Handicapping Articles

Happy Preakness Day!  This is a nice Preakness field headlined by Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan.  The scratch of Muth clarifies the race flow and sets up Imagination as the likely early pace. The question is whether he will get an easy uncontested lead.  The other impact of the Muth scratch is to ensure that Mystik Dan will be a heavy favorite, and therefore an underlay in my view.  Trivia Question: The Dinner Party Stakes was first run in 1870 during Pimlico’s first meet. Who won that first rendition of The Dinner Party?  Race 12 The Dinner Party – Grade III  One Mile and One Furlong on the…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/18/24      Featured track  Pimlico      Race number  11       Race overview  A deep renewal of the Jim McKay Turf Sprint, for 3up going 5Fs on the turf.       Pace  It’s a full field of turf stakes sprinters, several of which want to motor early, so things look extremely hot and contented up front.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #12 BEER CAN MAN (5-2) (turf only): Defending champion was thrown to the wolves in a tough Kee G2 off the long layoff, in a race he obviously needed, but with…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/17/24      Featured track  Pimlico      Race number  8       Race overview  A solid renewal of the Allaire Dupont Distaff, for 3upfm going 1 1/8 miles on the main track.       Pace  Don’t expect much heat here, as there are no true speed horses, and this could play like a turf race, slow early and a sprint late.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #8 SHOTGUN HOTTIE (9-5): The class has been facing tons better and holding her own, has the speed to be close throughout, and could actually offer a…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/16/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  4       Race overview  A full field but a relatively modest group in a N1X for 3upfm going 5 Fs on the turf.       Pace  It’s a turf sprint, so thing should be honest up front, as more than a few want to motor early.       Trends  N/A      Best Play  #8 TWIRL AROUND (5-2) (turf only): Stalker came back running at Kee, for a Foley barn that always aims here, so she looks primed, which is more than you can say…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/12/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  9       Race overview  An extremely weak N1X for 3up going 1 1/8 miles on the turf.       Pace  It seems honest enough for a turf route going this far, as there are more than a few who want to attend to things early, though the splits likely won’t be all that fast either.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #2 Athens Moon (3-1) (turf only): Stalker didn’t fire at FG off the claim but it was a close 8th, but…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/11/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  4       Race overview  A deep and competitive 50k starter-allowance for 3upfms going 6 ½ furlongs on the main track.       Pace  It looks hot and contested, as there are more than a few here who want to be involved early and often.      Trends  The main track was fair and consistent throughout Derby Week, regardless of the surface condition, so you should not be deterred from playing anyone with a contrasting running style.      Best Play  #8 De’ Ans Eighty…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau 5/10/24 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 6   Race overview A deep and competitive 10k claimer going 1-mile on the main track.   Pace It looks a bit on the tepid side, as there’s not a lot of burners in here, though at this trip, things can still get heated up front. Trends The main track was fair and consistent throughout Derby Week, regardless of the surface condition, so you should not be deterred from playing anyone with a contrasting running style. Best Play #9 ALL WEST (4-1): Two-turn runner cuts back and goes off the Atras claim for…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/9/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  6       Race overview  A wildly deep and competitive 30k starter-allowance for 3up going 1 1 1/16 miles on the main.       Pace  It looks hot and contested, as there are more than a few who want to motor early, which suggests this one will tilt towards the off-the-pace runners.      Trends  The main track was fair and consistent throughout Derby Week, regardless of the surface condition, so you should not be deterred from playing anyone with a contrasting running style.     …

Happy Derby Day!    With the Baffert trainees ineligible to run, the Derby would appear to be a two horse race between Sierra Leone and Fierceness. However, in a twenty horse field plenty of things can go awry. The Turf Classic features a Euro vs. American match-up with a Charlie Appleby trainee taking on an uncoupled Chad Brown entry with a strong Shug runner.  Race 11 The Turf Classic – Grade I  One Mile and One Furlong on the Turf for Four Year Olds and Upward   Integration: In the Makers Mark Mile he couldn’t run down Master of the Seas as he was wide on the far turn…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/4/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  10       Race overview  A wildly deep and contentious renewal of the G1 Churchill Downs for 4up going 7Fs on the main track.       Pace  For a 7F G1 sprint there’s not a ton of it on paper, but there’s also a full field, so the pace should develop, though coming from the back and winning might be a big ask, and there are more than a few of those types here.      Trends  It was just a few days early in the…