Handicapping Articles

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 5/15/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 7   Race overview A very weak 12.5 starter-allowance for fm4up at 6 furlongs.   Pace It looks honest but not overly heated, as several want to be close, but there are no true burners signed on either. Trends The main track seemed to be slightly on the speedy side, though nothing too out of the ordinary. Best Play #2 POP ROX (6-5): GP invader goes for D’Angelo and Dubb, who have partnered to do some good things over the past yeyar, and this miss enters fresh, has won four in…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 5/14/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 4   Race overview A seemingly modest (on paper) MSW for 2yos at 5 furlongs.   Pace It’s a full field of (mostly) first-time starters, so things figure honest on the front end. Trends The main track seemed to be slightly on the speedy side, though nothing too out of the ordinary. Best Play #6 CUT THROAT (3-1): Rivelli firster (27%) comes in from Hawthorne with bullets for his unveiling, for a barn that routinely invades to win a few of these every year, and this son for freshman sire Cyberknife—who…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 5/10/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 6   Race overview A solid bottom-level 12.5k MCL for 3up at 7Fs on the main track.   Pace It’s a full field and looks honest enough, as there are more than a few who want to be close and/or involved throughout. Trends The main track seemed to be slightly on the speedy side the first two days of the week, though nothing too out of the ordinary. Best Play #5 RICHEZTOO (5-1): Pace player was a strong 2nd at the level with a “big” figure, now meets a few who…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 5/9/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 4 Race overview A strong 40k claimer for 4up at 1-mile on the main track. Pace There’s absolutely none here except 6 I DON’T GET IT (9-5), who looks as loose as can be on the front end. Trends Derby Week seemed to produce a fair main track, with horses coming from everywhere, and using all running styles. Best Play #6 I DON’T GET IT (9-5): The speed has been freshened since an easy 35k win at GP, so it’s a confident move he rises slightly for his return, he lures…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 5/8/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 3   Race overview A solid 16k conditioned claimer for 3up at 7 furlongs.   Pace It should be honest enough up front, as both inside runners want to be on the lead early, and this is a demanding distance as well. Trends Derby Week seemed to produce a fair main track, with horses coming from everywhere, and using all running styles. Best Play #5 GALLO DE FUEGO (4-1): Florida invader goes for a very sharp and shrewd team of Gallegos and Amaty, ran well against better in both starts this…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 5/7/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 2 Race overview A solid 25k claimer for 4up at 1-mile on the main track. Pace There’s not much here, at this is a trip that can be tough to make up ground, so tactical speed should be at a premium. Trends Derby Week seemed to produce a fair main track, with horses coming from everywhere, and using all running styles. Best Play #6 DE’ MEDICI (2-1): Tactical runner aired at this trip here in November and will now run on the main for the first time, and has a huge flow…

Happy Derby Day! We have a very competitive renewal of the Kentucky Derby as evidenced by a lukewarm 4-1 ML favorite (Renegade). Frankly, a win by half of this field would not be that big of a surprise. Trivia Question: Why is the Derby called “The Run for the Roses”? Race 11 The Turf Classic – Grade I One Mile and One Furlong on the Turf for Four Year Olds and Upward         Corruption: Runs here after a second in the Pan American where he was collared late by Far Bridge (for the second year in a row) and earned a 97 Beyer. Might see a similar trip today,…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 5/2/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 7 Race overview An extremely competitive, though hardly overwhelming, renewal of the G2 Distaff Turf Mile for fm4up. Pace There’s not much here, save for #5 Classic Q, so tactical speed, at the vey least, seems imperative. Trends The CD typically plays on the fair side, as it seems to be kind to all running styles, though as a general rule of thumb those who can lay close to the pace should always be preferred. Best Play #3 PORTFOLIO DURATION (4-1): Lightly-raced Brown filly is aggressively spotted off a dominant 4…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 5/1/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 11 Race overview An extremely competitive, albeit relatively modest, renewal of the G1 La Troienne for fm4up at 1 1/16 miles. Pace It looks honest enough, as there are several who want to be close early, though there are no pure speeds signed on either. Trends The main track played fair Tuesday (it was muddy Wednesday), though it’s usually speedy and can be inside as well Dery Week, so take note as the days progress—provided the track is fast. Best Play #9 FULLY SUBSCRIBED (7-2): Brown filly has not been seen…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau Date 4/30/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 1   Race overview A compact but competitive 50k N3L for 3up at 6 furlongs.   Pace It looks honest enough, as there are a few who want to be on or just off the early lead. Trends The main track played fair Tuesday, though it’s usually speedy and can be inside as well Dery Week, so take note as the days progress—provided the track is fast. Best Play #4 STAR’S IMAGE (9-2): Stalker comes into this fresh off a 1/11 layoff, and now takes blinkers-off and runs as a first-time gelding in…