Handicapping Articles

Happy Wood Memorial Day!  Today we get our first big race day in New York with four graded stakes races co-headlined by the Grade I Carter and the Grade II Wood Memorial. The late Pick 5 and Pick 4 sequences at Aqueduct are pretty tough with a state bred maiden filly and mare turf sprint carded in between the Carter and Wood. Wouldn’t all stakes Pick 4 made sense. Oh well, good luck to all!  Race 8 – The Carter Handicap  – Grade I  Seven Furlongs on the Dirt for Four Year Olds and Upward  Today’s Flavor: Winner of four in a row since George Weaver took over…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/7/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Keeneland – Race 8      Race overview:  A strong renewal of the G3 Transylvania for 3yos routing on the turf, though #11 CARL SPACKLER (3-1) is a true star in the making.       Pace:  It should be honest, at the very least, as there are more than a few here who want to be close early, which means they could be forced to motor to secure position into the first turn.      Trends:  The ONE SHEET transitions from a GP turf course where you basically have to be close…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/2/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 1      Race overview:  A below-average 16k claimer routing on the turf, which means the class riser #3 WINNING FACTOR (5-2) should be tough.       Pace:  It looks on the slow side, so expect a compact group early and a sprint off the far turn.      Trends:  You want to be close on the turf, as horses don’t come back often, and it played out that way in the middle-distance routes Saturday.       Best Play:  #3 WINNING FACTOR (5-2): Veteran impressed winning on the…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/1/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 4      Race overview:  A solid AOC for older going a mile on the main.       Pace:  Ut should be honest, and potentially hot, as more than a few want to be involved early, and things tend to get heated at this trip.      Trends:  You want to be close on the main, but at a one-turn mile, if they go fast early, it’s tougher to last (as opposed to 6 and 7F sprints).       Best Play:  #1 GIANT GAME (9-2): Improving and classy…

Happy Florida Derby Day!  This does not appear to be the deepest Florida Derby field as only half of the entrants have run a Beyer fig north of 85.  However, this field does include the clear leader of the division, Forte, who cemented his position with a dominating win in the Fountain of Youth.  Todd Pletcher will saddle Forte as he aims to extend his own record win total in the Florida Derby to seven.     Race 12 – The Gulfstream Park Oaks – Grade II  One Mile and a Sixteenth on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies  Flakes: Runs here off a win against N1X Florida…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/31/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 7      Race overview:  A compact but stakes-caliber AOC sprinting on the main for fillies & mares, in what looks like a key race in the making.       Pace:  It should be hot and contested, as the classy comebacker #2 Spirit Wind (8-5) will motor early, but #3 Bluefield (4-1) to her outside won’t make it easy.      Trends:  You ant to be close sprinting on the main, as races rarely fall apart, especially at this classy level.       Best Play:  #4 YOU…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/30/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 4      Race overview:  A good Florida-bred AOC at a one-turn mile on the main track, with several capable runners, though the class-dropping #1 UNIVERSAL PAYDAY (7-2) looks to be in a very good spot against a potential sketchy favorite in #5 Floki’s Flight (7-5).       Pace:  It looks, as more than a few want to motor early, including #5 Floki’s Flight, who comes in off a layoff after a disappointing effort at the level (at odds-on) where he got dueled into the ground.     …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/29/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 3      Race overview:  A solid 12.5k N2L routing on the Tapeta with more than a few ways you can go.       Pace:  Expect a bunched group, as there’s not a lot of speed on paper, which means this should turn into a sprint off the far turn.      Trends:  Stalker/closers have been the way to go routing on the Tapeta, as speed tends to come back, no matter how slow they go early.       Best Play:  #7 ZEN (3-1): Versatile sort was a…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/26/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 2      Race overview:  A very weak bottom-level claimer sprinting on the main in a race that looks like easy pickings for #1 TWEAQUED (6-5).       Pace:  There’s not a lot here, so expect a bunched group early.      Trends:  You need to be close sprinting on dirt, as races rarely fall apart.       Best Play:  #1 TEAQUED (6-5): Nothing crafty here on a card that doesn’t have much to lean on, but this dropped simply looks spotted to score off the Saffie claim…

Happy Louisiana Derby Day!  This is the big day at Fair Grounds headlined by the Louisiana Derby. For reasons that escape me this race remains a Grade II, even though it has become a premier Derby prep especially since the distance was extended to a mile and three sixteenths in 2020. Recent winners have included Gun Runner,  Epicenter, and Hot Rod Charlie.    Race 11 – The Fair Grounds Oaks – Grade II  One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies   The Fair Grounds Oaks, which awards 100-40-20-10 points for entry into the Kentucky Oaks, has a surprisingly compact field of five. There…