRAIN (8-1): MSW dropper chased…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/18/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 5      Race overview:  A deep and competitive MSW sprinting on the turf with numerous possibilities, which means an aggressive single will give you a big leg up on the rest of the betting public.       Pace:  It’s a turf sprint, so expect things to get hot and contested early on.      Trends:  You want to be close sprinting on the turf, as horses just don’t make up significant ground, so at the very least tactical speed is a must.       Best Play:  #6…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/17/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 2      Race overview:  A modest state-bred MSW going 7Fs on the main, where the proven dirt runners just don’t inspire, which means a fresh new face is in a good spot.       Pace:  There’s very little here on paper, so being able to lay close early should be extremely beneficial.       Trends:  You want to be close sprinting on the main, as horses just don’t make up significant ground, though at 7Fs things can temper a bit.       Best Play:  #2 CONFER (5-1):…