Handicapping Articles

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/11/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  2       Race overview  A seemingly modest but full field of 2yos in an RNA MSW at 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  Things could be honest up front, as there are several who are stretching out, and with a quick run to the first turn, more than a few might be motoring early on.      Trends  The main track played to speed and was FAST, as the fractions were ridiculously quick, yet horses kept going, so make sure to…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/10/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  2       Race overview  A solid, full field of 2yofs in an RNA MSW at 6 furlongs.       Pace  It looks like #4 SWEET MUSIC (4-1) can control things early, as she’s fastest, and there aren’t too many others who have shown an abundance of early foot so far.      Trends  The main track played to speed and was FAST, as the fractions were ridiculously quick, yet horses kept going, so make sure to monitor things early in the week and proceed accordingly. …

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/9/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  7       Race overview  A compact field in an AOC for 3fs going 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  There’s not much here, which should allow #1 SILVER ROSE (2-1) to make the point, and hopefully only widen from there.      Trends  The main track played to speed and was FAST, as the fractions were ridiculously quick, yet horses kept going, so make sure to monitor things early in the week and proceed accordingly.      Best Play  #1 SILVER ROSE (2-1):…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/6/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  2       Race overview  A full field of 50k MCL’ers for 2yof at 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  It should be honest, as there’s several first-time starters, as well as several with experience who have shown speed.      Trends  N/A       Best Play  #10 WHEREVER WE ARE (4-1): Ward firster has JV up, who rides all the live runners at Kee for this barn, and with a modest group of proven runners, a perfect outside attack post, and a trainer…

Happy Champagne Day!  There are two Breeder’s Cup “win and you’re in” juvenile races at the Big A: the Champagne for the colts and the Frizette for the fillies. These Grade 1s also award points to the 2025 Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks respectively. This very nice card is rounded out by two Grade IIIs: the Belmont Turf Sprint and the Jockey Club Derby Invitational.   The four graded stakes comprise the first four legs of a mandatory payout Pick 5. I give two ways to play a caveman Pick 5 ticket one where I single the strong favorites in two legs and another that uses alternatives in each…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/5/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  3       Race overview  A weak MSW for 2yo fillies at 7Fs on the main track.       Pace  It should be honest, as there’s more than a few first-time starters, and a few of the experienced ones have shown some early foot too.      Trends  N/A       Best Play  #4 IMPULSE BUY (5-2): Brisset filly was 5-1 and ran on debut at Ellis for a barn that rarely wins with a firster, but is 28% with 2nd-time maidens, which says this was the…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/4/24      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  5       Race overview  A predictably deep and competitive full field of N2X for 3upfm going 1 1/8 miles on the turf.       Pace  Expect a strung out field, as there are a few speeds (#7 and #9), some stalkers, and some deep closers as well, and at this demanding distance, stamina should come into play late.      Trends  N/A – They won’t be running many on the turf during the meet, but at this distance, over this course, stamina is a bit more…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/29/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  6       Race overview  A compact field of six in an MSW going a stamina-testing 1 ¼ miles.       Pace  Expect it to be a crawl early, as this is not a distance you’re going to see often on the main track, and several are no guarantee to see it out either.      Trends  It’s all dirt all the time at the meet, and the main track continues to play fair, as all running styles have had repeatedly won races.     …

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/28/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  1       Race overview  A solid 30k MCL for 3up at 6 ½ furlongs        Pace  It looks on the tepid side, as there aren’t many who want to motor early, so tactical speed seems essential.       Trends  It’s all dirt all the time at the meet, and the main track continues to play fair, as all running styles have had repeatedly won races.      Best Play  #6 GUN BARREL (3-1): MSW dropper looks spotted to score with apprentice son Erik…

Happy Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Day!  Nice card at the Big A today with four graded stakes headlined by the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. The wonderful seven year old mare, War Like Goddess, who has won the last two renditions of the Joe Hirsch is back today to defend her crown against the boys.    The Woodward comes up short as it will be scratched down to four with Mott indicating that Kay Army won’t run. Nonetheless it is a competitive group where the the case can be made for three of the four runners. Sadly, the Woodward is getting squeezed and I fear for the future…